AaronDLV

- Ex @Capgemini & Ex @Accenture / Ex @0xLabshq Head of Sales / Azuki and other things

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@zakiraicoder Claude

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@AzukiTCG 🔥🔥

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@astronomer_zero Slots still open ?

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

$BTC - is the bear market here?

Why using MA's is essentially gambling.

Alright, the is about the 7th time I get tagged of someone telling me the following:

"We closed below the 50W MA and are far below it, so the bear market started".

Okay, I like your thinking. Using actual data to predict price.

However, have you thoroughly fact checked this data? Who brought you to the idea, did you come up with this yourself?

All power to you, regardless of the answer, but just a simple check, can help you very far.

So I will quickly present you here why using MA's is something only "chartists" do, but has 0 use in trading as it is essentially gambling.

Indeed, I will simply and effectively show you how, it has no merit to use a random average price of the x most recent candle closes, as a metric whether price will go down or up.

The data

MA's are broad, so let's use something truly relevant right now as an example. Since so so many people are confidently and loudly preparing for the bear market, almost as if they have their limit orders ready to buy $BTC at 50k/40k/30k... wouldn't it be great to present how most of the data I have to debunk time after time (the one of the 50 W MA), is a pure myth of fairy dust...

So as mentioned, the argument goes: Astro, we closed below the 50 W MA and are significantly below it, that has "always" been a bear market trigger.

Well, let's check, and let's check properly (non cherry picked).

On the chart below, I highlighted every single weekly swing low that has formed each time $BTC fell under the 50 WMA. And I did that throughout its entire history (no cherry picking)

What's a swing low? It's per classic institutional definition: a candle where the low of the candle to the left and right are both higher than the candle itself. Indeed, the very definition of a low, in its most simple and fundamental form.

To eliminate even more noise, I only counted the swing lows where also a candle close below the 50 W MA has been placed (otherwise, a wick into the 50W MA, would also be counted as a bottom, and the data would look even less favorable for the bear market callers here, so, I choose your side wherever I can).

The times of the first weekly swing lows after which $BTC went from closing above to closing below the 50 W MA are:

➡️17 Oct 2011
➡️18 Aug 2014
➡️18 Jun 2018
➡️(25 Nov 2019)
➡️9 Mar 2020
➡️19 Jul 2020
➡️13 Dec 2021

And today:

➡️17 Nov 2025

For each of the occasions, price headed lower, 3 out of 6 times. And 3 out of 6 times, price printed the absolute bottom.

Yes, I left out 25 Nov 2019 (covid crash, if it didn't happen, it would have been a bottom, otherwise, technically price heading lower, although it went so quick, that it is hard to call it a prolonged bear market, so let's skip it. The results do not change much).

So in essence, if you are using this as a sole argument to call whether the bear market is in or not, then you are essentially betting your money on a coinflip i.e. you are gambling.

The problem with MA's

I don't really have an issue with MA's. They can be useful, but they are purely descriptive. So, they are nice to see on charts, and "chartists" often use them to describe price:

"Price is below the MA, price is above the MA, price is far below the MA, price is far above the MA"

But they are not predictive.

If price is "far" below the MA, it doesn't mean price will perform a mean reversion => followed by a reversal i.e. a bottom

Or a mean reversion => followed by continuation lower

As I have just shown with this example. To use them whether they have the power to call a bear market or not, is a complete toss-up.

And that is because of their core problem: they carry no logic. They are simply the average price of the most recent x candles. No one cares what that price is. Institutions don't care, the trend doesn't care, the macro economics don't care, the whales don't care, no one cares.

If a trend is "riding" the 20 ma, that is just a description of the steepness of the trend. If the trend changes, then all the 20 ma buyers will get rekt.

If the trend steepens even ever so slightly, then the 20 ma buyers will all get front run and have to fomo in higher.

They just describe the steepness of the trend, they don't define the trend, and the same is true for bear markets, they don't define bear markets (or bull markets either).

Conclusion

The 50 MA, and MA's in general, have no statistical power (not even negatively i.e. in counter sense), nor do they care any logic. They are completely descriptive, and completely random in predictive power.

To call whether the bear market has started, or we just printed another bull market bottom, it's best to use other, more logical and statistically powerful data.

Let this be clear. IMO anyone using MA's should just be classified as a chartist with no implication on stakes. Or he or she is just trying to describe price and has no ability to predict price, at least not using those metrics.

So all power to them, but best not to mix both up, even if said influencer tells you how "perfectly" price bounced off his or her ma. Great, but not great for consistently being successful in this game.

Successful trading and investing is just as much about using the right data, as avoiding the wrong data.

Especially the latter, so here is another piece to your puzzle of mastery.

Take it, or leave it.

This is just my view.

It's up to you if you believe it.

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@V1Zhual @Zagabond @PSAcard I would say the alphas Alt SR* , but only time will tell

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@V1Zhual Wise words Zhu. I still need to buy one of your grails. Once I'm back on my feet count on me bro

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@CarverdeMedici Alright ill dig in then ! Time limits are this short ? Or can it go to 1month for ex?

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@7316 @altcoinist

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@lokithebird We may have crossed path

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@Sykodelic_ Based , this is exactly how it should be explained

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

This should be read by everyone, especially newer people

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

If you can master this one thing you will make big money, easily.

Because making money in this game is actually very simple...

Yet it is extremely hard to action it.

Here is the hard fact you need to understand.

The more dangerous an entry feels, the safer it actually is.

And the safer an entry feels, the more dangerous it actually is.

99% of market participants get peak bearish after long corrections and peak bullish after long pumps.

This is because the prices going up gradually build confidence until they have gone up so much, bags are pushing, people are shilling their gains hard and everyone is now getting FOMO and feeling confident to buy because of green candles.

Then when prices go down, the exact same thing happens, just in reverse.

But this is literally the single worst way to behave in this market.

What you have to understand is that the longer something has dumped, the closer it is to pumping.

And the closer it has dumped to key HTF levels, the more safe it is to bid because of how likely it is to react positively to that key level.

Which is exactly why sentiment is always the worst before the market reverses.

So... if you have:

1. A long corrective price action
2. Very negative sentiment
3. At a very key support level

Your risk to buy there is SO MUCH lower than if you were to buy after a few days/weeks of pumps.

Yet, everyone does the exact opposite, every single time.

The cold hard fact is this.

The more we have dumped, the more negative the sentiment, and the closer we are to HTF support...

The more bullish you should be and the safer you should feel.

The more we have pumped, the more bullish the sentiment, and the closer we are to HTF resistance...

The more bearish you should be and the more at risk you should feel.

Winning at this game is understanding this paradox, but hardly anyone is capable of transcending their emotions and will continually make the wrong choices.

"Crypto trading and investing is the hardest way to make easy money".

Whatever seems obvious, is not.

When we have:

- Extremely negative sentiment
- Mass liquidations and capitulations
- Crypto holders rotating to pumped up stocks and metals
- Metals holders grave dancing on BTC
- Total beginners telling experienced guys its over
- FUD everywhere and arguing in group chats
- Everyone begging to just break even

At the same time as being right on HTF support, that is a fucking massive bid.

If you cannot understand that, you should give up now because you will always make the wrong choices.

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@MedraTheMain And here was my entry ! Scooped another 20k tokens :D getting close to the 100k mark

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@superjustinnn @V1Zhual W

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@AltcoinMiyagi

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

I'm ready ! IKZ ! @AzukiTCG @AzukiCarden

[Chyan | chyan.base.eth @Chyan]

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[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@AltcoinMiyagi Bearish af inverse brah

[Altcoin Miyagi🇯🇵 @AltcoinMiyagi]

AHEM FINTECH YOU SAY?

PAYMENT RAILS?

sound familiar gribbit

$TIBBIR

[AaronDLV @RDLVGA]

@altcoinist Haha dude i was going to tag you in there. You're too fast !