@TheSqeakyMouse 1. Narrowing patterns with flat bottoms usually break downward, not upward.
2. Chart patterns that consolidate that deep into the convergence typically move counter-trend.
@steve2bacon Puts were at ATH in late 2021. Also, there’s a large bump in puts from 2006-2008 vs the years before and after. Can see clearly on the chart you just reposted.
@StarPunkOG@RKidUK@TheLastDegree In short term situations these relationships can distort. Look here, from June 2020 to July 2022 real rates fell from 1.5% to -6% and gold did nothing. Gold then appreciated as real rates moved up and eventually positive. The last 2 years in gold price were a delayed response.
@StarPunkOG@RKidUK@TheLastDegree I can’t tell if this is trolling. “Real rate” is just (inflation - yields). Yields are driven in most part by inflation expectations, so really it’s (inflation-inflation expectations). Real rates will likely not go negative.
@MartinH1359670@TheLastDegree Agreed. So now you have to bet that inflation expectations (which sets rates) does not outpace inflation. In 2022 that’s easy because nobody alive then ever experienced high inflation from bad policy. In 2026 it’s a fresh wound. Market expectations are driven by market experience
@RKidUK@TheLastDegree Listen guy, I hold a lot of gold. I have everything to lose here, but I will not be delusional. Rising inflation expectations means rising yields. This is bearish gold since the USD/gold de-peg in 1972, which for all intents is the beginning of a free gold market in the US.
@MrNQDC If you have that much income just put the rest of your money into a regular brokerage account and stop acting like an unlock at 60 years old is a hack. 1 in the hand vs 1.2 in the bush.
@VWAPmag First pic is price of Shanghai silver, the second pic is the premium to American silver futures. Premium slightly high but not vs recent history.
@idearikas Dude it’s not fud, Fred is a crook and it’s the worst management on earth. The comments are probably coming from thousands of real people who lost real money investing in this dump of a company at any point over the last 5 years.