@Shaughnessy119 The case for a two-way inference marketplace is getting stronger by the day
https://t.co/Jp1vfEvlkQ
solana:EN2nnxrg8uUi6x2sJkzNPd2eT6rB9rdSoQNNaENA4RZA
My colleague @Shaughnessy119 and I have been banging the drum lately on token costs
Now Citadel, Citrini and many others are saying this out loud
The article below goes into more detail on the situation, including how enterprises will reframe AI adoption efforts to cost-per-outcome
Tommy’s post that went viral is more succinct and plays out a scenario on how this could blow up - that’s the situation we want to avoid
https://t.co/nmODLHTQXa
If you’re building products or services that help enterprises control AI costs or get better outcomes per dollar of AI spend, we want to speak with you
Not only are @AskVenice team members following the solana:EN2nnxrg8uUi6x2sJkzNPd2eT6rB9rdSoQNNaENA4RZA founder.
they’re now actually following @squire_bot 👀
Wonder what is coming for inference on @solana
The $SQUIRE chart (on the right) looks quite similar to the pumpcade chart (on the left) before it rallied from under $2M to $50M.
Another similarity is that pumpcade completed an ACE round and raised funds, which triggered this massive rally even while the broader market was collapsing.
During the MCG interview, @0xgilbert also stated that:
> He was looking to raise funds.
> He wanted to bring value back to the coin and seems open to the idea of an ACE round as well.
Both are pumpfun coins.
By the way, public service announcement: if you're one of the numerous people posting about Anthropic's dystopian ways and you're thinking about getting Claude to help you write that post... don't!
Another one of their terms is that you may not use Claude to do anything that "exposes [Anthropic to] reputational harms" 👇
And, if you do, under the - extremely unusual - clause 13 of their terms (https://t.co/z43rJNkvZu), you have PRE-AGREED, by using Anthropic (and accepted their terms), that the harm you've done is irreparable, that you won't oppose Anthropic injunction, and they don't need to prove actual damage.
They can simply go to a judge in a friendly jurisdiction (and of course, their terms precise that any dispute "will be resolved exclusively in the state or federal courts located in San Francisco, California") and:
a) file an injunction that shuts you down
b) make you pay for everything since under section 11 of their terms you agree to indemnify Anthropic for "any and all liabilities, claims, damages, expenses (including reasonable attorneys' fees and costs), and other losses arising out of or related to your breach or alleged breach of these Terms."
In other words, if you use Claude to help you talk shit about Anthropic publicly, their terms say you pay their lawyers to go after you and you've already pre-agreed you've lost the case.
Oh, and cherry on the cake: in the odd case the judge were like "are you crazy, this is insanely abusive, you Anthropic are the ones at fault here," according to their terms Anthropic's maximum liability is... $100.
I got a lot of flack when I said this before, but I continue to think that model providers will end up being a lot like airlines: Critical for the global economy but highly commoditized, with huge capex requirements and low (and often negative) margins.
About 8 months ago, I warned that “Anthropic is running a sophisticated regulatory capture strategy based on fear-mongering.” This take was controversial at the time; now look how many people are saying it.
We're about to run back blockspace fees.
1. Early leaders (Ethereum, Anthropic) drive BIG fees
2. Price elasticity breaks (gas, LLM budgets)
3. Cheaper 80/20 (blockspace, models) pop up
4. Revenue collapses, Jevon's paradox cited
5. Jevon's paradox wins LT, but there's a gap
Citadel Securities just put institutional weight behind what the AI bulls won't say out loud.
In a new macro note titled "Tokenomics," Citadel makes the argument plainly: even the most powerful technology on earth still has to pass through the boring discipline of cost curves, capacity limits, and marginal returns.
The evidence is piling up:
– Amazon removed its token usage leaderboard
– Microsoft cancelled Claude Code subscriptions
– Multiple companies reporting unexpectedly massive token bills
Their conclusion is the part that matters.
Adoption is no longer about what AI can do in principle. It's becoming about the price and scarcity of the inputs needed to run it at scale. Compute. Power. Cooling. Memory bandwidth. Inference budgets. All real, all binding constraints.
And here's the kicker from the chart.
The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index, a benchmark for how much the market is actually spending on AI tokens, has started rolling over. Citadel reads it as a shift toward cheaper models. Companies substituting away from expensive frontier AI toward "good enough" alternatives.
That's economics 101 doing what it always does. When the price of something rises, people use less of it, or find a cheaper version.
Citadel sees a bifurcation forming. Frontier AI concentrated among a few firms with the balance sheets to absorb the cost. Everyone else quietly downgrading to simpler, cheaper models.
This is the part of every technology revolution the early narrative ignores.
The technology being real was never the question.
The question was always whether the economics could carry the valuations.
When one of the most sophisticated trading firms on earth starts writing about AI in the language of cost curves and rationing instead of limitless demand, the conversation has quietly changed.
The hype was about what AI could do.
The reckoning is about what it costs.
$squire | @squire_bot
this is the path i see.
5th wave target 20-30m.
from there, we likely see an A-B-C corrective move, consolidate / base out and restart an impulsive 5 wave structure.
let's play it out, level by level.
Two Solana-native networks, one marketplace.
UsePod now supports @JatevoId as a BYOK provider. Relay your backed capacity, resell inference, and get paid in USDC.
https://t.co/VnT0l94pWP
Piers has researched and wrote one of the most compelling reports on Space I've ever read 🚀🛰️
His report comprehensively walks through the decreasing cost to send a KG of material into space and at each level what this unlocks for the space economy
Piers also got me hooked on Three Body Problem so this is ironically up the space alley
- $1,500/kg is where we are now. This era gave us megaconstellations and earth observation. Starlink runs 75% of all maneuverable satellites in orbit and its network capacity already equals roughly 20% of the planet's real time internet traffic.
- $500/kg, expected 2027 to 2030, is when the physical economy of space starts. Orbital data centers, commercial space stations, in space servicing. At $1,500/kg the orbital business is information.
- $200/kg, 2030 to 2033, is when space starts producing. In space manufacturing crosses breakeven for drugs and materials Earth physically cannot make. The TAM for space manufactured goods sold back to Earth crosses $10B annually for the first time.
- $50/kg, 2033 to 2040, unlocks the lunar economy. The wild stat here: by 2035 propellant produced on the lunar surface could be cheaper than shipping it from Earth. That would be the first time in history any commodity made more sense to produce off world.
- $10/kg, 2040s, is the Mars supply chain, lunar mass drivers, and 45 minute London to Sydney flights. Speculative on timing but the direction feels inevitable.
Lock in @elonmusk we're going to Mars