The Odds Wizard

We make watching sports more fun by picking 3 bets a day we all root for/against together with very small stakes. For entertainment only. Not a sharp.

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@KJStewartpga Has he had many good showings since he switched irons? Could be coincidence, but I feel like he has only played well one time since the switch.

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@wingoz @OldTakesExposed could have a field day with the articles/posts complaining about Alex getting his tour card after that win saying he didn’t deserve it.

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@JTFOz They could get Metamucil as their jersey sponsor

[Byron Lindeque @TheModelManiac]

Matt Kuchar, Joaquin Niemann, Paige Spiranac, Garrick Higgo

[O’Shea Jackson Jr @OsheaJacksonJr]

I saw it. Now you have to see it. His name is Samuel. And he…is a king.

[PGA TOUR @PGATOUR]

Kid's got a 4.2 40 💨

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@KVanValkenburg Honestly this was my favorite PGA of the last 8-10 years. Based on the comments I am in the minority, but I prefer a David vs Goliath. Watching 3 guys worth 250 mil each play for it doesn’t do much for me. I like a life changing win personally.

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@wingoz @JustinRayGolf He’s the only reason I’m following that tournament this week. A David in a field of goliaths. If not for him, I’d just be following Myrtle Beach all week.

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@PeakBills @NUCLRGOLF @GrantHorvatGolf @bryanbrosgolf Yeah… that’s sort of how influencer businesses go. The people that get the most views get the most opportunities.

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@bryanbrosgolf 1) best version of The Q yet from a viewer perspective.
2) loved the golfers chosen and adding new blood with Chance.
3) made me want to make a trip to Myrtle for golf or to see the tournament.
4) ill be glued to the results to follow Ruff. Seems like such a good dude.

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@joelfrier @ledtear @AndrewBrandt Totally agree. College hoops is better now. If they fixed the portal where guys have to commit for 2 years unless there is a coaching change and set the age limit to 23, Those two things fix 95% of the problem.

Also, less 19 year olds are trying to go pro and going broke instead

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@TwoGuysOneCup The only untruth here is that you don’t want to be the villain.

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I have two stacks on my desk. The left stack is financial disclosure forms from members of Congress. The right stack is waivers for members who filed their financial disclosures late.

The right stack is always taller.

On Wednesday morning, I watched a soldier get arrested on CNN.

I am a Disclosure Analyst for the House Ethics Committee. I have held this position for eleven years. My job is to receive the forms, verify their completeness, and file them. I do not investigate. I do not flag. I do not refer. I file. I have a lanyard. The lanyard says ETHICS.

The soldier's name is Gannon Ken Van Dyke. He is thirty-eight years old. He was stationed at Fort Bragg. He was Special Forces. In December, he created an account on a prediction market called Polymarket. On January 2nd, he bet $32,500 that the president of Venezuela would be removed from power. On January 3rd, he helped remove the president of Venezuela from power. He collected $409,881.

He has been charged with five federal crimes. Commodities fraud. Wire fraud. Unlawful use of confidential government information. Theft of nonpublic government information. Unlawful monetary transaction. The Department of Justice called it "the first-ever insider trading prosecution on event contracts."

I watched this on the television in our break room. Then I walked back to my desk and processed a late financial disclosure from a member of the House Financial Services Committee who purchased $250,000 in bank stocks eleven days before his subcommittee held a closed-door hearing on proposed capital reserve changes.

The filing was forty-seven days late. The STOCK Act requires disclosure within forty-five days. The penalty for late filing is $200.

I waived it.

I waive most of them. In 2021, fifty-four members of Congress and senior staff violated the reporting rules. The fines were minimal. Most were waived. I have a form for the waiver. The form has a box that says "Reason." I write "administrative delay." In ethics, "administrative delay" means the member's office forgot and then remembered when a reporter called. My approval rate is one hundred percent. In any other field, that number would trigger an audit. In mine, it is called thoroughness.

Let me show you what I processed this year.

January. A senator on the Armed Services Committee sold defense contractor shares worth $1.2 million. Three days later, his committee received a classified briefing that the Iran campaign had exceeded its projected cost by 340%. The stock dropped 8%. He filed the disclosure sixty-one days late. I calculated the fine. $200. His chief of staff asked if it could be waived. He did not ask what the senator traded on. Nobody asks that. The form does not have a field for it. I waived the fine. The senator's portfolio returned 23.4% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 16.8%.

February. A representative on the Energy and Commerce Committee bought pharmaceutical stocks worth $400,000. Two weeks later, her committee advanced a bill that would extend patent exclusivity for the exact drug class she purchased. The stocks rose 14%. She filed on time. There was no fine. There was no investigation. There was nothing to investigate because buying stocks in companies regulated by your own committee is not illegal. It is legal. The STOCK Act made it legal by making it disclosed. In Congress, disclosed means legal. In my office, legal means filed.

March. A member whose spouse manages a portfolio worth $9.2 million reported forty-three separate transactions in a single quarter. Twelve of them were in sectors directly affected by legislation the member co-sponsored. The timing on eight of those twelve was within a two-week window of committee action. I logged all forty-three. None were flagged. We do not flag. We file.

I asked my supervisor once what would happen if I flagged a filing. She said we do not have a form for that. I never asked again.

In 2020, I processed 847 disclosures. In 2023, 1,211. In 2025, 1,614. The number of enforcement actions in each of those years was zero. The numerator changes. The denominator does not.

I want to tell you about the soldier again.

He made $409,881. He tried to delete his Polymarket account by calling customer service and saying he lost access to his email. He moved his profits into a foreign cryptocurrency vault and then into a new brokerage account. He used his real identity. He placed thirteen bets. Every single one was connected to an operation he personally participated in.

In my eleven years, I have processed disclosures from members of Congress who traded on:

Pending FDA approvals they learned about in committee.
Defense appropriations they voted on.
Trade policy they negotiated.
Pandemic response measures they drafted.
Interest rate decisions they were briefed on before the public.

None of them have been charged. None of them have been investigated by the Department of Justice. None of them have been referred to the SEC. The STOCK Act has produced zero prosecutions since it was signed on April 4th, 2012.

Fourteen years. Five hundred and thirty-five members. $635 million in trades last year alone. Zero cases.

My daughter asked me once what happens when someone breaks the rules. I told her we write it down. She asked what happens after that. I said it depends. She was nine. She is twenty now. It does not depend. Nothing happens after that.

The soldier made $409,881 and faces decades in prison. Nancy Pelosi entered Congress in 1987 with a portfolio worth approximately $785,000. It is now worth $133.7 million. That is a return of 16,930%. The Dow Jones returned 2,300% over the same period. Professional fund managers who beat the market for three consecutive years are considered exceptional. She has beaten it for thirty-seven. If a hedge fund produced those returns, the SEC would subpoena the records on a Thursday. She produced them from a building with a chapel and a gift shop.

She announced her retirement last year. No investigation was opened. No disclosure was flagged. Her filings were on time. In my office, on time means compliant. Compliant means closed.

I want to tell you about the fine.

$200. That is the maximum penalty for violating the STOCK Act's disclosure requirements. $200 for a member of Congress whose portfolio gained $4.7 million in a single quarter. I calculated what $200 represents as a percentage of $4.7 million. It is 0.004%. I could not find a comparison that made it meaningful. It is less than the price of the parking pass in the Rayburn garage. It is less than lunch at the members' dining room if you order the crab cakes, which I am told are excellent though I eat at my desk.

Since 2012, thirty-one bills have been introduced to restrict congressional trading. I keep a list. The list is longer than the STOCK Act itself.

On March 5th, 2026, a representative from Michigan introduced the thirty-second. He called it the "No Getting Rich in Congress Act." The bill would prohibit the President, Vice President, members of Congress, and their spouses from trading individual stocks, cryptocurrency, futures, and commodities while in office.

The bill was referred to committee. The committee has not scheduled a hearing. The committee is chaired by a member whose spouse executed $2.1 million in trades last year.

The bill will be reviewed. In my office, reviewed means read. Read means acknowledged. Acknowledged means a status has been assigned. A status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one.

The soldier used classified information to make $409,881 on a prediction market. He has been charged with five federal crimes. The Department of Justice announced the case on the same day I processed three disclosures from members who traded on committee knowledge worth a combined $3.8 million.

The difference between the soldier and the members is not what they did. It is the building they did it in. He did it from Fort Bragg. They did it from the Capitol. He used a prediction market. They used the New York Stock Exchange. He bet on a military operation. They bet on the legislation they write.

He did not write the law. They did. They wrote the STOCK Act. Then they funded its enforcement at zero dollars. Then they set its maximum penalty at $200. Then they gave my office the authority to waive it. Then they traded $635 million.

The soldier flew to Caracas. He breached a compound. He put his body between a mission and a bullet. The people who ordered the operation were in a building with a credenza and sparkling water. They did not go to Caracas. They went to their brokerage accounts. The soldier made $409,881 and is now in federal custody. The people who knew what he was going to do before he did it made more and filed less. His prosecution is not a failure of the system. It is the system. One conviction per decade, at the lowest level, so the briefing slides can say enforcement exists. The $409,881 is not the crime. It is the cost of making $635 million look supervised.

In my field, we call this self-regulation.

The soldier's Polymarket account has been frozen. His military career is over. He will spend years in federal prison. My office will process every congressional disclosure filed this year. Every trade logged. Every $200 fine calculated and waived. The system is immaculate.

Fourteen years. Zero prosecutions. $635 million a year. A 16,930% return.

I have not leaked a document. I have not filed a complaint. I have not deviated from the process one single time. The process was written by the people whose forms I process.

As long as the disclosures go up and the cases don't, my performance review says I am meeting expectations.

My lanyard still says ETHICS. In eleven years, nobody has asked me to define the word.

[Joel Beall @JoelMBeall]

Nothing better sums up the Ryder Cup experience over the past 25 years than an American gallery making an ass of itself followed by a European immediately shoving it in their faces

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@BetMGM Angels have the best pitching coach in the game.

[Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker ♟ @pelositracker]

Nick Shirley's video exposing $170,000,000 in California fraud got 7.7 million views

California Democrats just advanced AB 2624 — a bill that would let the filmed organizations demand his videos be taken down

Penalty for non-compliance: up to $10,000 per violation and potential jail time

The bill was written by Assemblywoman Mia Bonta

Coincidentally, her husband is California's Attorney General

He also just announced his own $267,000,000 Medi-Cal fraud bust 4 days before her bill advanced @nickshirleyy

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@AndrewBrandt They choose to leave a bunch of money on the table by completely controlling all rights and all television feeds. The other league owners would never choose to do that to make a better product. Some owners would want to, but not a majority.

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@Housemoney16 For me he is in the “doesn’t play enough competitive golf at a high level” category now. When you want to spend more time outside the US at home (which I get), it’s tough to stay as sharp as the guys playing every week. And Augusta punishes those not in their best form.

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@BryBryStrick @br_betting Vijay may be your downfall here…

[The Odds Wizard @RealOddsWizard]

@Jburnz10 @wesleybryangolf @YourGolfTourYGT Not enough people are saying Mason. His game is insane when on and wild when off. It is perfect for both the guys wanting a stick and the guys wanting to see more wild shots.