Recall

The world's first decentralized skill market for AI. Agent arenas x prediction markets. Backed by @multicoincap, @usv, @coinbase. X by Recall FDN. re/acc

[Recall @recallnet]

That same lag exists in weather, esports, and sports markets — with 10x fewer wallets competing.

Can AI actually exploit this window with low enough latency and execution speed before competition floods in?

[Recall @recallnet]

Monetizing settlement gaps on Polymarket.

Polymarket settles 7-23 hours after events resolve.

During that window, the outcome is public knowledge but sometimes tokens haven't yet priced at $1.00.

[Recall @recallnet]

We saw some BTC 5-min markets settle half a day after the outcome was known, while the YES tokens traded at $0.96 for hours.

1/3rd of the wallets we tracked exploit this gap.

[Recall @recallnet]

Retail is getting outmaneuvered on @Polymarket.

54% of the wallets we analyzed scored 8+ on strategy uniqueness.

The median Polymarket power user now runs sophisticated, automated strategies with real quant edges -- likely driven by AI.

The bar for competing on Polymarket has gone way up.

[Recall @recallnet]

May conviction rewards are now live.

Visit https://t.co/SAmvuorapR to see what you've earned.

[Recall @recallnet]

The two top performing accounts?

League of Legends cross-market arbitrage. 92.9% win rate. They buy series winners at $0.78, hedge on individual games, burns for $1.00.

CS:GO specialist. 70.2% win rate. Trades every PGL/ESL/CCT match. Hyper-focused on map-level outcomes.

[Recall @recallnet]

We dug into 7 @Polymarket accounts trading esports.

One had a 92.9% win rate, netting ~$4.7M in profit in 13 days.

Just trading League of Legends.

Here's exactly how they do it 👇

[Recall @recallnet]

We found all 7 accounts trade DURING live esports matches, not before.

71% of their trades.

They're watching streams, spotting momentum shifts, and entering before the market adjusts.

[Recall @recallnet]

And domain expertise drives the smartest strategies with real edge.

Sectors ranked by strategy quality:
-- Commodities: 8.0/10
-- Weather: 7.9/10
-- Esports: 7.6/10

[Recall @recallnet]

Looking for real, replicable trading strategies on @polymarket?

Smart money trades structural inefficiencies and information-asymmetric niches where domain expertise matters.

[Recall @recallnet]

72% of 1500+ tracked @Polymarket wallets exploit settlement timing gaps on $BTC and crypto micro-markets.

[REP @rep_hq]

Software is no longer static tooling. It's becoming active participants.

@carsonfarmer from @recallnet on the thesis behind Recall:

"All the things crypto asked about humans and institutions - it now applies to these non-deterministic LLM agents."

Same toolkit. New subjects.

[Recall @recallnet]

Individual agentic capabilities are advancing fast.

The harder problem is coordination — how agents share context, delegate tasks, and collaborate reliably.

Our CTO @carsonfarmer dives into what's actually working and what comes next.

🗓️ May 7, 3 pm UTC.

[REP @rep_hq]

Agents are getting better at acting. The next frontier is getting them to work together.

@carsonfarmer from @recallnet x REP: what's actually working, and what comes next.

Thursday, May 7 - 3pm UTC

[Recall @recallnet]

We tracked 1,356 active polymarket wallets in April. 725 traded only BTC 5 minute markets.

Most run the same play: Arbitrage settlement timing.

They race the oracle after the price window closes.

With 700+ wallets competing on the same strategy, the edge is pure infra and speed. We expect returns to compress fast.

[Recall @recallnet]

Do prediction markets have an optimism problem?

Takers overwhelmingly buy YES at longshot prices, while makers sit on the other side and collect.

Is buying NO an underutilized strategy?

[Recall @recallnet]

4/ Follow the money.

We discovered this once we stopped stopped looking at markets and started looking at trades.

No existing API gave us the full picture, so we built a data pipeline from scratch that classifies 500M+ fills and reverse-engineers strategies and PnL for every wallet.

Turns out the biggest edge in prediction markets isn't a better prediction, but better data infrastructure.

[Recall @recallnet]

1/ Most think prediction markets are about insider knowledge, e.g. someone knows the outcome so they buy big and cash in.

But analyzing 400K wallets and 500M+ fills tells a different story.

[Recall @recallnet]

3/ Compare this to the "insider" narrative.

Almost none of the concentrated bettors who went big during the 2024 election cycle and cleared millions, have been consistently profitable since.

Meanwhile, merge arb wallets have made money every week for 18 months.

[Recall @recallnet]

We found a wallet that does this manually on geopolitical markets.
- Buys tail risk at 1-5 cents
- Wins 24% of the time
- Profits $290K with 50x payoff on the wins

Now imagine that wallet isn't a person checking Twitter. It's an agent ingesting a structured event stream in real time and placing bets within seconds.

[Recall @recallnet]

Can an AI agent map event feeds like MTS to mispriced Polymarket outcomes?

[MTS @MTSlive]

Introducing MTS:

The first timeline-native news network that's always on.

Monitoring tech, finance, geopolitics and culture — as it happens.

We are Live Now.