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🚨 UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje RECAP 🚨

Ilia Topuria ML (-550) ❌ LOSE
Alex Pereira ML (-105) ❌ LOSE
Sean O'Malley ML (-380) ✅ WIN
Josh Hokkit ML (-440) ✅ WIN
Mauricio Ruffy ML (-600) ✅ WIN
Kyle Daukaus ML (+250) ❌ LOSE
Diego Lopes ML (-148) ✅ WIN

Record: 4-3

Favorites let us down early with Topuria and Pereira both falling short. Lopes and the mid-tier favorites helped us claw back some, but not enough tonight. USA BABY!!!

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How did you guys do? Drop your records 👇
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[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje

MY PREDICTION
-Ilia Topuria ML (-550)

-Ilia Topuria (17-0) is the rightful favorite and should dominate Justin Gaethje. The undefeated champ boasts elite metrics: 93% takedown defense (one of the best in the UFC), 4.81 SLpM with 64% striking defense, and only 3.83 strikes absorbed per minute. He’s finished legends like Volkanovski, Holloway, and Oliveira with power and precision. Gaethje (27-5) brings volume (6.48 SLpM) and pressure, but he absorbs a brutal 7.05 strikes per minute with just 51% striking defense and minimal wrestling output (0.33 TD/15 min). Topuria’s superior defense, counter-striking, and championship pedigree should allow him to neutralize Gaethje’s aggression and secure a stoppage, likely by KO in the middle rounds. Youth, skill, and stats give “El Matador” the clear edge.

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UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane

MY PREDICTION
-Alex Pereira ML (-105)

-Alex Pereira (13-3) is the dangerous pick and should knock out Ciryl Gane. “Poatan” is a finishing machine with elite power, boasting 5.16 SLpM, 62% striking accuracy, and a devastating KO rate (11 of 13 wins by stoppage). He absorbs a manageable 3.50 SApM with 53% striking defense and 79% takedown defense. Gane (13-2) is slick with 5.29 SLpM and excellent 2.33 SApM absorbed plus 60% striking defense, but he struggles with 47% takedown defense and has been vulnerable to pressure and power at heavyweight. Pereira’s one-shot KO ability, recent finishing momentum (including a quick stoppage of Ankalaev), and championship experience should overwhelm Gane’s movement and lead to a highlight-reel knockout. Size difference exists, but power and killer instinct give Poatan the clear edge.

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UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

Sean O'Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi

MY PREDICTION
-Sean O'Malley ML (-380)

-Sean O’Malley (19-3, 1 NC) is the heavy favorite and should handle Aiemann Zahabi with his elite striking. “Suga” lands at a high 6.05 SLpM with 60% accuracy, absorbs a low 3.40 SApM, and holds 60% striking defense plus solid 60% takedown defense. His length (5'11", 72" reach), speed, and precision make him extremely difficult to hit cleanly, as shown in his recent decision win over Song Yadong. Zahabi (14-2) is on a solid run but lands just 4.54 SLpM at 47% accuracy, absorbs 4.08 SApM, and while he has good 69% striking defense and 83% takedown defense, he lacks the volume and power to consistently pressure O’Malley. The 7-year age gap and reach advantage should allow O’Malley to pick Zahabi apart at range and secure a clear decision or late finish.

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UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit

MY PREDICTION
-Josh Hokit ML (-440)

-Josh Hokit has a strong case to beat Derrick Lewis. The undefeated 9-0 prospect (5 KOs, 3 subs) brings superior athleticism, wrestling pedigree, and well-rounded skills from Jackson-Wink MMA. Fresh off a gritty decision win over Curtis Blaydes, Hokit can stuff takedowns, mix in heavy striking volume (9+ SLpM), and control the fight on the mat or against the fence. Lewis, while still dangerous with one-punch KO power, has slowed down significantly and often fades or quits under sustained pressure. Hokit’s youth, pace, and grappling edge should allow him to wear down “The Black Beast��� for a mid-to-late finish or dominant decision.

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler

MY PREDICTION
-Mauricio Ruffy ML (-600)

-Mauricio Ruffy has a very strong case to beat Michael Chandler. The 29-year-old Brazilian striker (13-2, 12 KOs) is on a tear with elite kickboxing, length (75" reach), and sharp counter-punching that should keep the explosive but smaller Chandler at bay. Fresh off a highlight-reel KO of Rafael Fiziev, Ruffy’s distance management, leg kicks, and power should exploit Chandler’s age (40), recent 1-4 skid, and slowing athleticism. While Chandler can still generate early chaos with wrestling and one-shot power, Ruffy’s youth, TDD (85%), and finishing instincts make him the favorite to weather the storm and secure a mid-round KO/TKO.

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UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus

MY PREDICTION
-Kyle Daukaus ML (+250)

-Kyle Daukaus has a real case to upset Bo Nickal. The 33-year-old veteran (17-4, 1 NC) is a submission specialist with elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu, dangerous D’Arce chokes, and solid southpaw striking (3.3 SLpM). Coming off back-to-back first-round finishes, Daukaus brings experience, length (76" reach), and proven grappling that can neutralize Nickal’s wrestling if he stuffs early shots. Nickal, despite his athleticism and power, has shown vulnerabilities — most notably getting finished by Reinier de Ridder — and can be hittable or gassed when forced into prolonged exchanges. Daukaus’s pressure, TDD, and finishing instincts (12 subs) give him a legitimate path to a submission victory or gritty decision if he survives the early storm.

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje

Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia

MY PREDICTION
-Diego Lopes ML (-148)

-Diego Lopes has a very strong case to beat Steve Garcia. The #2-ranked Brazilian (27-8, 11 KOs, 12 subs) is a lethal finisher with explosive power, slick submissions, and proven durability from title shots against Alexander Volkanovski. Fresh off a highlight KO of Jean Silva, Lopes’ aggressive pressure, grappling threats, and ability to mix striking with takedowns should overwhelm Garcia’s solid but one-dimensional kickboxing. Garcia (19-5) boasts elite volume (5.39 SLpM) and TDD, but he’s been less tested against top-tier finishers and can be vulnerable to Lopes’ early-round chaos and finishing instincts. Expect Lopes to find a finish in the first or second round.

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Recap 🔥

Tough night overall on the books, but we hit 4 winners to keep grinding.

Record: 4-7
✅ Wins:
Iwo Baraniewski ML
Alessandro Costa ML
Marcus McGhee ML
Ketlen Souza ML

❌ Losses:
Belal Muhammad ML
Fares Ziam ML
Santiago Luna ML
Bruno Silva ML
Priscila Cachoeira +3.5
Jordan Leavitt +3.5
Yuneisy Duben ML

Appreciate everyone who rode with the card. These are the swings; we’ll bounce back stronger next time.
Always bet responsibly. Not financial advice.
#UFC #UFCPicks #MMA #FightNight #REDHEADMMA

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim

MY PREDICTION
-Belal Muhammad ML (-112)

-Belal Muhammad should grind out a victory over the dangerous but less experienced Gabriel Bonfim. As a battle-tested former champion, Belal’s elite wrestling, relentless forward pressure, awkward style, and championship fight IQ allow him to control the octagon, chain takedowns, and neutralize Bonfim’s explosiveness and grappling threats. His proven five-round cardio and durability wear down younger finishers in the later rounds, where his high-volume pace and top control pull ahead on the scorecards for a hard-fought unanimous decision win.

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

MY PREDICTION
-Edmen Shahbazyan Round 1 Only Moneyline (Any Other Result No Action) (+140)

-Edmen Shahbazyan offers strong value on the Round 1 Only Moneyline (+140, any other result no action) against Brendan Allen. The explosive knockout artist has 13 first-round finishes in his career and possesses legitimate one-punch power with fast hands that can catch grapplers before they establish wrestling. Allen, while durable and skilled, can be hittable early and has been vulnerable to powerful strikers who come out aggressive. Shahbazyan’s athleticism and early takedown defense make it very possible he lands something heavy in the opening minutes before Allen can drag him into deep grappling waters. At plus money, this is a high-upside spot for Edmen’s proven Round 1 violence.

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan

MY PREDICTION
-Fares Ziam ML (-310)

-Fares Ziam should cruise to win over the dangerous but outmatched Tom Nolan. The ranked veteran brings superior experience, fight IQ, well-rounded skills, and elite striking defense that should neutralize Nolan’s power and athleticism while exploiting his defensive holes on the feet. Ziam’s six-fight win streak and proven ability to handle momentum fighters make this a spot where he controls the distance, mixes in takedowns if needed, and pulls away late for a clear decision. Throw this in your parlay as a strong favorite anchor, solid value combined with other picks for boosted payouts.

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna

MY PREDICTION
-Santiago Luna ML (+110)

-Santiago Luna should pull off the upset victory over Bryce Mitchell. The young, undefeated Mexican prospect brings superior striking, speed, reach advantage, and well-rounded skills that allow him to stuff takedowns, keep the fight on the feet, and outstrike the grappler with sharp boxing combinations. Luna’s confidence, recent training with top talent, and ability to impose his will in exchanges exploit Mitchell’s vulnerabilities against athletic strikers who neutralize his wrestling. Expect Luna to control the distance early and pull away late for a clear decision win. Please prove me wrong Bryce.

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa

MY PREDICTION
-Iwo Baraniewski ML (-395)

-Iwo Baraniewski should secure a dominant win over Junior Tafa. The undefeated Polish prospect (8-0, 100% finish rate) brings explosive power, six first-round knockouts, and sharp striking that should overwhelm Tafa’s chin and defensive vulnerabilities early. Baraniewski’s speed, precision, and finishing ability, shown in back-to-back UFC first-round KOs, allow him to dictate the stand-up exchanges and capitalize on Tafa’s slower output and recent inconsistencies. Expect “Rudy” to land something heavy and get the finish.

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa

MY PREDICTION
-Alessandro Costa ML (-425)

-Alessandro Costa should dominate and finish Matt Schnell in this flyweight matchup. The Brazilian power puncher brings explosive knockout power, solid BJJ, and finishing ability (multiple first-round KOs and body-shot TKO wins) that should overwhelm the aging, chinny veteran Schnell, who’s struggled with durability and is just 1-4 in his last five. Costa’s striking, leg kicks, and ground threat exploit Schnell’s defensive holes, likely leading to an early stoppage. Expect “Nono” to get the TKO or submission victory.

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis

MY PREDICTION
-Marcus McGhee ML (-395)

-Marcus McGhee should dominate and pick up a clear win over last-minute replacement John Yannis. “The Maniac” is a powerful, high-volume striker with eight career knockouts, elite hand speed, and strong fight IQ from the MMA Lab that lets him control distance, land heavy combinations, and capitalize on defensive lapses. Yannis, stepping in on short notice with limited UFC experience, will struggle against McGhee’s pressure and precision, likely leading to McGhee pulling away late or securing a stoppage with his finishing ability. Expect a confident decision or TKO victory for the ranked bantamweight.

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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Bruno Silva vs. Edgar Cháirez

MY PREDICTION
-Bruno Silva ML (-118)

-Bruno Silva should rebound with a hard-fought win over Edgar Cháirez in this flyweight scrap. The veteran “Bulldog” brings dangerous finishing power in both striking and grappling, elite experience against ranked competition, and strong Brazilian jiu-jitsu that can neutralize Cháirez’s submission game while threatening with knees, body shots, and top control. Silva’s durability, fight IQ, and ability to mix attacks should allow him to weather early pressure from the younger Mexican prospect and pull ahead in the later rounds for a decision or late finish. Expect the ranked veteran to get back in the win column.

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Chelsea Chandler vs. Priscila Cachoeira

MY PREDICTION
-Priscila Cachoeira +3.5 (-175)

-Priscila Cachoeira offers strong value on +3.5 scorecards against Chelsea Chandler. “Zombie Girl” is a veteran with wild striking power, decent grappling, and the ability to make fights messy and competitive, even against grapplers. Chandler has looked vulnerable in recent outings and struggles with consistency on the feet, giving Cachoeira opportunities to land heavy shots, stuff takedowns, or win rounds with aggression and volume. This matchup is expected to go the distance in a back-and-forth scrap where judges often split rounds closely, making a wide 30-27 or finsih loss unlikely for the hard-nosed Brazilian. Expect a competitive decision that keeps this prop in play.

[REDHEAD MMA @REDHEADMMA]

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Jordan Leavitt vs. Joanderson Brito

MY PREDICTION
-Jordan Leavitt +3.5 (-110)

-Jordan Leavitt offers solid value on +3.5 scorecards against Joanderson Brito. “The Monkey King” is an extremely durable, gritty veteran with elite scrambling ability, crafty submissions, and the willingness to make fights ugly and chaotic. Brito is a powerful, explosive striker who can dominate on the feet, but Leavitt’s takedown defense, relentless grappling pressure, and experience in close, messy fights should allow him to steal rounds on the ground or with activity, even if he loses some striking exchanges. This fight is likely to go the distance in a back-and-forth battle where judges often see competitive rounds, making a lopsided 30-27 or finish for Brito unlikely. Leavitt’s toughness keeps this prop live.

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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Jeisla Chaves vs. Yuneisy Duben

MY PREDICTION
-Yuneisy Duben ML (+215)

-Yuneisy Duben should score a big upset victory over Jeisla Chaves. The hard-hitting Venezuelan power puncher (6-1) brings legitimate one-punch knockout power, high-volume striking, and aggressive forward pressure that can overwhelm Chaves if she gets caught in the pocket. Duben’s finishing rate and heavy hands exploit any defensive lapses from the undefeated Brazilian, who, while sharp at range, may struggle with Duben’s explosiveness and raw power in a stand-up war. Expect “Nono” to land something heavy early and secure the TKO finish.