Friends, Finishing the 3rd Ed. of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails, which should be out next week.
Adding ~100 pages: the Lindy derivations, a few other chapters, and, as requested by Constantino Tsallis, a derivation using Tsallis entropy.
Sorry, many typos
The argument that increasing tarrifs to cause adaptation by local industry assumes all parties consider the tariffs PERMANENT (even if we ignore the immediate impoverishment from decline in trade, the clumsiness in the abruptness).
The problem is everyone by a functioning brain (including people on the traditional "right") by now realize that Trump is a bit deranged, erratic, & these moves are likely to be transitory. He could be booted out; the 4 year mortality of an unfit 78 y.o. is >20%.
Heavy investments take > 5 years, more than the political cycle & initially require more imports. Huge capital commitments require a bit of certainty.
Some products s.a. wine may take >10 years, olive oil >12 years.