Benedito Reginaldo

[Stacy Muur @stacy_muur]

Institutional adoption, you say?
How about sovereign adoption?
Looks like @Karak_Network is planning to ride this wave.

This is a significant update, positioning Karak as the global base layer for anyone, including nation-states, to seamlessly create blockchains with shared security, optimized for internet markets.

More info ↓

[Aylo @alpha_pls]

Thoughts on where we are right now and a ramble on the future. Don't take any of it too literally. I'm wrong a lot, but this is what I'm thinking could be the path from here.

December and January should both be great months for BTC. Seasonality will deliver again, as the conditions are perfect.

Feel like we will see a bit more of an extension this month, but not as big as people are thinking, and then a larger move ~120k in Jan, possibly more, and a retracement post Trump's inauguration, or maybe a bit before as we are all front runooooors.

A true mega market wide alt szn should happen post that next big leg, as BTC dominance starts coming down even more. But obviously from now until that bigger move there will be many alts outperforming.

The more obvious utility and DeFi alts with genuine fundamentals are an easy bid here and then as we exhaust the non-vapourware stuff we will move down the risk curve. AI agents is still the new growing bubble, and will keep enlarging.

AI and memes should still be two of the most frothy categories that deliver explosively in Q1. Lots of DeFi is also going to do very well in that period as well - a lot of CT forgot about how crazy DeFi reflexivity is in the bull market.

Newer L1 environments always do well as they deliver new tokens to bid that feel exciting and provide easy gains because they just get comped to existing major L1 eco tokens, especially for those that missed out on performers in the bear, and new retail learning onchain crypto.

This alt szn will end at some point in Q1 and we will get a very nasty drop in alts that had gone parabolic, many will not make new highs for years after that, some ever again.

BTC will be dropping in this same period and probably goes back to 100k, or more likely sub 100k.

Many will depart here and book their profits for the cycle, and the sentiment will mostly be "it's over". This is inevitable due to early cycle participants having too much to lose, but also just a general embedded PTSD that will cause pretty large nukes everywhere. Late retail will panic sell because they will have FOMOd into alts without any research or plan. Sellers will simply overpower buyers.

You could call the next period a mini-bear or a long correction, it doesn't really matter, but lots of stuff will eventually find a bottom and trade sideways, and this will mostly be the PA for the whole Summer.

BTC will then make its move for a final leg up that tops in Q4. Calling this number is impossible this far in advance, but maybe the 170k-220k range feels about right to me currently.

We get another alt szn, but it will mostly be newer alts that didn't go parabolic in Q1 which will get their time in the sun and be the best performers. Usually stuff that launched later in the cycle or some random categories that suddenly take all the mindshare. Nobody predicted the metaverse run at the end of the last cycle, but usually it's extremely speculative type stuff.

Going forward though I do suspect BTC won't draw down quite as viciously due to the passive bid it now has eternally. This would only not be true if BTC does something absolutely insane like 300k+, but I don't think that is a high probability possibility.

This is just my musing right now using some data, indicators etc. A lot of this can change very, very quickly based on the PA over the next month and a half, e.g if we got too big of a move on BTC too quickly.

It won't obviously play out exactly like this even if it is directionally correct. Mostly think this is just a normal cycle, but naturally many aspects are different to previous cycles (e.g BTC making a new ATH in Q1 24), as all cycles are different.

The ending of the last two cycles were both drastically different. Blow off top in 17, and two rounded tops + a double top in 21. Selling the top is always almost impossible because market participants don't recognise it's a top at the time, that's just how it works.

And yeah NFA, because I'm quite redacted in many ways, and I'm just putting my thoughts on there for fun. I could literally be wrong about everything, and you always have to adapt as you get new information.

[🦈Shark89 @xShark89x]

🤯👀

#BeL2 is mind blowing!
$ELA will go parabolic soon.

Its programmed.

In Q4 we will have Arbiters going live to stake $ELA and earn #BTC

Think about that🚀

#Elastos #Layer2 #web3