Tommy

Sports bettor | Club Builder ⛳️ | Technically in the Atlanta Braves ownership group $BATRB

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@Value_Savant Before everyone goes down the rabbit hole: Boston cleaned house in late April and replaced much of its game-day/hitting staff. Their pitch decisions improved gradually afterward, and their current rates are basically in line with 2025. PitchCom interception is a huge leap.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@BenVerlander Basic sequencing math: HR–1B–1B–1B scores 1 run; 1B–1B–1B–HR scores 4. Arraez and Schwarber reach base at nearly the same rate, but Schwarber homers far more often. Put the singles profile first and the power profile behind it.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@BigKatSports @jaywillyff @UnderdogMLB Sequencing matters: HR–1B–1B–1B can produce 1 run; 1B–1B–1B–HR produces 4. Schwarber and Arraez have nearly identical OBPs (.362/.361), but Schwarber’s .283 ISO and 6.9% HR/PA dwarf Arraez’s .118 and 0.9%. Put traffic before power.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@BigKatSports @jaywillyff @UnderdogMLB You changed the controlled variable, ignored the methodology, invented the result, then called the actual evidence “dumb.” That’s confidence filling in for a lack of understanding.

Do yourself a favor and read this:
https://t.co/JaISPBRy5v

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@BigKatSports @jaywillyff @UnderdogMLB FanGraphs held wOBA equal across 1M simulations: the higher-OBP leadoff produced 4.83 R/G vs. 4.80, roughly 5 runs over 162 games, or half a win. Modest? Sure. But when the change costs nothing and scores more runs, calling the objectively better option “dumb” is simply wrong.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@jaywillyff @BigKatSports @UnderdogMLB One favorable matchup doesn’t prove the lineup is optimized. Schwarber succeeding at leadoff also doesn’t mean Arraez belongs 4th; the question is where Arraez’s contact and OBP create the most value over time.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@FloatsDispatch I hope Crawford becomes a great player. From June 1 through yesterday, his elite contact skills produced a .300 AVG, but the contact quality remains concerning: .288 xwOBA, .338 xSLG, 85.1 mph EV, 29.8% hard-hit rate and 0% barrels. He needs to hit the ball harder.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@BigKatSports @jaywillyff @UnderdogMLB FanGraphs/The Book: “Take the best three hitters at #1, #2, and #4,” with “power leaning towards #4 and OBP leaning toward #1.” That’s not waiting for a 3-run HR; it’s sequencing on-base skill before power; the opposite of batting Arraez behind Harper/Schwarber.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@zacvoynow @UnderdogMLB That .382 with RISP is why the idea is tempting, but it’s a small, context-dependent split, not a separate skill. Arraez’s .324 overall average is the repeatable value, and it’s better used creating traffic ahead of Harper and Schwarber than batting behind them.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@jaywillyff @UnderdogMLB Putting the ball in play can finish rallies, but Arraez usually does it one base at a time. Harper and Schwarber can clear the bases themselves, often leaving him to lead off an inning. His contact and OBP are more valuable setting up the power bats than protecting them.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@RealShelfy Stott has been more valuable overall because of his defense and baserunning at 2B. That does not make him a better hitter or prove he’ll be a better 3B. Bohm owns the stronger career offensive profile, while Stott has barely played third in MLB.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@JoshInnesShow Nobody expects every team to spend like the Dodgers. The question is why so many owners choose not to reinvest a much larger share of their own revenue into winning. That’s an ownership decision, not a Dodgers problem.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@tmal9_ @PhilsTailgate WAR measures total value in the roles they actually played; it isn’t an offensive stat. Stott’s edge is largely defense and baserunning. If Arraez takes 2B, that value isn’t automatically transferable. Bohm still leads nearly every meaningful career offensive metric.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@2PhuckedUp Nobody said Bohm is an ideal cleanup hitter. The question is Bohm vs. Stott if Arraez takes 2B. You cannot have 110+ wRC+ hitters at every position. A league-average bat still has value, and Bohm’s offensive profile fits a corner spot better.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@tmal9_ @PhilsTailgate Using only 107 games ignores four prior seasons and overweights a slump. Career numbers matter when comparing established players, and fielding percentage alone doesn’t measure defensive value. Stott’s better at 2B; the question is whether that still matters if Arraez takes it.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@tmal9_ @PhilsTailgate Its funny that you only showed 2026

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@2PhuckedUp Calling it “victory lapping” doesn’t make the numbers disappear. Bohm has been 6% more productive by wRC+, with better SLG and xwOBA. You cherry-picked one stat, misunderstood what it measures, and ignored the entire positional argument.

[Tommy @Regress2Green]

@graykillercat @PhilsTailgate Highlight reels don’t change the fact that Stott has a career .387 SLG and a below-average bat. His defense is valuable at second, but if Arraez takes that spot and Stott moves to third, his offensive limitations become a much bigger problem.