RenaeRexing

[Plink2 @plinketyplink2]

That’s all I’m gonna hear from now on

[RenaeRexing @RenaeRexing]

@BoostCare Feb 22 2024 phones and data aren't working can't make calls or text

[Matt Schnuck @mattschnuck]

A famous researcher predicts divorce with 91% accuracy.

He invented a game to protect against the #1 relationship killer.

Here it is (in 3 minutes):

[David Lin @davidlin_TV]

My latest interview w/ @LynAldenContact where we discuss:
- top assets for 2024
- fiscal deficit in U.S. pushing #economy into "emerging markets" style #recession
- #Bitcoin price move
- asset allocation
- "centralized destruction" of #money

https://t.co/QPY9bblNDN

[Angie Thomas @angiecthomas]

I present to you: Fine Art

[The Figen @TheFigen_]

Looks easy like this.

https://t.co/xIP8jZ6v5e

[Citizen Free Press @CitizenFreePres]

Father of the year brought the receipts.

Enough with the lies. Protect the children.

[Walker⚡️ @WalkerAmerica]

Climate change doesn’t cause inflation.

Central bankers printing money causes inflation.

Don’t let them fool you.

Study #Bitcoin

[RenaeRexing @RenaeRexing]

May Baby Shower Giveaway! https://t.co/V0zJH6Nu99

[ForAmerica @ForAmerica]

@GRDecter

[QE Infinity @StealthQE4]

Everything that’s wrong with America.

This story just blows my mind.

Highly educated professionals spending like drunken sailors.

[Vlad @VladTheInflator]

@michaelssword https://t.co/y1TJLNxFCI

[Rich Falk-Wallace @richfalkwallace]

An entire MBA fits on one page.

But you better know the math cold.

Like & comment if you want the excel.

6 topics:

*1) Unit economics*

This builds from product-level unit economics to company financials.

Quantity per unit, growth in units.

Price per unit, growth in pricing.

Cost per unit, marketing spend per unit.

Get you return on ad spend (ROAS), customer acquisition cost (CAC), LTV/CAC, gross margins, unit contribution margins, and more.

This model sets up two diverging products:

A higher gross margin (GM), higher marking cost, low pricing power, low growth product.

Against a lower GM, better pricing power, better growing, lower unit market cost product.

To show how the dynamics of the two play out over time.

*2) Accounting*

Unit drivers flow into revenue, variable COGS, and variable SG&A.

Then to EBITDA, EBIT, EBT, Net income & EPS.

Simple cash flow statements & balance sheets reconcile D&A to inflation-adjusted replacement CapEx, debt levels, & GAAP PP&E.

You have to be fluent in accounting to look at public companies.

Not because accounting itself matters.

But because accounting can obscure what matters.

And your task it to translate GAAP into meaningful business logic.

*3) Operating ratios*

Unit drivers output financials, financials output overall business ratios.

Revenue growth, EBITDA growth, EBITDA margins.

Contribution margins (= change in profit over change in revenue).

Net debt-to-EBITDA, net debt % of EV.

*4) Valuation*

You can drive valuation on multiples or a DCF.

Which are equivalent:

The discount rate minus the growth rate determines the 'terminal multiple.'

Using a P/E instead of a DCF simply uses next year as the terminal value.

This model drives value from the DCF, and maps that to the multiples to show how they connect.

*5) Corporate finance & DCFs*

DCF math attached using the CAPM.

The summary is a beta from historical returns, add the cost of debt.

To get the WACC - the theoretically correct discount rate.

DCFs are extremely assumption laden - you can get out almost whatever you want.

But realistically.

Your banker (or analyst) will make the math work out to a 7-13% discount rate.

Depending on the risks, industry, markets - and what they want to achieve.

*6) Sensitivities & the hard part*

The last section sensitizes the equity value and multiples to unit and price growth.

Bringing unit drivers full circle to valuation outcomes.

Ultimately, the hard part isn't the math.

You have to be fluent in the math, its nuances and its limitations.

If not, you will lose out to those who are.

But once you are, you also have to shift focus.

To the hard part.

Which is always in filling in the numbers.

If you're investing, that means thoughtful views on unit drivers; on how, when, and why they shift.

And if you're building, it means making the numbers on the page happen.

That's all for now.

Like & comment if you want the excel.

[RenaeRexing @RenaeRexing]

@DeerGear , can you get someone from customer service to email me back? I returned 3 items in December, for which I have confirmed the return package was delivered and signed for on December 16th. Over a month later, I am still waiting on my refund. #227716

[RenaeRexing @RenaeRexing]

@TheCryptoLark no dude

[David Lin @davidlin_TV]

"The best way to keep a prisoner from escaping is to make sure he never knows he’s in prison."

- Fyodor Dostoyevsky

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

Fact Checkers: It's a conspiracy that central bankers want to "control" you with CBDCs

Central bankers:

[George Mack @george__mack]

1/ HIGH AGENCY

Once you SEE it - you can never UNSEE it.

Arguedbly the most important personality trait you can foster.

I've thought about this concept every week for the last two years since I heard @ericweinstein discuss it on @tferriss' podcast.

THREAD...

[Documenting ₿itcoin 📄 @DocumentingBTC]

“I think everything @SBF_FTX said about #bitcoin was factually incorrect”

— @jackmallers, 6 months ago

[Wicked @w_s_bitcoin]

Someone who just started DCA'ing $1,000 per month into #bitcoin will probably never reach a whole coin.