RFPEnergySolutions

Energy Industry Experts
Energy consulting & online energy bidding platform/clearinghouse, AI Data Center onsite generation.

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

@omoelerinjare1 God bless that man. And may God help this lady turn her life.

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

@sagesteele What a joke

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: The UAE will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, ending 59 years of membership. The UAE is OPEC's third-largest producer and directly cited the Strait of Hormuz crisis in its decision.

Free from OPEC quotas, the UAE can now flood the market with an additional 1 million barrels per day, undermining Iran's strategy of using high oil prices as leverage against the US.

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

@mitchellvii Absolutely brilliant!

[Richard Meyer @RichardMeyerDC]

I've included all the industrial fuel categories here. Natural gas remains competitive with coal and lower cost than other fuels.

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

The largest RE project ever in the history of the US nears completion, delivering wind generated power in NM to consumers in CA.
The 20-year Sun-Zia project is a 550-mile transmission line that is capable of delivering 3,500MW capacity (roughly 320,000 households) to the Golden State.
The $11BB project is not expected to lower power rates but will provide power to a whopping 0.81% of the state’s population.

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

US power use to beat record highs in 2026 and 2027 as AI use surges, EIA says https://t.co/fImsr4v6Tx

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

Nevada utility to Lake Tahoe: Find electricity elsewhere https://t.co/D0tpMxtCyh

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

THE ONE MInute Energy Update – 3-13-26

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS
. Oil remains above $90 but falling below $90 as early as June ’26.
. Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
. NYMEX natgas prices losing support today even as a winter storm blows through the northern half of the U.S.
. The recent milder than normal weather slashed HDDs by 21%.
. “Geopolitical support” keeping prices elevated.
. Numerous unscheduled pipeline disruptions/constraints today and tomorrow, mostly in the Plains/Gulf regions.
. “Structural Load Growth” – get used to hearing that term on the power side as prices tick up with support from AI/DC growth.
. EIA has dropped their 2026 NYMEX average $3.80. That’s a $0.50 drop in less than a month. Starting to think they haven’t a clue…

NYMEX
Apr ’26 – Open = $3.25, High = $3.31, Low = $3.11, Current = $3.14
+$0.04 from 1 week ago
-$0.89 from 1 year ago
+$1.15 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $3.60
20-day avg = $3.03
9-day avg = $3.07
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.35 (R2) = $3.50
PIVOT = $3.18
SUPPORT = (S1) = $3.10 (S2) = $3.00

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (April ’26 Start) = $3.89
Summer ’26 (April – Oct) = $3.48
Winter ’27 (Nov ’26 – Mar ’27) = $4.47
Summer ’27 (April – Oct) = $3.45
Winter (Nov ’27 – March ’28) = $4.42
Calendar ’27 = $3.84 Calendar ’28 = $4.62
Calendar ‘29 = $3.63 Calendar ’30 = $3.63

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $5.03 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62

BASIS – We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.

2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through March ‘26) = $2.857
2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through March ‘26) = $3.935
2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through March ‘26) = $3.051
2025 avg = $3.103.

LNG EXPORTS Est.= 20.2Bcf, +5.4% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.8Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 4.5Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 112.3Bcf, +5.3% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 115.1Bcf.
DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 110.1Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: Winter weather storm from the Plains to New England. “Heat dome” building in the West, 20-30 degrees above normal.
10 Day = Bullish 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Even
April – June = Bullish May – July = Bullish June – Aug = Bullish
NE/New England = Falling temps and moderate HDDs. 40s-20s.
Mid-Atlantic = CDDs turning to HDDs. 60s-30s.
SE/Gulf = Mild Spring like conditions. 80s-40s.
TX/S. Plains = Comfortable with minimal CDDs/HDDs. 80s-50s.
West/SW = Early season heatwave hits the regions. 90s-50s.
Pac NW/N. Plains = Rain across the region, colder to the east. 50s-10s.
Mid-Con = HDDs increasing with some storm activity. 50s-10s.
RIG COUNT: as of 3-6-26:
Total = 551, +1 w/w.

Oil @ 411 rigs, +4 w/w.
Natural Gas @ 132 rigs, -2 w/w.
Miscellaneous @ 8 rigs, -1 w/w.
Rig count 1 year ago = 592.
STORAGE – 3-12-26 Estimate = -41Bcf. Actual = -38Bcf
Last year = -64Bcf. 5-yr avg = -64Bcf.

+141Bcf compared to this time last year.
-17Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 1,865Bcf.
At 1,848Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasts: 3-31-26 @ 1.90Tcf. 10-31-26 @ 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
NatGas = 41% Nuclear = 19% Coal = 17% Hydro = 6%

Wind = 10% Solar = 7%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I= $0.1393. Resi = $0.1764
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 10:0AM, EST, 3-13-26:

CAISO = -$504 - $25 ERCOT = -$41 - $11 MISO = $19 - $34

PJM = $21 - $38 NYISO = $39 - $42 ISONE = $15 - $31
CRUDE = 2026 = $84.86, 2027 = $69.97, 2028 = $66.45, 2029 = $65.08
THE BOTTOM LINE

It’s hot in the West and cold in the East. NYMEX prices aren’t going to be the best today or by Monday. Basis remains cheaper than usual, so we can pick that up while we wait for NYMEX to fall. Also, if you’re not paying attention to the summer forecasts, you should be.

RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions,
310-433-0137, [email protected], https://t.co/dx1QsYYUmi, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

Trump signs agreement with Big Tech to cover data center electricity costs https://t.co/DFzViz82uz

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

More interregional transmission could save consumers billions: study https://t.co/ixhYlEuEgq via @UtilityDive

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

How America's Power Regions Chose Their Futures and How That Has Played Out https://t.co/M2pJw0Tc93

[Wisdom @Wisdom_HQ]

This is what real wealth looks like.

[John @MagaGrunt1]

🇺🇸I absolutely love this. This young man is an inspiration of hard work love and character. God bless him.🇺�

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

THE ONE MInute Energy Update – 2-20-26

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS
. NYMEX fell below $3.00 yesterday and are right at the $3.00 mark to start today.
. We could see a strong uptick in HDDs early next week followed by early and above average CDDs.
. All regions saw a deficit in yesterday’s storage report.
. West/Mountain regions both have surplus 40% above 5-yr avg.
. LNG demand will increase as Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Plaquemines LNG ramp up.
. LNG exports to EU will account for up to 80% of their total supply by 2030.
. US LNG expected to more than double by 2029 to over 40Bcf/D.
. Wholesale power prices expected to average $51/MWh, an 8.5% increase y/y.
NYMEX
Mar ’26 – Open = $2.97, High = $3.02, Low = $2.94, Current = $3.02
-$0.15 from 1 week ago
-$1.09 from 1 year ago
+$1.26 from 2 years ago
50-day avg = $3.97
20-day avg = $4.08
9-day avg = $3.14
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.10 (R2) = $3.20
#PIVOT = $2.95
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.85 (S2) = $2.75

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (March ’26 Start) = $3.58
Summer ’26 (April – Oct) = $3.27
Winter ’27 (Nov ’26 – Mar ’27) = $4.13
Summer ’27 (April – Oct) = $3.38
Winter (Nov ’27 – March ’28) = $4.29
Calendar ’27 = $3.70 Calendar ’28 = $4.47
Calendar ‘29 = $3.60 Calendar ’30 = $3.62

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg by Year
2026 = $6.07 2025 = $3.45 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07 2019 = $2.62

BASIS – We are not allowed to post/publish daily Basis pricing. Please contact us directly for pricing.

2026 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through Feb ‘26) = $3.33
2025 avg = $3.568.
2026 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through Feb ‘26) = $4.64
2025 avg = $3.891.
2026 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through Feb ‘26) = $3.78
2025 avg = $3.103.

LNG EXPORTS Est.= 19.7Bcf, +2.4% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.1Bcf.
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.6Bcf.
DRY PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 113.1Bcf, +12.1% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 117.8Bcf.
DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 115.5Bcf.
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Low with a possible move to High
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: Storm moving quickly across the US could bring significant snow/frigid temps by early next week to the eastern seaboard.
10 Day = Even 8-14 Day = Bearish 3-4 Week = Bearish
March – May = Bullish April – June = Bullish May – June = Bullish
NE/New England = Winter advisories with as much as 8” of snow. 00-50.
SE/Gulf = Above normal temps with light showers. 50-85.
Mid-Con = Winter advisories for this region as well. 20-45.
Plains = Warm & windy with elevated fire risk. -10-50.
West = Clearer skies before ANOTHER storm moves in next week. 35-70.
SW = Record heat and elevated fire risk. 20-70.
RIG COUNT: as of 2-13-26:
Total = 551, no change w/w.

Oil @ 409 rigs, -3 w/w.
Natural Gas @ 133 rigs, +3 w/w.
Miscellaneous @ 9 rigs, no change w/w.
Rig count 1 year ago = 588.
STORAGE – 2-19-26 Estimate = -159Bcf. Actual = -144Bcf
Last year = -182Bcf. 5-yr avg = -151Bcf.

-59Bcf compared to this time last year.
-123Bcf compared to the 5-year average of 2,193Bcf.
At 2,070Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.95Tcf.
Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-26 = 4.0Tcf.
NATIONAL POWER GENERATION:
NatGas = 39% Nuclear = 19% Coal = 16% Hydro = 6%

Wind = 12% Solar = 8%
kWh PRICE AVERAGE = C&I= $0.1360. Resi = $0.1880
REAL TIME POWER MW PRICING RANGE @ 9:30AM, EST, 2-20-26:

CAISO = -$150 - $61 ERCOT = $16 - -$17 MISO = $23 - $27

PJM = $26 - $28 NYISO= -$48 - $48 ISONE = $45 - $61
CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 9:30AM, EST, 2-20-26:
NG 33%, RE 16%, Hydro 10%, Imports 17%, Battery 16%, Nuke 8%.

THE BOTTOM LINE
Weather will play a bigger part in prices over the next few weeks. We have elevated HDDs for the next few days for large parts of the US, followed by early CDDs across the southern half, possibly for an extended period. This could limit anticipated downward pressure during Shoulder Season.

RFP ES regions: Pac NW, West, SW, Rockies, Mid-Con, Texas, Gulf, Southeast, and PJM.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Managing Partner @ RFP Energy Solutions,

310-433-0137, [email protected], https://t.co/dx1QsYYUmi, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

AWM Financial Newsletter https://t.co/8WFw6sTSuU

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

Natural Gas
March ’26 Trading range: $3.11 to $3.26 ($3.42 was the previous close)
Prices fell approximately 8% today.
Traders can’t decide to follow the tightening supply environment or mild weather forecast.
Production is recovering nicely from the freeze-offs and cold snap 2 weeks ago.
Current Northeast weather has had little to no effect on Appalachian production so far.
No pipeline or production disruptions to speak of this week…so far.
LNG
Approximately 2.4Bcf/D (9% to 11%) of new capacity is expected to come online in 2026, driven by the Plaquemines LNG Phase 2 expansion and Exxon's Golden Pass Train 1.
Recent executive actions have prioritized lifting pauses on export permits and expediting the permitting process for new terminals in Texas and Louisiana.
Power
Prices in the Western half of the US are cheap while prices in the NE remain elevated.
NatGas demand for power gen in 2025 decreased by 3% due to higher natgas prices.
The gap was filled by an 11% increase in coal-fired gen and 32% increase in solar gen.
Today’s Drivers
The Bears – Near record production, 2.5-year high for active rigs, mild weather promised.
The Bulls – LNG exports expected to stay strong, forward supply/demand tightening, storage tightening, power gen demand quietly growing.
Today’s Specials – “Signs of Strain” from Bloomberg
Bloomberg wrote about the 1-27-26 natgas price rally that halted trading for 2 minutes (numerous times), leading to a lack of price discovery, causing settlement prices to fall from the $7.30 price to $6.95.
So, some traders who should have seen bigger gains did not, and some traders who should have seen losses did not.
The market seems to have been manipulated, but by whom??
Take a guess who doesn’t have to worry as much about this occurring when it occurs…
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

Natural Gas
March ’26 Trading range: $3.89 to $3.57
Midwest & Northeast temps remain below normal for the next 48–72 hours.
HDDs remain elevated.
The return of some frozen wells is starting to ease supply concerns as we surpass 102Bcf/D production.
Outlooks from the NOAA show temperatures turning milder from the first week of February, reducing earlier anticipated heating demand.
LNG
Exports are increasing, estimated to be back above 17Bcf by tomorrow, up from the 1-year low of 11.6Bcf a few days ago.
Power
Generation climbed to a record 4,046BB kWh in 2025. Generation was up by 99BB kWh (+2.5%) compared with 2024.
Nearly 80% of the extra generation came from non-fossil sources (+77BB kWh) almost all from solar (+71BB kWh).
Fossil generation increased by 22BB kWh with extra coal-fired output (+82BB kWh) more than offsetting a downturn from gas (-63BB kWh).
Today’s Drivers
The Bears – Production increasing, freeze-offs falling, a very warm West region taking up less demand.
The Bulls – Persistent cold for the MW/NE/Mid-Atlantic, LNG recovering, and a lack of solar.
Today’s Specials
Traders are paying more attention to the storage surplus, around 6% above the 5-year average, than they are paying to the current winter storm.
So, because of that, a supply deficit isn’t being priced into current pricing yet.
Power wise, the extreme pricing appears to be behind us for now with the market shifting from panic pricing to risk management mode with a growing focus on “what happens next”.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

Natural Gas
Trading range: $3.38 to $3.99
NYMEX futures increased as much as 25% in today’s trading alone.
This marks a 3-week high in NYMEX prices.
Basis in the West is falling, especially at the PG&E CG delivery point where forward months are enjoying negative Basis prices.
LNG
Export capacity utilization is at or near record levels, with LNG demand reaching 20.4Bcf/D in recent reports.
Europe and Asia are competing for LNG cargoes as cold snaps strengthen demand overseas.
Power
NatGas remains the #1 contributor to power generation in the US.
Solar made a big push last year and is expected to contribute an even higher percent in 2026 than it did in 2025.
NatGas will continue to provide balancing capacity for intermittent renewable energy.
Today’s Drivers
The Bears – Surplus supply and storage, production increasing.
The Bulls – Larger storage withdrawals expected for the balance of Jan ’26, HDDs increasing, LNG exports increasing.
Today’s Specials
18Bcf to 22Bcf of new capacity is being built in the US in 2026.
Most of this capacity will go directly to LNG terminals for the exporting market, increasing the US dominance LNG.
Approximately 2.3Bcf/D of this new capacity will be on the Energy Transfer’s Transwestern Pipeline to the Southwest C&I market.
Unfortunately for California, there are no plans to expand the current capacity into or in the Golden State.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap

[RFPEnergySolutions @RFPESLLC]

NatGas & Oil
Trading range: $3.32 to $3.50
Demand for today is estimated to be 89.5Bcf, a staggering 25% less than 1 year ago.
Some “experts” believe Venezuela will not be the headline in oil for 2026. They believe it will be the balancing act OPEC will have to perform to between demand and production.
Estimates on global usage put daily demand at 25.6MM barrels versus OPEC’s estimated daily production of 29.1MM barrels.
LNG
According to the EIA, there are 5 major LNG terminals being built right now in the US, scheduled to ship out a combined 9.7Bcf/D.
Add to that another 8 terminals in either construction planning or in commissioning phases.
Canada has 3 terminals under construction plus another 3 in the planning/commissioning stages.
Mexico has another 2 terminals under construction.
That’s a lot of North American NatGas that will not be showing up at your burner tip.
Power
Gas-fired generation remains a key driver for power margins, and recent weakness in NatGas prices is helping to keep spark spreads quite resilient.
Mild weather continues to temper winter power load in many regions, reducing upward pressure on wholesale electricity prices for now.
Today’s Drivers
The Bears – Warmer weather, below normal storage withdrawals, below normal demand.
The Bulls – Strong LNG export numbers, AI/DC demand fear, power gen demand expected to stay steady to slightly increase.
Today’s Specials
The WH is awarding a total of $2.7BB to 3 companies to support uranium enrichment for nuclear energy.
American Centrifuge Operating, General Matter and Orano Federal Services will receive $900 million each.
Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap