Riddle Russia

An online journal on Russian affairs. На русском @RidlRussia

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

For the first time ever, Brussels is directly punishing a third party - Kyrgyzstan with export bans after an 800%+ surge in re-exports of critical tech to Russia’s war machine.
A new precedent in the sanctions regime?
@RiddleRussia
https://t.co/22xJ4nhM57

[Riddle Russia @RiddleRussia]

For a long time, the Kremlin has wanted to push KPRF out of second place in Russian parliament. Now, however, it is trying to calm them down to avoid the risk of Communists actually doing real politics and voicing genuine concerns of ordinary Russians.
https://t.co/CIyO7M0QWr

[Riddle Russia @RiddleRussia]

The downturn in metallurgy has gotten so bad that only four regions(out of 89, 6 of which are in occupied Ukraine but part of Russian statistics) are currently on track to be net donors to the federal budget Russia
@ntrickett16
https://t.co/iVRZ2nZNk3

[Riddle Russia @RiddleRussia]

"Economic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is distinguished by a degree of flexibility almost unimaginable in Russia’s dealings with any other country. This goes beyond sanctions evasion"
How so?
Read new @Vladi_Moscou analysis
https://t.co/0EgWIOxkgY

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

FSB has no need for #Stalin monuments to return to major cities, nor his full rehabilitation. Their guy is Felix Dzerzhinsky — and he’s back as much as one could ever be.
In short: he was a de-facto terrorist with a talent for institutionalized terror.
https://t.co/INk9X8MfB2

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

This week for @RiddleRussia, Andrey Pertsev argues that Russia’s Presidential Administration is carefully weighing every step ahead of the elections — keenly aware that a worsening economy and the protracted war could easily fuel protest voting https://t.co/g4XUkHg3dx

[Riddle Russia @RiddleRussia]

For a long time, the Kremlin has wanted to push KPRF out of second place in Russian parliament. Now, however, it is trying to calm them down to avoid the risk of Communists actually doing real politics and voicing genuine concerns of ordinary Russians.
https://t.co/CIyO7M0QWr

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

There is no magical tipping point at which #Russian #elites are going to rage against the regime in its current configuration. Everyone individually is too invested in their own survival and the value of their assets or political influence. Those assets and that influence rapidly lose their value the moment they stand up—not only because they cannot coherently challenge Putin, but also because they expose themselves to counter-attacks from other elites hoping to gain more by showing their devotion to the boss.
Russian regime is remarkably adept at turning its failures into business opportunities. Unfortunately for the regime, there is a whole lot of failure to come if it can’t resolve the tension between monetary and fiscal policy alongside deteriorating conditions at the front. Putin’s capacity to directly impose pain on interest groups has weakened, hidden behind technocratic instruments of governance that spread the pain around. But that weakness is strength in the system now governing a regime carried forward by inertia and his refusal to make difficult decisions.
Read full @ntrickett16 @RiddleRussia Economic weekly analysis - link in first comment

[Riddle Russia @RiddleRussia]

The downturn in metallurgy has gotten so bad that only four regions(out of 89, 6 of which are in occupied Ukraine but part of Russian statistics) are currently on track to be net donors to the federal budget Russia
@ntrickett16
https://t.co/iVRZ2nZNk3

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

Russia has become a technological vassal of China—with no viable alternatives.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

https://t.co/Su9rJp5A0J

[Riddle Russia @RiddleRussia]

"Economic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is distinguished by a degree of flexibility almost unimaginable in Russia’s dealings with any other country. This goes beyond sanctions evasion"
How so?
Read new @Vladi_Moscou analysis
https://t.co/0EgWIOxkgY

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

Russia - #China
It is often stated that Russia was the energy appendage of Europe and is now an energy appendage of China — or even China’s “economic vassal.”
In broad strokes, that’s kind of true. But details matter.
Russia has been able to diversify its exports:
• Oil exports to India have increased four times as much as to China from 2021 to 2025
• The biggest importer of Russian fertilizers is not China but India
• Oil and petroleum products of Russian origin are now being sold to Thailand, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and South Korea
I’m not saying Russian exports could survive without China, but what matters most is Russia’s heavy dependence on high-end imports from China.
Chinese equipment now accounts for nearly 100% of the Russian market for mobile-signal transmission gear;
~90% of smartphones;
60–70% of personal computers and automobiles.
Virtually all microprocessors and chips used in Russian industry — including the defense sector — arrive from China or via China.
Check out the full details in the new @RiddleRussia
piece by @Vladi_Moscou on the Russia-China economic relationship - link in first comment

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

Highlights of @RiddleRussia publications from last week.
@Er_Woods on Ukraine's capacity to keep fighting Russia
Ksenia Smolyakova on Russia's second tier parties and what their function is
Key political news of the week analysis by Pertsev and economic by @ntrickett16
1/5

[Riddle Russia @RiddleRussia]

Betting on the phantom peaceful intentions of the Russian president risks prompting misguided decisions and missteps—the very outcome the Kremlin is counting on, hoping to exploit other players’ mistakes.
https://t.co/H18FnaApsR

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

To the day the biggest anti-China party in Russia is the "Greater Rostec clan" with Sergei Chemezov and his "princes" like deputy PM Manturov who openly attacks Chinese auto industry while Putin is visiting China
https://t.co/KyEOhSUsBi

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

Tempting though it has been to portray Russia as a big winner from Iran conflict, Beijing visit suggests something far more damning: the prospect of the worst energy crisis in more than half a century is not enough to materially change Beijing’s approach.
https://t.co/1DrguM2bwL

[Riddle Russia @RiddleRussia]

Failure to reach an agreement on Power of Siberia 2 was symbolic of Moscow’s larger problem: even amid impending energy shock, China has options. Moscow, desperate for extra revenues to avoid larger domestic price increases, do not
@ntrickett16
https://t.co/A0XMar1Ky0

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

In this @RiddleRussia piece, @Er_Woods takes stock of Ukraine’s capacity to keep fighting Russia — and evaluates Russia’s ability to meaningfully change the dynamic on the ground
https://t.co/9K17Ln9kGs

[Riddle Russia @RiddleRussia]

"Ukraine needs Europe more than ever. Without direct European loans and grants, its domestic economy would likely collapse, cascading into a further contraction of the tax base on which it depends"
@Er_Woods
https://t.co/gxO4i83JAM

[Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin]

May 27 at 18:00 (CET) @RiddleRussia is hosting a closed webinar(in Russian):
“Middle East: How to Work with Information About the Region”
During the webinar, we’ll explore how to build a reliable and accurate picture of events in the region — even if you don’t speak Turkish, Arabic, or Farsi.
With top regional expert speakers - @NikitaSmagin and Ruslan Suleymanov
Registration: https://t.co/PzgmyyHpxg