Risk and Chips

just a chimp with a keyboard

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

1/ As many people know, Elon Musk is not the founder of $TSLA. That honor goes to Martin Eberhard. I have heard bits and pieces of the story in the past, but today I went back and dug up Eberhard's lawsuit against Musk for pushing him out of Tesla. In one word... insane $tslaq

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

Who came up with 20% of DRAM volume and 30% of NAND volume numbers in the SCAs vs higher %? Did $MU want to reserve volume for spot in the future, or did customers want to reserve some spot and volume exposure on their memory needs?

[General Markets @generalmkts]

SCOTUS ruled in Montgomery v. Caribe the FAAAA doesn't shield brokers from negligent hiring claims if a carrier they select causes an accident. Brokers must perform “reasonable carrier vetting,” but the required data is scarce & no standard has been established $KNX $WERN $SNDR

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@JaredKubin Couple that with making it easier to research some non-US and non-English companies. In some areas, there’s like a crowding trend - but from people all finding a new name collectively, which has a higher sensitivity

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@JaredKubin I wonder how it affects flows into non-US stocks? Just personal use, using LLMs for top-down research has definitely broadened out names I look at for a given theme (and I feel I already invested in more non-US than most US investors!)

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@JaredKubin and Anth has been steadily rolling out integrations/features better than other labs, so there isn't really pressure to preempt to ensure you have the most internal capabilities. Anth is already leading the feature race, so they feel like they can fast-follow the hivemind

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@JaredKubin Kinda similar dynamic to a mktplace being a trusted curator, lending products certain cred by being on your platform. Early users are fine w open source, but mainstream users likely only see/trust things announced by Anth. They can also manage use by slowrolling OP features

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@JaredKubin crowdsourcing R&D? It's a pain that these aren't already included, but we are willing to create and share them and Anthropic et al get to see where the feature demand is in real-time. They can then focus on correct implementation of most in-demand features

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@MikeDzikowski @DKPredictions @DKReignmakers @DraftKings @DKSportsbook The bull case is that it massively expands the TAM. Results from Kalshi/Poly/HOOD/etc. shows how fast it's growing, and the extent it isn't cannibalizing traditional OSB is the extent it offers new TAM

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

This chart doesn't seem to show live betting is underperforming, but shows that more people are betting both pre-game and live than they originally expected? Live + Both was 52% planned vs 50% actual

Also, 2 totally different survey groups make comps hard here

[InGame @InGameHQ]

Optimove report found parlays remained popular, but live betting was not the boon operators anticipated.

Some of the findings, gleaned from “observed behavior” of nearly four million bettors, and using preseason and follow-up surveys of 425 others, underscore a potentially troubling trend for the domestic sports betting industry, specifically that the nation’s most popular league failed to generate the expected traction for live betting, which is considered a long-term profit generator for sportsbooks.

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@JaredKubin @mag_pl I love the factor spread analysis… maybe a section to have the most popular spreads or where you can go through your own spreads on a watchlist? I’d love to go through a couple go-to spreads more easily!

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@JaredKubin Depth + pitching builds a more robust roster that gives your stars time to be stars

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@JaredKubin Quite literally, they bought margin of error through depth and pitching. NYM spent like crazy (though about 1 Ohtani less than LAD), but built such a fragile team - their stars performed, but everyone else let them down and that sinks the ship

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@astraffon Both the retail flow and the MM flow from SIG?

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@DCat7 Less dramatic than the edge case, but does it change the convo going forward for new states? BetMGM/CZR may have a better case for new states to tie licenses to land-based casinos, or something like that? It’s hard for states to resist the tax $ from the 2 whales, obviously

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@a_kane47 Promos? I would have thought that the lure of the parlay itself would be pretty strong? But I guess the key is promo + the lure of parlays?

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

“Environmentalists were shocked to learn their main opposition was… environmentalists”

[NPR @NPR]

Resistance to nuclear power is on the decline worldwide — and environmentalists helped lead the push. Here's why it's gaining support.
https://t.co/1b10jTd1d3

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@ElonBachman Unfortunately, it seems that masks stop the spread of of hypochondriacs just as poorly as they stop the spread of covid

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@ElonBachman Just put the “no fentanyl” light right next to the “no smoking” light

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@ajb_powell He was obviously doing due diligence on the next Luckin

[Risk and Chips @RiskAndChips]

@odbcapital @ElonBachman And mass shootings under your definition, or the ones that make the news, are motivated by… root causes that can be solved by gun laws?