MicroStrategy traded at a 3X premium to its own Bitcoin a year and a half ago. That premium just fell to 1X. This is a regime change for how MSTR operates going forward. #River1
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River1 flagged MicroStrategy's Bitcoin premium as unsustainable across three prior videos, at $423, $320, and $180 a share. MSTR now trades at $87 with no premium left. #River1
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MicroStrategy's Bitcoin premium just fell from 3X to 1X, and $MSTR said this week, for the first time, it plans to sell Bitcoin, retire debt, and buy back stock.
Here's what that regime change actually means for the stock.
No premium at 1X makes $MSTR a better entry point than it's been in over a year. But we'd rather see it trade below NAV, not exactly at it, given the fund outflows and forced Bitcoin selling working against the stock right now.
Fiserv carries $29B in debt against $8B EBITDA, about 3.5x leverage. But the valuation side tells a different story: 6x EV/EBITDA, a 5 forward PE for 2028, a 9% free cash flow yield.
Cheap on every metric, if the numbers hold. #River1
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"If a public company puts their name on a stadium, look out below."
Fiserv did exactly that, and the stock has been one of the more troubled fintech names since.
We dig into what's actually going on with FISV, and whether there's value here now. #River1
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"If a public company puts their name on a stadium, look out below." Fiserv did it in 2020. The stock has been a troubled name since. We break down whether there's actual value here now. 🧵 #River1#FISV
The market hates negative revenue growth, and 2026 guidance points to -5%. Models assume a return to historical growth, pushing EPS up nearly 10%. The market isn't pricing that as a certainty. It's pricing the risk the decline continues.