Rory Proud

Co-Founder of 🚢 📊 single source of access to 200+ data services.

[Rory Proud @RKProud]

13/13 0.5% to 11% in six months.
Analysis from 18 months of deduplicated cargo-level data.

If projective fuel oil flows are relevant to you: https://t.co/d4XaeaLSHO

[Rory Proud @RKProud]

1/13 Venezuela's share of global fuel oil exports has gone from 0.5% to 11% in six months.

Perhaps not news to some, but I didn't realise the scale and rate of change. Here's what the cargo-level data shows 🧵

[Rory Proud @RKProud]

12/13 The regional comparison might be the most telling part.

Arabian Gulf: 13.1M MT (38.7%) in Jan to 4.7M MT (23.1%) in June

Venezuela: 0.18M MT (0.5%) in Jan to 2.25M MT (11.0%) in June.

Total market: 33.7M MT to 20.4M MT. A 40% contraction.

[Rory Proud @RKProud]

The data used for this analysis is fuel oil and feedstock flows which update weekly (market intel vs AIS derived).

Layered with AIS and SAR could be an interesting way to track the build in real time. 8/8

[Rory Proud @RKProud]

There are roughly 55 million barrels queuing off Malaysia. 1/8 🧵

[Rory Proud @RKProud]

Either Iranian exports have accelerated, or Chinese buying has stalled, which dovetails with the China refinery slow down story from my thread yesterday. 7/8

[Rory Proud @RKProud]

And none of it appears in official inventory statistics 6/8

[Rory Proud @RKProud]

As far as I understand this queue is effectively Iran’s shop window inventory. Barrels produced and shipped but not yet sold. 5/8

[Rory Proud @RKProud]

That is more than half a day of global oil demand on the water in one place. 4/8

[Rory Proud @RKProud]

Most are vessels that looked to be associated with sanctioned Iranian trade, sitting around the STS zones that clear those barrels. 3/8

[Rory Proud @RKProud]

Data shows 16 laden tankers at anchor off Malaysia and Indonesia, around 30 million barrels of crude and fuel oil, with another 14 underway and due by 20 July carrying a further 25 million. 2/8