Striped Penny 🏃‍♀️🐶🦕🦖🌎🏳️‍🌈

☂️I’m a loner, Dottie, a rebel. ☂️Come on Simone, let’s talk about that big but of yours.☂️ I’ll see you after the show at the big Will It Float party.

[Striped Penny 🏃‍♀️🐶🦕🦖🌎🏳️‍🌈 @RobustPenny]

@ayeejuju The contest would be between B and C. The other two quadrants have very little going for them.

[Striped Penny 🏃‍♀️🐶🦕🦖🌎🏳️‍🌈 @RobustPenny]

@TerribleMaps Ummmmm

[Lumida Wealth Management @LumidaWealth]

SETH KLARMAN JUST FLAGGED THE AI RISK NOBODY IS PRICING IN.

The founder of Baupost Group and author of Margin of Safety almost never makes market commentary in public, which makes his recent remarks on AI, credit cycles, and political risk particularly worth sitting with.

Klarman's starting point was the strange backdrop markets have been operating in. There hasn't been significant downside volatility since the GFC. Corporate bankruptcies have been historically low. But the cracks are appearing now, in private credit, in commercial real estate, and across pockets of the corporate market that have absorbed too much leverage for too long. The conditions for a real credit cycle, he believes, are forming.

What makes this cycle different from prior ones is the inflationary pressure coming from a place markets have never seen before. Baupost's own real estate book is seeing surging demand for industrial land, warehouses, and cold storage. The AI data center buildout is pushing prices higher across electricians, transformers, copper, electrical equipment, and land at the same time. Onshoring is layered on top. As Klarman put it, the demand for the physical inputs into AI is through the roof.

Short term, that's clearly inflationary. Long term, AI is supposed to be deflationary because it makes labor more productive. But Klarman's warning is sharper than that. Once the genie of higher wages and elevated costs is out of the bottle, getting it back in is politically impossible. Workers don't accept compensation rollbacks. Prices don't fall easily. The deflationary thesis sounds great in a spreadsheet and lands very differently in an economy.

Here's the part that almost nobody is pricing into AI exposure. Klarman is direct about it. The political crackdown on data centers is coming. It probably won't come from Washington first. It will come from town councils, county boards, and state regulators where citizens are already up in arms about water usage, grid load, and noise. By the 2028 election cycle, AI policy will be a defining political issue, not a technical one. The rules haven't been written. The current administration hasn't really gotten its head around writing them. And local backlash is accelerating.

Klarman's broader point is that there are a lot of risks not baked into current prices. Overall AI risk that it runs amok. Political risk that builds out gets blocked at the local level. Credit risk that's already starting to surface. None of these are tail events. They're forming in real time, and the market is still pricing as if none of them exist.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

THE LIQUIDITY KING SPEAKS.

Michael Howell has been remarkably prescient and has had the single best call on markets in recent years, bar none!

He accurately called the bear market at the end of 2021 and correctly called the bottom in the fourth quarter of 2022.

He was consistently bullish until earlier this year.

Caveat Emptor, as he has been warning about less buoyant liquidity.

NOBODY has done as good a job in calling markets as @crossbordercap .

NOBODY.

[Striped Penny 🏃‍♀️🐶🦕🦖🌎🏳️‍🌈 @RobustPenny]

@jam_croissant I knew it! I always had you packed as a huge Real Housewives of New Jersey fan!!

[no.mind @the_no_mind]

2/ The synthesis: Sun is only healthy when diligently dosed and used.

Neither avoidance nor maximization is correct. ​

According to Wunsch, the biohacker position was a necessary overcorrection.

When a population spends 95% of its life indoors in biological darkness, a loud voice saying "get more sun" was needed.

But according to Wunsch this is not the truth. It replaces one error with another.

[AI Highlight @AIHighlight]

🚨 In 2016, an Uber data scientist confirmed the company knew people pay more for a ride when their phone battery is low.

It is called surveillance pricing. Your data sets your price.

Delta is rolling it out on 20% of flights this year. Here is how it works:

[Katyayani Shukla @aibytekat]

If Apple tells you your iPhone needs a new battery because it keeps dying, do this first.

I went from charging three times a day to 48-hour battery life in one night.

I hope this helps you as it has helped me:

[Craig Brockie @CraigBrockie]

Northwestern just published 25 years of research on 80-year-olds with the memory of 50-year-olds.

They call them SuperAgers.

Their brains aren't just resisting Alzheimer's. They're physically different.

Here's what scientists discovered and how to become one 🧵

[A Paradise for Parents @HalCranmer]

@RealMilesBerger Highly recommend to watch his YouTube video on it as well:

https://t.co/1An6fpQNa0

[Striped Penny 🏃‍♀️🐶🦕🦖🌎🏳️‍🌈 @RobustPenny]

@MaryBowdenMD Good for you and your father, Francis!!!

[Striped Penny 🏃‍♀️🐶🦕🦖🌎🏳️‍🌈 @RobustPenny]

@HeatherMcDonald

[aka @akafaceUS]

Using the patch as a template to cut the hole beforehand is actually a smart idea!

[Striped Penny 🏃‍♀️🐶🦕🦖🌎🏳️‍🌈 @RobustPenny]

@adamtaggart @ABC11_WTVD Your post reminds me that common sense isn’t particularly common. This is just evidence that when someone’s loved one dies, no one’s reaction is: gee better run out and notify the election board. I’m really baffled why you keep creating such dense posts lately. 🤷‍♀️

[TheHappyHawaiian @ThHappyHawaiian]

It is time once again to sell put spreads on MOS,

Likely a good time for call leaps also

[Striped Penny 🏃‍♀️🐶🦕🦖🌎🏳️‍🌈 @RobustPenny]

@davidsawyer1 @t_NYC Well that’s because we do. I recommend doing a little reading on America’s sewer system. “Potomac River and sewage” is a good intro google search on this topic. Will be rather eye-opening for you.

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

LIQUIDITY: Our models are signaling sudden stop risk is as high as it's been since January 2020. The short video in the post below is worth a watch if you don't understand the risk that this poses to your portfolio.

[Rick Rule @RealRickRule]

Very nice work, thank you

[Striped Penny 🏃‍♀️🐶🦕🦖🌎🏳️‍🌈 @RobustPenny]

@ick_real Hattie