Hey @sloprules! Me and my buds are huge fans of your work man. Yesterday you hit one of the greatest tickets of all time (nbd of course). Congrats man! Wednesday night we turned $1 into $30K and we can’t get any love from @br_betting like you bigger guys do. Mind helping us out?
🏈 +40,000 NFL Touchdown Lotto
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All legs are from my TD Model.
🏈 FALCONS vs SAINTS NFL MNF BEST BET
🚀 JUWAN JOHNSON ANYTIME TD
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🗣️ "Juwan Johnson has three touchdowns this season and is averaging 6.3 targets per game.
Johnson has been a huge part of the Saints' passing game, particularly in the red zone, with six red-zone targets and four of them in the end zone. Only Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has more end-zone targets than Johnson entering Week 4.
The Saints face a Falcons defense that has allowed six passing touchdowns this season, three to tight ends.
Johnson is coming off a two-touchdown performance against the Raiders — I'm riding with him tonight in the hopes he gets another touchdown in a plus matchup." @GDAWG5000
Puka Nacua has a PRE-hernia confirmed ⬇️
Basically this is an early SPORTS HERNIA.
Essentially it’s weakened spot or microscopic tear in the muscle or tissue wall—usually in the abdomen or groin—where a full hernia has not yet formed.
🏈 Tee Higgins vs Jacksonville Jaguars 👀
This is one of the more interesting WR matchups in this game because when you dig into where Higgins actually wins, Jacksonville has some clear weaknesses that line up with his usage.
Through 3 games Higgins has:
🎯 23 Targets
🎯 14 Receptions
🎯 244 Receiving Yards
🎯 1 TD
🔥 2.54 Yards/Route
🔥 24.0% Targets/Route
Higgins has lined up WIDE on 89% of his routes this season 47% from the left and 41% from the right. Jacksonville has allowed 119.0 receiving YDS/G to players lined up wide through 3 games.
Now look at the coverages Higgins will see:
🎯 Cover 3 — 27.4% of JAX coverage
Higgins: 5.8 Y/T | 13.3% Targets/Route | 50% Catch
🎯 Cover 4 — 26.3%
Higgins: 10.5 Y/T | 22.2% Targets/Route | 75% Catch
🔥 Cover 1 — 22.1%
Higgins: 15.6 Y/T | 63.6% Targets/Route | 9.9 Yards/Route | 71.4% Catch
Cover 3, Cover 4 and Cover 1 make up 75.8% of Jacksonville's charted coverage. Cover 1 is the matchup that REALLY stands out. Jacksonville is using it 22.1% of the time and Higgins ranks in the 93rd percentile against it with +1.16 EPA/Target. 👀
Now look at his route tree vs Jacksonville:
💣 Go: 16.5% of routes | JAX 4th most YDS/G allowed | 25.5 Y/T
🎯 In: 16.5% | JAX 10th most | 16.3 Y/T
🎯 Post: 15.5% | JAX 11th most
🎯 Out: 11.3% | JAX 5th most YDS/G allowed
Those four routes make up 59.8% of Higgins' route tree. The Go route is the one that jumps off the page it's his 2nd most-used route, Jacksonville ranks 4th in yards allowed on it, and Higgins is averaging 25.5 yards per target on his Go opportunities. 💣
Now look at the WR/CB matchup Based on alignment overlap, Montaric Brown is the defender Higgins is projected to see on the largest share of his routes at 42%.
Brown in 2026:
🎯 11.2% Targets/Play
🚨 13.62 Yards/Target
🚨 +0.66 EPA/Target
Higgins could also see Jarrian Jones on another 40% of his routes, and Jones is allowing 11.00 Yards/Target.
That means 82% of Higgins' projected route overlap comes against Brown or Jones, who are allowing 13.62 and 11.00 Yards/Target. Between his wide alignment, Cover 1 production, route tree and the potential CB matchups, there are multiple areas Higgins can attack in this matchup. 👀🔥
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NFL Play #1 for Sunday
Kyren Williams Over 56.5 Rush Yards
100❤️ and I’ll drop NFL Play #2
The Eagles are allowing the 7th MOST yards to RBs and Kyren is over in 23/25 vs teams allowing Top 22 most rush yards
Especially when Kyren has 85 and 88 yards the last two games and looks like the Rams clear RB1 despite Blake Corum
With Devonta Smith likely out for Eagles they could get blown out again after the Bears last week which means tons of runs for Rams
Kyren is also over in 23/24 vs Bottom 22 run defenses when Rams don’t lose by 20+ and averages 81.5 yards (56.5 line)
Best Line: -114 Fanduel
Playable up to 62.5 on other books
🏈 +6500 NFL Touchdown Lotto
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All legs are from my NFL Model.
He is going to CRUSH the Browns
Bucky Irving 60+ Rush Yards
75❤️ and I’ll drop NFL Play #5
Bucky has a 15.5 rush attempts line and has hit 60+ in 16/18 with 11+ rush attempts which he should hit easily
Especially as the Browns are big underdogs dogs and Tampa should have the whole lead
With Gainwell more of a pass catcher I expect Bucky to get almost all the rush work and he has 55+ in 17/17 with 11+ rush attempts when he gets just 2.7 YPC or better
Giving him a great shot today as he is also over in 15/19 non injury games coming in and over in four straight after an under
Best Line: -140 Fanduel
Happy Sione Vaki day to those who celebrate.
Played just 29% of snaps week 1 but ran 17 routes (same as Gibbs)
He was the only other RB to play any snaps, should be a good game script tonight for passing as well. The odds are too good to pass up for me.
Day baseball calls for @gneiffer07 bangers!!!! 🚀
⚾️ Juan Soto 1+ HR (+350)
⚾️ Junior Caminero 1+ HR (+360)
⚾️ Kevin McGonigle 1+ HR (+550)
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