Rootclaim

Settle controversies using real-world data and math. Calculating reality the way no human can.

[Rootclaim @Rootclaim]

Note that we calculated the expected prevalence among blood donors and found the zero samples evidence to fit both hypotheses well. The blood bank study is therefore not evidence for either hypothesis.

from here: https://t.co/a4MiXKlbpx

[Claim:] “30,000 people donated blood in autumn 2019, and the hospitals still had most of it. So they tested the blood samples for COVID antibodies and didn’t find any… There are 12 million people in Wuhan, so if even a few hundred people had COVID during that time, one of them should have turned up. None of them did.��

[Rootclaim response:]
This is missing two important factors:

We need to give 1-2 weeks for antibodies to develop.
People are not allowed (and don’t want) to donate blood until feeling well.
That means this whole sample is delayed by around 3 weeks. So let’s see what zero positive blood samples tell us:

We have 44,000 samples 1-Sep to 31-Dec.
Since infections more than double every week, almost all the positives will fall on the last week. That’s 44000/13=3400 samples or 1 in 3000 Wuhan residents.
So to have one positive sample, we need ~3000 infected in early December.
That’s 11.5 doublings. At 3.5 days it’s 5.7 weeks, bringing patient zero to late October or later. (Doubling is probably slower at that time, so it’s even earlier, but never mind).
That perfectly matches the evidence under lab leak (Reed, Chen, the lineages in the market, and more), so the blood samples have no weight as evidence on origins.

[Rootclaim @Rootclaim]

Rootclaim's team is currently fully dedicated to teaching AI models the art of probabilistic inference, and will likely not be publishing new analyses in the meantime. If this effort is successful, we will be able to provide accurate and transparent analyses of every public controversy immediately as it happens - a service we think humanity desperately needs.

[Rootclaim @Rootclaim]

Interesting updates since the Rootclaim debate on covid origins - lab leak or zoonosis?
@Rootclaim founder @saarwilf, interviewed with Destiny @TheOmniLiberal and discussed how probabilistic inference can help resolve such controversies, and how despite zoonosis winning in the debate, all evidence that came out since then completely contradicts zoonosis.

🧵Thread of the interview’s highlights:

[Rootclaim @Rootclaim]

We are also in the midst of our challenge on covid vaccine safety and efficacy. Despite progressing slowly, it is nearing its end.
https://t.co/fhJDmzp6wn