Rory Johnston (Private)

oil market researcher | founder of
| former bank economist| markets, code, barbecue | subscribe to my research:

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️

Oil prices pop, diesel crack spreads hit all-time highs, crude backwardation sharply steepened, and the US and Iran exchanged intensified strikes amidst still-rising Hormuz oil flows.

Summary below, link to full report in reply.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Washington just scuttled a bunch of Iranian tankers off Kharg island

And Tehran just cluster-bombed a US base in Jordan.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

BBG: "Several explosions were heard from the anchorage area of Iran’s Kharg Island, the semi-official Mehr news agency reports, citing its reporter on the island"

No official explanation yet.

Crude pops a bit but 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

There should be one of those extremely long German words for the specific anticipation you feel when hosting a barbecue and
waiting until the first guests arrive before cracking the day’s first beer

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Nothing quite like waking up to an overnight-smoked Labour Day brisket.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Two things:

1) Gotta buy more Canadian crude, then, bro.

2) tariffs, while no doubt feeling like they address your grievance in the moment, actually make the structural problem worse

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Is it… Is it dead…?

Oh, it’s dead.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Russia-Ukraine peace talks appear to have legs.

Wouldn’t be the first bout of ultimately false hope, but hope is nonetheless welcome.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Oh? 👀

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Re: the ongoing debate about how much oil is getting through Hormuz and whether a particular WH claim is “True”, so so so much comes down to charity of the claim treatment and tone/framing of the assessment.

For example, a claim of 18 MMbbl over a given day can be an especially charitable clipped 24(ish) hour period—true in a tortured sense while misleading or cherry-picked.

Or a really high non-specific number can be charitably interpreted to mean the full broader middle east (with reroutes) rather than Hormuz, specifically.

Or a claim of 9 MMbpd when, say, only 6-7 MMbpd is confirmable can be both said to be “broadly” or “directionally” correct while at the same time being a “plausible exaggeration”. Or if that pace was only realized weeks after the claim it’s just “early.”

This is all fine! But given both the obvious fogginess of the data and the acute political undercurrent to the topic, best if folks are specific.

FWIW, I currently see Hormuz petroleum flows (crude + products) in the ballpark of 8 MMbpd**, with some of that representing re-displaced Saudi crude from the Red Sea.

And based on my tracking I have generally judged White House Hormuz transits numbers are directionally correct, plausible, but cherry-picked and often meant to mislead (like Trump’s 18 MMbbl claim).

**Chart below, highest I’ve confirmed thus far (with adjusted Kpler data) is just more than 8 MMbpd, with the current level lower but expected to be revised higher to roughly that same level.

[Rory Johnston (Private) @Rory_Johnstan]

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明日は濱田南💗💗💗💗
もーいつぶり！！！！！！！
楽しみすぎて寝れんかも😳（笑）
ビリギャル見に行く！
（勝手に決めたん😆😆 （笑） ）
みなみあいしちょう
あしたいっぱい話そうネ！
多分寝ちょん！みなみから誘って
きたくせに！LINEしてきたくせに 😑

[Rory Johnston (Private) @Rory_Johnstan]

.
お腹痛くて何もする気に
なれーーんきつーーい 😔
美空とかなんしよんやっか〜
だれからも連絡こん 。（笑）

[Rory Johnston (Private) @Rory_Johnstan]

@mi_at5

そ！

[Rory Johnston (Private) @Rory_Johnstan]

@mi_at5

明日はどこなん？

[Rory Johnston (Private) @Rory_Johnstan]

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明日���イト頑張ったら
晟花にもGWが待ってるヨ💗💗
しかも三日間もある最高！
美空ん家でBBQたのしみいいい

[Rory Johnston (Private) @Rory_Johnstan]

@_aynr1365

おっけえ💗💗
大活��とかやめとき！
そんなんゆったらみなみ緊張して
お腹痛〜いちぴーぴー泣き出すき😆 笑
明日頑張ってね！！！！！

[Rory Johnston (Private) @Rory_Johnstan]

@xx_39__xx

久しぶり家族ごっこしたい！（笑）

[Rory Johnston (Private) @Rory_Johnstan]

@naaaaatm7272

ほんと？
一瞬でときめいたもんねあれ（笑）

[Rory Johnston (Private) @Rory_Johnstan]

珍しく美空がツイートしちょん！
お泊り.DVD鑑賞.ランチ.イオン
ぜーんぶ楽しかった！
晟花は喧嘩ごっこが1番楽しかった！（笑）
海��けんかったき次休みあえば
いこうネエ！今日は39！！！！