Rptr45

Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.

[JSC @JSCCapital]

0/ $BTC is +10.9% from yesterday's UTC close the biggest 1D move since 4/29 when it was +12.7% and the 14th largest single day move back to 2017. This in the top 3% of all 1D moves dating back to 2011.

[JSC @JSCCapital]

0/ We wrote about $BTC last month highlighting the constructive macro backdrop for both it and gold & some of the idiosyncratic drivers of BTC itself. https://t.co/H3YW2PrIAY

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

1/ Funding was unch at that level for 20 of 22 days and $BTC went from $7512-$8,150 over that time period (+8%). $BTC hit $10K on 2/9 and was up 15-30% over the next 15-30 days. This is the only other period of that prolonged period of lack of vol.

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

0/ With all the focus on DeFi / Alts / Yield Farming coupled with the increased prevalence of @FTX_Official and @binance the Bitmex funding rate has become a snooze. It's been stuck at 0.01%/0.03% for 17 of the last 19 days for the first (and only) time since 12/23/19-1/13/20

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

3/ Looking at trailing $BTC returns trailing 1-10D returns are in the top 20% all time with trailing 20-30D in the top 30%. Over the past 60D BTC is still down ~5% which is bottom 35% performance.

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

0/ Assuming we don't see a big reversal today $BTC is on track for its 8th straight (+) day for the fist time since 6/19-6/26/19 where we made a local high. Bitmex funding was persistently positive over that time avging 0.32% / day vs. -0.01% this time indicative of a spot bid.

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

2/ Coupled with a macro backdrop that is as conducive as its ever been. Risk assets have also been well bid with the S&P on track for its' best month since 1991; so within that context you could argue given the incremental beta $BTC performance has been underwhelming.

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

4/ This is particularly notable given the strong seasonality associated with 2Q historically for $BTC

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

0/ Ever since "Black Thursday" the $BTC funding rate on Bitmex has been persistently negative (shorts paying longs) with 30 of the last 34 days negative. There have been 7 other periods where fundings has been so consistently (-) dating back to '17

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

3/ Interestingly enough if we look at these 8 clusters 5 of them occurred during the March-April time frame.

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

2/ Even though $BTC found a bottom first in Dec '18 sniffing out the "plunge protection team" it didn't react at all to QE4. This is the first bear market. Need risk assets to bottom before $BTC does.

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

0/ $BTC "closed" today down 37.2% which was the fourth worst day all time behind 4/11/13 (-38.%) 4/12/13 (-37.7%) & 9/16/10 (-64.6%). It's now in the bottom 0.5% of observed performance over the last 30D

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

1/ If we look at $BTC forward performance on those three days its a mixed bag because 4/11 & 4/12 were back to back but 4/12 and 9/16 had strong forward performance

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

1/ If $SPX futures continue to be limit down it's tough to see who the incremental buyer of $BTC is despite what bulls will describe as the ideal macro backdrop. This is $BTC first time in a bear market and crypto investors are learning about correlations trending to ~1

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

0/ If $BTC were to close at current levels it would be the ~6th worst trading day of all time. Given the down ~20%+ move BTC is exhibiting bottom 2% 1-30D trailing performance all time

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

3/ As there are talks of yet another rate cut, QE, expanding the asset types the Fed can purchase, MMT, etc... if the macro narrative holds $BTC should perform well in that environment. However if $BTC is just the riskiest asset on the outer edge of the curve more pain is ahead.

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

0/ $BTC has sold off ~12% / 14% over the last 2-3D which represents bottom ~3% historical performance (has only happened ~110 times previously). This marks the worst 3D period since 9/25-9/26/19.

[Rptr45 @Rptr45]

2/ Of course the biggest difference now is the macro market. Over the past 20D the $SPX is down 16% (inclusive of the move lower in futures this AM) vs $BTC -22.5%. In times of stress risk asset correlations tend to gravitate toward 1 & $BTC has not been immune on this move lower