Markets are uneasy, but ARK believes the current macro backdrop is setting up for a turn.
Short-term liquidity pressures, driven by the Federal Reserve’s restrictive stance and the Treasury’s elevated cash balances, are weighing on equity and crypto markets. If interest rates decline further and quantitative tightening ends December 1 as expected, we believe these headwinds should ease soon.
Beneath the surface, inflation data remains sticky, but leading indicators suggest deflationary forces are gaining traction. Declining oil prices, easing money velocity, and productivity gains from technological innovation all suggest inflation will continue to unwind.
While the labor market is softening and government shutdown effects have distorted data, ARK sees these as temporary frictions, not structural weakness. As liquidity returns and policy shifts, a recovery is taking shape.
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🇺🇸 | ÚLTIMA HORA: El senador demócrata Alex Padilla acaba de ser arrojado al suelo y esposado después de interrumpir una conferencia de prensa de Kristi Noem, Secretaria de Seguridad Nacional de los Estados Unidos.
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