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Geopolitical intelligence & analysis.
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[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

Gold's caught between two forces. FOMC: 9 of 18 expect rate hikes — hawkish lock, dollar rising, gold bleeding. Iran deal: already collapsing — Israel kept bombing Lebanon, Tehran says the US broke the terms. Gold at $4,163. The safe-haven bid hasn't returned yet.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@FredaDuan @SpaceX 30% retail + a sub-4% float + forced index buying weeks later is a setup where retail buys the top tick into a squeeze. Worth knowing too: the valuation now carries xAI's compute — the part financed off the balance sheet.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@DeItaone Maybe long term. But you're paying ~94x sales on a ~$4.9B annual loss, and Morningstar's fair value is ~$780B — roughly half the offer price. "Buy and hold" at a 48% premium to fair value is a different bet than "buy a great company

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@Han_Akamatsu That number leans on indexes that haven't included it yet. S&P denied fast-track on June 4 — that tranche is 2027. Near-term is Nasdaq-100 (~$7–8B) + Russell, and it hits ~July 6, not day one. Plus it's heavily front-run already.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

Largest IPO in history lists tomorrow. But S&P blocked fast index inclusion — the "wall of forced buying" is smaller and later than the hype says. Very few shares will actually trade, at a price ~48% above independent fair value. The squeeze cuts both ways. $SPCX

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@jenniferzeng97 The sharper read is Article 22 — Chinese entities in foreign litigation must clear state-secrets/data law before handing evidence to foreign courts. That's not closing off; it's a blocking statute. Beijing isn't withdrawing, it's taking a veto over disclosure and leverage.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@KingKong9888 The capital-flight read doesn't hold: China's outbound investment rose ~3.9% YoY this year. 837 isn't a wall to stop money leaving — it's a state screen on which tech and capital leave, with forced-unwind power attached. Control of kind, not of whether.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

Two superpowers, one move.
The US built a screen on money going INTO China. Now China's Decree 837 (live July 1) builds the mirror: a state veto on tech & capital going OUT.
The wall is rising from both sides at once. The cost lands on whoever's caught in the middle

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@Unveiled_ChinaX The legal test isn't what a company sells it's whether it has MIIT or SASAC links [Chinese government ministry ties]. Alibaba has both on record. Pentagon isn't confused. They're mapping military-civil fusion [China's strategy of using civilian firms for military purposes.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@MarioNawfal Routine updates don't get pulled by the White House before a presidential summit. This one was pulled twice. Same list, now back. Annual housekeeping doesn't work that way.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@wallstengine The 0.8% prices the wrong risk. June 30 is when US DoD contractor restrictions actually activate. June 2027 is when the indirect supply chain ban follows. Year one pricing on a year three event.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

Pentagon listed Alibaba, BYD & Baidu as China military companies — weeks after the Trump-Xi trade truce. Same list was pulled in Feb before the Beijing summit. Two US China strategies now competing in public. Watch what Trump does in the next 30 days.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

Most people make predictions all day — about markets, politics, tech — and never go back to check. I started tracking mine. 67% hit rate. Thought I'd be higher. The confidence bar is the part that humbles you.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@EricLDaugh Iran fired missiles at Israel for the first time since April 8. Israel struck back. Houthis warned of renewed Red Sea attacks. Brent jumped 5%. The ceasefire exists on paper only. The Strait of Hormuz is still functionally closed.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@mikemcglone11 Markets just priced a 70% chance of a rate HIKE in December. Cut expectations are dead. 172K jobs + 3.8% CPI + $97 oil = Warsh has zero cover to cut. The next move is up, not down

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@SoSoValueCrypto 172K headline looks great until you strip out 52K government jobs and 48K bartenders. Private durable-sector hiring is flat. The economy is adding waiters, not engineers. Headline vs substance — pick one.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

Three shocks in 72 hours: NFP crushed expectations (+172K), Iran-Israel exchanged missiles, oil spiked 5%.
Result? Warsh holds rates June 16. Dollar stays strong. Gold under pressure.
PRED-018 resolves in 8 days.
https://t.co/QkFYGol8DQ

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@HQNewsNow @AngieCraigMN Probably right. But what if China calculates that HMTX kills Section 301 anyway and waits instead of dealing? Then no concessions, no rollback, and Trump either enforces maximum tariffs or loses in court again. The market isn't pricing that binary.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@USTradeRep Tax Foundation has existing tariffs already costing the average US household ~$700 in 2026. These add more. The worker who benefits from the tariff pays for it at the grocery store. The protection and the cost hit the same person.

[Rubicon @RubiconIntel]

@WSJ Section 301 isn't IEEPA. It survived Trump's first term, Biden kept it, courts approved it for 6 years. The legal risk is HMTX cert — which isn't granted yet. Treating both tariff tools as equivalent is the mispricing.