aaron

trade thoughts daily
15 years of market abuse
rigid rules, flexible expectations

[aaron @runzki]

if $AAPL today is any indication,
megacap rebalancing into all the coming IPOs will be volatile, confusing and could result in increased sideline cash waiting for clarity / winners to emerge

[Ariel Hernandez @RealSimpleAriel]

A trillion in Capex spend for this!? $AAPL

I can't wait for Apple to introduce the revolutionary touchscreen MacBook Pro.

[aaron @runzki]

@d4ytrad3 ty

[aaron @runzki]

$AAPL that reversal is big deal.
ath into bearish engulfing
idk who or why
all we know is🚨

[aaron @runzki]

@ruth_capital @WatcherGuru jensen hwang building his own army of ai cubs

[aaron @runzki]

$AAPL someone freeing up some $ for $SPCX?

[aaron @runzki]

$AAPL that intraday reversal.
oh my
good number of players trapped near the top of that melt-up
"top heavy" reversal = prepare to sell the pops

[aaron @runzki]

@TheShortBear is jensen hwang the saylor of AI?

[aaron @runzki]

$OSCR good to see this one finally moving

tech stalling, oscr pumping
overbought can stay overbought imo

[aaron @runzki]

$OSCR showing accumulation off the bullish divergence bottom

currently coiling up at the 50 day ma resistance

earnings next week

[aaron @runzki]

$INTC nice bounce from early look
big picture, oversold dip aligned pretty well with the daily 50 ema (green)

[aaron @runzki]

$INTC interested for a day trade if support proves in the 107 area
all trades rn are subject to bigger picture uncertainty
beware bias

[aaron @runzki]

$SNDK low volume retracement 1700 area looks like a place holders would trim.

still holding small short from higher avg
missed the layup long bounce
now we see if seller sentiment returns

[aaron @runzki]

$SNDK 1670 resistance area on watch
possible intraday short area if the setup appears
if not, no fight

[aaron @runzki]

$INTC locked partial 110.7s

[aaron @runzki]

$INTC interested for a day trade if support proves in the 107 area
all trades rn are subject to bigger picture uncertainty
beware bias

[aaron @runzki]

$INTC interested for a day trade if support proves in the 107 area
all trades rn are subject to bigger picture uncertainty
beware bias

[aaron @runzki]

@Barchart Sndk monthly?

[aaron @runzki]

@DrJStrategy He literally called bitcoin rat poison

Munger chose wisely and btc, even down here, would never pass his sniff test

[aaron @runzki]

Excellent info

[EliteOptionsTrader @EliteOptions2]

I watched the markets for 16 years. They hid THIS from you:

1. The market doesn't move randomly. It moves to levels where the most money is trapped. Once you see it, you can't unsee it.

2. Your stop location isn't a secret. Institutions know exactly where retail places stops. They run them before the real move starts. That's not manipulation. That's just how liquidity works.

3. The best setups feel boring. If you're excited about a trade, your size is probably wrong.

4. Retail flow is now a real market force. When 10,000 traders are watching the same level on the same ticker, they move the market before they even enter. The crowded trade is the predictable trade. Predictable liquidity gets taken.

5. By the time you read a headline, an algorithm already traded it. You're never trading the news. You're trading the aftermath. And the aftermath is a completely different setup.

6. Support becomes resistance and resistance becomes support. The level that held price up last month is the same level that'll push it down this month. Most traders never use this.

7. The strongest levels on your chart aren't the ones you drew. They're the ones that caused the biggest reactions years ago and never got forgotten.

8. Withdrawing every week is a trading strategy. Seeing too much in your account changes how you size. It makes you feel invincible. The market will remind you that you're not.

9. Paper trading builds false confidence. The moment real money is involved, emotions change everything. Go real, go small, but go real.

10. The market rewards the trader who can do nothing better than the one who always has to do something.

11. Round numbers matter more than most traders think. $5,000. $6,000. $7,000. Institutions think in round numbers. So should you.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

$KORU

The casino just closed in Korea.
Memory stocks just killed their market.

A modern time mania.
$50 to $1300 in less than a year.

The worst part is its the second time in 3 months we have seen a -50% move within a week.

[aaron @runzki]

$SLV finally into the 200 day ema.

given the context of the dollar, rate expectations and eroding sentiment
i'll pass for now

[aaron @runzki]

fwiw, a gap down look for me is one that usually includes a 20-30% range retracement into the close

$SNDK

[aaron @runzki]

$AVGO took an extra day for the break. 395 and 375 are the first support areas

demand narrative still in tact but the market does what it wants

[aaron @runzki]

$AVGO
today could be the type of day where we blow thru support and watch holders exit into pops all day

i could be wrong
i usually play the 50 day for a bounce
but today has 'the feel'

not advice. know risk. follow your rules / process