Ruslan Bortnik

Director of Ukrainian Institute of Politics (think-tank). Interested in issues of geopolitics and globalization, peacekeeping. MA philosophy, BP politscience.

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

Переговоры между Украиной и РФ: стороны делают ставку на продолжение затяжной войны. https://t.co/EW6FbclFIe

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

Картонный Майдан Федорова. Новый Кабмин.Ракетная коалиция. Путин Трамп и... https://t.co/ExuIlYGkQ6 via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

ИИ уже убивает! Украина как полигоном войны будущего? Нейросеть стирает ... https://t.co/4LUg07bNtn via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

Перелом в войне? Почему Трамп меняет позицию, Крым под ударами, а Россия... https://t.co/p7inwSEUM8 via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

Трамп меняет правила! Тайные переговоры и судьба Украины. ЕС, фронт и Бе... https://t.co/frMLJK6klL via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

A symbolic meeting — or a historic conversation?

On June 17, a meeting between U.S. President @realDonaldTrump and French President @EmmanuelMacron is reportedly planned at the Palace of Versailles.

Much of the global press is focused on the format, protocol, and details of its preparation. But the real question is the substance.

Will this be just another discussion about tactical compromises across a complex set of economic and geopolitical problems? Or could it become a conversation about new, breakthrough ideas for building a better future for Europe and the world?

Europe does not need only crisis management. It needs strategic imagination.

Perhaps the deeper benchmark should not only be today’s agenda, but the spirit of the 1990 Paris Charter for a New Europe — a moment when leaders tried to overcome confrontation and design a new architecture of peace, security, and cooperation.

Could this meeting enter the history of encounters that changed the course of world affairs — like the Reagan-Gorbachev talks of 1986–1988?

Sincerely, I hope so.

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

Европа выдвинула ультиматум России? Трамп, Польша, фронт и новая реально... https://t.co/DesOy6CHnj via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

США уходят, Китай возвращается? Киев и Москва против США. Украино-венгер... https://t.co/pzC6e9JD5B via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

🌐🎙🗣The current dynamics of the peace process to resolve the war in Ukraine

🛑The peace process in Ukraine is still in a deadlock, primarily due to the lack of positive negotiation dynamics and any rapprochement of positions between the parties.

🛑The situation in the Middle East, of course, has its impact, acting as a distracting factor for the main mediator — the USA, reducing their focus and involvement in the Ukrainian negotiation track, but it is not the main reason for the stagnation of the process.

🛑The main reason is that Ukraine and Russia are not ready to make mutual concessions that could form the basis for an agreement. In these conditions, the USA is showing reduced interest in active communication, as there is no result that could be presented as a political achievement or a success for the American audience.

🛑By relying on the resources of the USA and Europe, Ukraine continues to work on the destruction of Russia's economic and military potential and restricting its access to international markets.

🛑Ukraine, however, will support the negotiation process. But the overall strategy for victory in the war has not changed and there is no review of it yet.

🛑Ukraine intends to continue the war and contain Moscow — to achieve a situation in which Russia will be weakened from within, and to achieve a military and political victory in a long and exhausting war.

🛑At the same time, Ukraine will wait for the completion of the US Congress elections and may then review its strategy, which remains unchanged for now.

🛑Putin may be ready for a temporary pause in the war in exchange for serious concessions — the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass or the provision of compensation mechanisms by the USA, including the possible recognition of part of the captured territories or the easing of sanctions. However, such decisions remain extremely difficult for Washington.

🛑Control over the Donetsk region is seen as a key political result of the war, which Moscow is striving to achieve before the fall. Russia is also oriented towards the results of the US elections, understanding that the possible strengthening of the Democrats in Congress could limit Trump's opportunities to implement a potential deal in the spirit of Anchorage.

🛑In the current situation, Russia intends to continue the war, even if it does not bring much result according to DeepState data, Russia managed to occupy only about 14 sq. km in May), as it allows through information policy to demonstrate to the domestic audience that the situation is developing in the right direction.

🛑In parallel, Moscow is negotiating with the USA, trying to achieve concessions on Ukraine. At the same time, any statements about the imminent end of the war are rather an element of internal propaganda and a demonstration of control over the situation than a real assessment of the situation.

🛑Given that the war remains an important factor for the American elections and for Putin's political future, while the resources of both sides are being exhausted, the risk of escalation scenarios and attempts to radically change the course of the war continues to increase.

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

Утро с Бортником: 04.06.2026 https://t.co/ljafpNTmIz

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

🌐🎙🗣A new wave of Russian strikes on Ukraine: the escalation of the war continues to intensify.

🛑The situation around Ukraine continues to escalate and intensify. On the night of June 2, Ukraine was again subjected to one of the largest Russian airstrikes. According to official data, Russia used 73 missiles and 656 drones of various types, of which 40 missiles and 602 drones were shot down. The most serious consequences were recorded in Kyiv and Dnipro.

🛑In Kyiv, 7 people were killed and another 58 were injured. The strikes affected almost all districts of the city, residential buildings, gas stations, construction sites and cars were damaged, as well as several medical institutions, and a polyclinic was partially destroyed. In Dnipro, 12 people were killed and another 33 were injured. In the city, multi-story buildings, enterprises, a fire station, garages and cars were damaged.
🛑Also, attacks were carried out in Zaporizhia, where at least 30 strikes on the city were recorded, Kharkiv, Sumy, where the residential sector was hit, and Chernihiv, where a private house in the central part of the city caught fire.

🛑As we can see, Moscow continues to carry out massive strikes on Ukraine and, in particular, on Kyiv, seeking to force embassies and international organizations to reduce their presence or evacuate, as well as to provoke Washington to increase pressure on Kyiv, at least on the issue of a partial withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass.

🛑It is indicative that shortly before the attack itself, a demonstrative meeting of the Russian Security Council under the chairmanship of V. Putin took place, where the further escalation was actually politically staged and announced. In the Russian information field, the latest strikes on Ukraine are presented, first and foremost, as a kind of "revenge dish", which should satisfy internal public demand.

🛑Against the backdrop that the situation on the front in the Donetsk region remains largely stalemated and a new balance of power is gradually forming, the risk of further escalation continues to increase. As neither side achieves its key political goals, the likelihood of possible steps aimed at drastically changing the situation - up to attempts to disrupt or radically change the logic of the negotiation process itself - is increasing.

🛑The goals of the war still remain unresolved, and the issues at stake are of existential importance both for states and for a significant part of political elites.

🛑As a result, the risks, threats and the overall danger of the situation not only for Ukraine and Russia, but also for international security as a whole continue to increase.

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

A New Phase in Relations between Ukraine and the European Union: Between Accession and Associate Integration https://t.co/JdfhBCUUjA

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

The War Is No Longer About Peace. Trump, China, Iran, Ukraine, Mindichga... https://t.co/OTSTl8ce05 via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

The Real Deal Behind the EU, NATO, Trump, and the Endless War. https://t.co/ZZUJzqPxEn via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

DoNRO Doctrine: from “Global Policeman” to “Global Soldier” https://t.co/C55WPM3CXl

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

The Deal to Continue the War: Who Profits, Who Pays, and Why Peace Is De... https://t.co/AmiWgzJGig via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

Нейтралитет, НАТО или вечная война? Эксперты США и Европы о территориаль... https://t.co/r9GrWvcKYC via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

Украина: проект «АНТИ» или страна ВЫЖИВАНИЯ? Апатия общества, демография... https://t.co/w49JvDK5KN via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

Hungary's Political Earthquake: What It Means for the EU, NATO & Ukraine? https://t.co/QiD23S2v6y via @YouTube

[Ruslan Bortnik @RuslanBortnik]

Режим «Крепость». Новый союз: Украина-Британия-Турция. Зачем в РФ блокир... https://t.co/HnffPp8sLi via @YouTube