Rust n Rumour

Charting the rumours before they hit the radar

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

While tanker rates are exploding from the Hormuz/ME chaos… The Offshore Vessel Market is already in such deep shit that the worst case doesn’t seem far away anymore.

A brutal wave of vessel terminations is coming. 50 vessels? Or 200? All Aramco, Adnoc & NOC contracts have “termination for convenience” clauses. Thread $TDW $SMHI #ShippingCrisis #OSV #ARAMCO #ADNOC #ADNOCLNS #QP #QE

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

@BowTiedLobster @IsZomg You are ignoring the fact that Adnoc are currently running, and will continue to increase the ship to ship trade, hence we should watch loadings outside Fujairah area more carefully

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

I have been counting more than 25 Adnoc cargoes going through Hormuz the last 30 days. Thats about 1 every day without being reported. None of it making the news, and you are still wondering why the oil is still in the 90s. Like always in the Middle East, deals are done behind closed doors

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

@AndersSjastad

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

Breaking: The United States has officially proposed renaming the Arabian Gulf to the Trump Gulf to end decades of disagreements between Persians and Arabs.

#TrumpGulf #PersianGulf #ArabianGulf

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

@ncitayim Unless it's called the Arabian Gulf Reconstruction fund neither UAE or Saudi will join 😅

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

26 vessels terminated in Abu Dhabi over the last 2 days.

Saudi market has not seen any terminations yet, but a lot of Rawabi Offshore vessels have been released and not extended on their rolling contracts.

Rawabi appears hardest hit in the region, with a big chunk of their fleet now idling.

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

Schrodinger’s Strait: neither open nor closed.

Both states coexist until a tanker transits — then the wave function collapses.Pure strategic ambiguity.

#hormuz

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

Vantage Drilling will be sold before the summer. My bet is that the guys in Eldorado Drilling will buy the platform and use it for further growth

@TommyDeepwater any thoughts?

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

QatarEnergy suspends offshore contracting

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

Rough conditions to load

[MyRadar Weather @MyRadarWX]

THURSDAY, March 26, 2026 will feature a rare desert tornado risk in the Middle East, including in Dubai, the UAE, northern Oman, Bahrain and Qatar. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms with wind and hail are likely.

Serious flooding – with up to a year's worth of rain – is expected as well. Widespread totals of 3-6 inches are likely, with locally greater amounts.

Dubai, for instance, averages 4 inches of rain annually. The opulent enclave could see 3 to 6 inches by the end of the week.

A similar event between April 15-17, 2024, dumped 6.45 inches of rain on Dubai International Airport, forcing the cancellation of more than 1,200 flights. Runways were left underwater.

There could also be an isolated rotating storm in southwestern Saudi Arabia near the shores of the Red Sea where greater moisture is present. That risk will include portions of Makkah, Al-Baha, Aseer and Jazan provinces, as well as northwestern Tamaha and Azal governorates in Yemen.

Farther inland, Najran province in southern Saudi Arabia could see an isolated haboob (dust storm) as thunderstorms exhale dry air exhaust and kick up dust.

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

@Amena__Bakr Handful or they have their hands full? https://t.co/D1UVLHhnDY

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

CONFIRMED: Qatar has suspended 19 offshore jackup drilling rigs.
Add Aramco's 54 suspended rigs, and the Gulf is now sitting on 73 idle jackups.

This is a massive demand-side shock to jackup utilisation

Is ADNOC next?

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

CONFIRMED: Qatar has suspended 19 offshore jackup drilling rigs.
Add Aramco's 54 suspended rigs, and the Gulf is now sitting on 73 idle jackups.

This is a massive demand-side shock to jackup utilisation

Is ADNOC next?

[The Saviour @TheSaviour]

This is a good one. 🤣

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

@60Minutes This is wrong on so many levels.

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

@CuriosityonX Short bitcoin

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

Sometimes the greatest geopolitical trade isn't a short or a hedge. It's a $20bn refinery and a $2.5bn fertiliser plant in Lagos that everyone called vanity projects.
#Hormuz #Dangote #Fertiliser #EnergyMarkets #OffshoreOil #geopolitics #nigeria #qatar #dubai #iran

[Rust n Rumour @Rust_and_Rumour]

The Hormuz crisis will eventually resolve. But the supply relationships being built right now — with US buyers, European agri-traders, Asian importers — those are structural. You don't unwind a supply chain just because the shooting stops.