Ryan Foster

Phenomenologist and Existential Philosopher. Ich habe dasein Dritte gemacht Thematischer Theoretischer Kenner der Welt. BA Philosophie Sein und Zeit Scholar

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

RIP FSD Beta: Oct 2020 - March 2024

Hello FSD (Supervised): March 2024 - ?

[MacroEdge @MacroEdgeRes]

Ford prices are collapsing.

“Freedom discount”

lol. Lmao even. #MacroEdge

[Beth Kindig @Beth_Kindig]

Bitcoin $BTC ETF inflows rose again this week as Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000 -- the BTC ETFs approved in January saw inflows of $1.2 billion through Wednesday.

$IBIT $FBTC $BITO

[Lex Fridman @lexfridman]

Here's my conversation with Annie Jacobsen (@anniejacobsen) all about nuclear war, CIA, Area 51, UFOs, and government secrecy. This was a terrifying and fascinating conversation.

It's here on X in full, and is up on YouTube, Spotify, and everywhere else. Links in comment.

Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
2:13 - Nuclear war
6:57 - Launch procedure
12:36 - Deterrence
16:09 - Tactical nukes
25:35 - Nuclear submarines
28:35 - Nuclear missiles
35:46 - Nuclear football
44:53 - Missile interceptor system
49:10 - North Korea
55:46 - Nuclear war scenarios
1:04:38 - Warmongers
1:09:06 - President's cognitive ability
1:15:19 - Refusing orders
1:23:17 - Russia and Putin
1:28:23 - Cyberattack
1:29:45 - Ground zero of nuclear war
1:34:24 - Surviving nuclear war
1:38:42 - Nuclear winter
1:49:05 - Alien civilizations
1:54:40 - Extrasensory perception
2:08:25 - Area 51
2:12:23 - UFOs and aliens
2:22:51 - Roswell incident
2:29:30 - CIA assassinations
2:48:23 - Navalny
2:50:48 - KGB
2:57:24 - Hitler and the atomic bomb
3:01:27 - War and human nature
3:04:53 - Hope

[Tech Savvy @harekrishna2025]

$GTLB .... Will be green by morning. So typical.

[Steve Hou @stevehou]

QQQ-equivalent liked the core PCE news for an hour and the stopped liking it, and now it really doesn't like whatever Powell might be saying.

[Steve Hou @stevehou]

Caption this

[Brandon Beylo @marketplunger1]

We are long GEN Restaurant Group $GENK.

During COVID, I pitched Kura Sushi $KRUS at ~$14/share. Today it trades at $120/share.

GENK is like KRUS, but better.

We believe it could be a 3-5 bagger in 3-5 years.

Please enjoy my write-up on the company.
https://t.co/BvrlRsK4oa

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Seeing a lot of X creators reporting revenue share payouts 2x higher than previous payout despite similar engagement numbers. Does this mean X has started paying out profile ad revenue share @elonmusk?

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

"Stronger for Longer" outlook to kick off '24 did well in Q1. As did the clear trades given it: 1) long stocks vs. bonds & 2) short dec24 sofr.

But the view ahead is pretty different. Stronger for longer is consensus, with much more uncertainty ahead.

https://t.co/gv35hP7oZC

[Steve Hou @stevehou]

Wealth inequality is disinflationary.

[Nicholas | Unusual Whales @NicholasFNS]

Hey; there are tons of resources, walkthroughs, definitions on the UW FAQ: https://t.co/M6glUbw2oz

Full walkthroughs of the site and basic education on the Edu page: https://t.co/A4r9ykC6tt

There are also educational videos on the UW YouTube channel, with more on the way: https://t.co/A6I89IekAD

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

🚨BREAKING🚨

I have just released the full report on politicians trading in 2023.

Like every year since 2020, US politicians beat the market.

And many in Congress made unusually timed trades resulting in huge gains.

Here are the top performers of 2023.

[Crossroads @Dr_Crossroads]

$PYPL

On PayPal's earnings, I'm still in and holding, but I was wrong going into Q4. Hugely wrong. Let's take a look.

THE GOOD

🟢 Q4

PayPal beat expectations for Q4 numbers.

- 8.03b vs 7.87b revenue.
- TPV 409b vs 403b.
- ADJ EPS $1.48 vs $1.36

Don't let anyone tell you Q4 numbers weren't good to great. They were. The initial reaction was +10% for a reason.

🟢Margins

This was the largest (pleasant) shock: gross margin inversion!

🟢 Transparency

As shareholders, we now have access to a significantly improved amount of data, from monthly active accounts to a breakdown between Venmo, cross-border, value-added services, the TPV mix, etc.

They're beginning to report non-GAAP EPS including SBC and payroll taxes.

The tone (while not what I would love) was sober and transparent.

This isn't insignificant. It's refreshing, and more data is always better for investors.

🟢 Expense Discipline

PayPal had 39bps of non-GAAP operating margin expansion and nonGAAP EPS +19%, driven by expense discipline

🟢Unbranded Growth and Remarks

PSP processing grew 30% Y/Y. I loved this quote by Chriss:

"We have really, I believe, one of the best products in the market for our merchants. We're seeing the highest conversion rates out there, and it's something that our merchants are looking for and looking to adopt."

THE NEUTRAL

🟡 Active Users

PayPal told us active users would decline. They did. However, they gave us the monthly active user data which is inflecting upwards and has been since Q1 2023. Active users might slide another quarter perhaps, but growth here is on the horizon as the subsidized accounts that have largely been inactive for 6-9 months churn off.

🟡 Buybacks

$5b in buybacks were issued last year. "At least" $5b are offered this year.

Many were hoping to see this number improved. FCF from Happy Returns and KKR spiked, and I don't see any plans in the guidance for the cash.

It's fine if they don't increase buybacks, but the cash should be employed to either improve growth (more on that next) or returning shareholder value.

🔴🔴🔴 2024 Guidance 🔴🔴🔴

This was not good. Not good at all.

In Q3 earnings, Alex Chriss said, "But let me be clear, notwithstanding those realities, this is a growth company with great prospects."

We don't expect an immediate turnaround, but let's look at this "growth company" for 2024's guidance.

And let's compare that with 2023:

See that $5.10 EPS figure in 2024? Yeah, that's what we had in 2023.

In other words, they are guiding for ZERO growth. Zero. That's $0.00 growth for the full year.

Why?

They gave some clarifications:

"First, for the time being, we intend to move away from providing annual revenue guidance and instead provide guidance for the upcoming quarter. "

Why would they do this?

"Given the considerable changes underway at the company, we believe it is prudent to guide revenue one quarter ahead and provide updates as the year progresses."

They also noted they are not baking into the cake anything from the new First Look initiatives until they see execution.

Fine. But here's the problem:

1⃣ You cannot, cannot, cannot call this a growth company one quarter, and guide for no growth for a year.

2⃣ You can choose to guide for a quarter only. That's fair. But do not give a slide that shows full year EPS at "in-line" / flat. Just show Q1, or give us realistic expectations.

3⃣ We need to know why that EPS figure is showing no gain. It makes zero sense in light of:

- Your macro expectations.
- Your phenomenal Q4.
- Your continued growth.
- Your buybacks.
- Your OpEx gains and the layoffs.

It just doesn't add up.

4⃣ When the bearish argument is that competition eats at margins and this company won't grow, you should have done the following:

A) Bang your chests a bit at the Q4 outperformance. Seriously, the margin inversion was a HUGE surprise that was discussed in Q3 and not guided for. Here, it was largely glossed over.

Talk about whether these margins are expected to improve over the year (not even Q/Q) or not.

B) Do not feed the bears. They say PayPal won't grow. Again, you can guide quarterly. That's fair. But you cannot give a slide that shows zero growth (unless that's really what you think will happen, which I don't think is the case here).

FINAL THOUGHTS

I am holding. I still think Chriss is the right man for the job and he has assembled a great team. I still think this is a growth story, near and far-term.

This is admittedly at odds with what they guided. I was COMPLETELY WRONG with what I was thinking they'd guide on. This is a significant miss on my part, and for that, I apologize.

I will wait, not adding, not selling, and see how they execute over the first half. I think the First Look products can make a significant difference in the trajectory of this company. It may take longer than I expected.

[Kevin @atomicalcapital]

Dino Polska ($DNP.WA) has grown at a 30% sales CAGR over the last decade.📈

Price has followed: It's a 10-bagger since the IPO

Is this a good time to take a position?
👇🧵

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

High-coke / high-leverage / low-fundamental-research environments are the source of all alpha.

[Beth Kindig @Beth_Kindig]

Amazon $AMZN is investing another $2.75 billion in Anthropic, adding to its initial $1.25 billion investment and marking its largest outside investment in its history.

$MSFT $NVDA $AMD $META

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$U had a rough 2023 with significant operational missteps by management, yet it maintained high-value customers contributing over $100K -- highlighting its product's value and the cost of switching for these clients.

Additionally, the Dollar Based Net Expansion Rate (DBNE), key for tracking growth, appears to have reached its lowest last quarter -- hinting at a potential rebound and recovery for Unity 🤔

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

The softest inflation print since before the pandemic in France!

Europe is heading for sub target inflation, while the opposite is happening in the US.

INFLATION DIVERGENCE.

More -> https://t.co/K5Ssshbio5

[Chris Perruna @cperruna]

Uncomfortable truth: there's only one party.

We have the illusion of a two party system.