Ryan Grace

Perspectives on options, vol, crypto, and markets. - Formerly tastytrade and tastylive - Building something new.

[Christopher Vecchio, CFA @CVecchioFX]

> be citadel
> circulate a note Fed week that a hike is coming
> if no hike, then its a big mistake
> Fed doesn't hike, market crashes and tanks semis
> buys SALP's book at a steep discount

impressive

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

Safe to get back in the water?

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS HAS EXITED ALL OF ITS PUBLIC EQUITY TRADES: CNBC

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

Volatility derived trading ranges and momentum signals for $BTC and a few others as we head into the weekend.

A bounce for bitcoin and ETH, but no change to the broader downtrend yet.

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

Oil's weekly price momentum has transitioned from bearish to neutral. - Slow moving, but often a good indicator of intermediate term price action.

$105 now in play.

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

When do we get the TACO?

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

bitcoin:native nearing the top of last week's expected move ~$66k.

At current spot and vol, weekly volatility derived trading range is now 63k-69.8k. (Higher-high vs prior week.)

Keep in mind BTC vol near multi-year lows.

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

Update:

$BTC momentum has flipped to bullish on the daily timeframe, but still within a bearish weekly and monthly trend.

We'd need a serious move higher into month end for those trends to reverse.

Until then... Eyeing 61k-66k trading range.

[Zack Voell @zackvoell]

Be greedy when others are fearful

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

MOU is dead. No surprise.

Watch Hyperliquid for an indication of where oil might open Sunday night.

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

@naumenko_roman Yeah, with current realized vol, could definitely get there.

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

Most of the names in $DRAM are now down -30% from ATH. Time to add?

My view is this is a secular bull. Expect 30-40% corrections along the way, but we're going higher still.

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

Eli Lilly acquiring AtaiBeckley.

$ATAI pipeline supercharged by $LLY AI.

Imagine... DMT + AI

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

@naumenko_roman What level gets you interested?

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

@TraderNickyBAT Sold some puts in DRAM today too.

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

Update:

$BTC momentum has flipped to bullish on the daily timeframe, but still within a bearish weekly and monthly trend.

We'd need a serious move higher into month end for those trends to reverse.

Until then... Eyeing 61k-66k trading range.

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

ETH price momentum flipped back to bullish yesterday. But, will it hold?

SOL signaled bullish on 7/1. BTC still neutral.

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

Need to see BTC above its 200d at $74k before we get all excited again.

Also:

ETH 200d = $2,210
SOL 200d = $91

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

ETH price momentum flipped back to bullish yesterday. But, will it hold?

SOL signaled bullish on 7/1. BTC still neutral.

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

Probably better trades than betting on a bounce in oil, but of course I can't help myself.

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

Oil > $70 by the end of August?

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

🎯

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Who could have possibly expected that a US-Iran MOU that was rushed to announce on Trump's birthday would have lacked that specifics and sufficiently mutual understanding that would have made it reliably durable, even during just the "60 day" nuclear negotiation phase?

[Ryan Grace @RyanFredGrace]

Compute, energy, crypto.

If it doesn't touch these themes, I don't want it in my portfolio.