Ryan Jacobs

author, THE TRUFFLE UNDERGROUND. senior director of content, Built In. former deputy editor, @PacificStand. alum: @TheAtlantic, @MotherJones, NU. barkeep.

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

Just wanted you guys to know that, during the pandemic, I busied myself by opening an English pub in my basement. It’s called Pelican Inn East.

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

unreal that the act of showing up with a whistle to protest against masked, paramilitary removals of innocent neighbors is being labeled by the administration as domestic terrorism, worthy of execution. America is fucking cooked. https://t.co/WdlTDUvC01 via @NYTimes

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

@darrenrovell this is the best resolution for all parties involved.

that said, this statement is a condition of the total settlement. I love Fitz and don’t think he knew or condoned the hazing, but this statement alone doesn’t prove/disprove anything but two lawyers coming to an agreement.

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

@DKThomp congrats dude. a truly epic run.

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

How can it possibly be true that we’re supposedly within reach of AGI but many people are still using Microsoft Outlook on the train

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

unbelievable

[The Atlantic @TheAtlantic]

American war planning usually takes place in highly secure facilities. But the Trump administration planned its strikes on the Houthis using a group chat—and accidentally included The Atlantic’s editor in chief, @JeffreyGoldberg. https://t.co/jvBzeJwEuy

[Shane Harris @shaneharris]

In 25 years of covering national security, I’ve never seen a story like this: Senior Trump officials discussed planning for the U.S. attack on the Houthis in a Signal group--and inadvertently added the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic. https://t.co/IQfcvZHqmW

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

someone give this man a White House press credential

[Dave Portnoy @stoolpresidente]

If I’m gonna be fair these questions needs to be asked today.

Why is the release of the Epstein list always a shit show?

What’s the point of booting out illegals and criminals while somehow becoming a safe haven for the Tate brothers?

Why is Crypto in the toilet if Trump is crypto king?

How far does Tsla stock have to crash before Elon goes back to work?

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

fun

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

Beer is cheaper than Diet Coke now. I don’t know if that’s good or bad honestly.

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

deepseek is v. good but are we really feeling so bullish on a tool that has stringent character limits?

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

chatgpt is asking me to clean data before i share it? that's why i'm using you, buddy

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

appointment reading by @derekedws: https://t.co/yGk6Fx9Kpf

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

lmao @DKThomp, a personal wine justification quest. don’t know if it has any basis in research or reality, but generally speaking, doctor friends seem much more concerned w/ liquor consumption vs. moderate beer & wine.

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

I spent a long, long time trying to answer a question that I really care about.

Is moderate drinking—say, 1 glass of wine a night (and, let's be honest, sometimes 2!)—"okay"?

Here's the article:

https://t.co/8jb6hvsHF2

4 things to emphasize:

1. The science is a total mess

The surgeon general wants new cancer warning labels on booze based on large meta-analyses. But wait: The National Academies also did a large meta-analysis and found moderate drinking is associated with longer lives. But wait: Many popular podcasts emphasize the risk of drinking *any* alcohol on cancer and brain matter shrinkage. But wait: Many other popular scientists point out that those studies are deeply flawed. Ahhh!!

2. Beware over-corrections in science

The 1990s conventional wisdom that moderate amounts of red wine were very good for your heart were (almost certainly) based on over-confident conclusions drawn from bad studies with improper comparisons between moderate drinkers (who are often healthy for reasons that have nothing to do with alcohol) and non-drinkers (who are often less healthy for reasons that have nothing to do with abstinence). We're smarter now. We've fixed this error. But now we're talking about slapping warnings on wine bottles about mouth and throat and breast cancer. And I'm worried we're throwing the same bad "fruit" into the "juicer" of health meta-analyses and calling it a perfect smoothie (to paragraphse @VPrasadMDMPH).

3. When evaluating health warnings, consider the difference between relative and absolute risk.

Even if you choose to take the new cautious CW seriously, the upshot is that moderate drinking only slightly increases the risk of some cancers from an low absolute number to another low absolute number. What might appear to be a large increase in relative risk—say, a 40% increase in oral cancers—is a very small increase in absolute risk, because oral cancer is so rare to begin with.

4. "Every drink of alcohol decreases your expected lifespan by five minutes"

*If* you choose to believe the new observational study meta-analyses (an important if! see point 1 above!) this is the all-cause mortality upshot. That sounds kinda bad. But as @euanashley and his team at Stanford have also calculated from observational studies, every minute of exercise *increases* your expected lifespan by five minutes!

So, there's your new longevity math: HAVE ONE DRINK; JOG FOR ONE MINUTE.

TLDR: I'm gonna keep enjoying my evening glass of pinot. Because, at the end of the day, I'm much more confident that I love wine and that it makes me happy that I'm confident that messy observational study meta-analyses should rule my life.

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

hey dads:

do you get weird, unexplained cuts on your hands? i was talking to another dad who has experienced the same phenomenon. I have three kids under 7.

what is this? distraction? calluses?

just some dad shit I guess.

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

is it just me or are wirecutter picks not reliable anymore? back in the day, shit used to be bulletproof. lately recommendations are flimsy.

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

amazing country we have https://t.co/dK4ZJKTzcj

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

"It was the only liquor to survive Prohibition because no one believed that a human being would drink that on purpose, and that it had to be medicinal" https://t.co/7rPBuJML6e

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

my “heavy ham does fall hard” reply got 46 likes. seems sus. what is the bot to maga ratio on here?

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

@apcbapcb heavy ham does fall hard

[Ryan Jacobs @Ryanj899]

The only legitimate hope for Democrats is @TheRock.