Ryan J. Marshall, CFP®, AIF®

My passion is to help clients achieve the great goals of life: education of ones children, a dignified retirement & the ability to leave a legacy for loved ones

[Ryan J. Marshall, CFP®, AIF® @RyanJMarshall]

Securities and advisory services offered through Cetera Advisor Networks LLC, member FINRA/SIPC, a broker/dealer and registered investment adviser. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

International equities (MSCI EAFE) have lagged US equities (S&P 500) on a rolling 3-year basis for 15 years. However, the EAFE index is catching up, outperforming the S&P 500 by 15% YTD. A weaker US dollar is a key factor in recent US underperformance.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

Tariff concerns triggered the biggest market selloff in 5 years. The S&P 500 dropped 4.84%, its sharpest decline since June 2020, while the Russell 2000 entered a bear market. Diversification is critical during periods of volatility and uncertainty.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

US auto sales rose by 3.3% last month to an annualized rate of 15.8 million. Sales have remained steady, but activity is below the 2018-19 pace of 17.1 million. Easing interest rates could potentially drive auto sales activity higher in the months ahead.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

The August JOLTS report shows a cooling labor market. Both the quits rate and hiring rate hit multi-year lows, indicating less turnover and hiring activity. However, companies are holding onto their workers, as the layoff rate remains at very low levels.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

Sector performance broadened in the 3rd quarter with 8 of 11 sectors outpacing the S&P 500, led by rate-sensitive sectors Utilities (+19.4%) and Real Estate (+17.2%). Tech and Communication Services led in the first half of the year, but they lagged in Q3.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

New home sales fell by 4.7% in August, but there’s a silver lining. The 3-month avg reached a 29-month high, and with declining mortgage rates, the housing market could see momentum building in the coming months as it recovers from a rolling recession.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

US retail sales rose 0.1% in August, beating expectations of a 0.2% decline. A 1.2% drop in gasoline sales from falling prices detracted from sales, but that was offset by a 1.4% rise in nonstore (online) retail sales.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

The ISM Service and Manufacturing PMI readings rose slightly last month, but the manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for 21 of the last 22 months. Meanwhile, service sector activity continues to drive the economy's positive trajectory.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

September has historically been a weak month for #stocks. Investor anxiety is high on the first trading day this year, with the S&P 500 down 2.12% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling 3.26%.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

Homeowners now hold a record $32.8 trillion in housing equity. As the Fed begins cutting interest rates, the borrowing costs for tapping into this equity will decrease. This is one way rate cuts could help stimulate the economy.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

The S&P 500 hasn’t traded below its 200-day moving average since last November. While momentum remains strong for equities, risks from Fed uncertainty, weak seasonality, and the upcoming election could lead to a re-test of the early August pullback low.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

An early look at the economy this month suggests moderating activity. The updated S&P Flash US Composite PMI for August shows accelerating services activity, while manufacturing contracted, leading to a slight pullback in the composite index.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

Initial jobless claims rose to 232K last week, up 4K from the prior week, while the 4-week average fell to 236K, down from 247K a year ago. Initial unemployment claims have trended lower since peaking this year at 250K in late July.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

High yield bond spreads didn’t break out during the recent surge in market volatility. With spreads remaining at relatively low levels, the credit market isn’t signaling near-term economic risk.

[Gene Goldman, CFA @GeneGoldman]

The markets say it’s a coin flip on whether the #Fed cuts 1/4 or 1/2 percent in September (see below). On the other hand, the Fed is pushing back on the 1/2 percent cut. Lots of data between now and September, however, I lean towards 1/4. Please watch video for more details.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

The 30-yr mortgage rate fell to a 15-month low of 6.55% last week, but mortgage purchase applications only increased by a narrow 0.8%. However, refinancing activity jumped 16%. We anticipate that mortgage activity will pick up as rates fall.

[Gene Goldman, CFA @GeneGoldman]

Great to see market gains today after yesterday's drop. But, disappointing to see equities close near the low of the day.

I still think a correction is likely for the S&P 500 and the key support level is the 200-day moving average (5016).

#Stocks #Stockmarket #SPX #SPX500

[Gene Goldman, CFA @GeneGoldman]

Don't believe the hype. 70% chance #Fed cuts 50bps in Sept. 2 data points last week raised recession fears, but overall data is still respectable (ex. unemployment rate just 4.3%). Markets trying to draw a conclusion from only 2 data points and we get many more before Sept. meeting.

[Cetera Investment Management @ceteraIM]

Stock market volatility is typical in most years. The average calendar year drawdown for the S&P 500 is -14% since 1980, despite finishing positive in 36 of the 44 years over this stretch. The stock market doesn’t go up in a straight line.

[Gene Goldman, CFA @GeneGoldman]

High valuations/high expectations/high concentration have increased risks. Disappointing earnings guidance & economic growth concerns hitting equities. A correction is likely.

Good news is that any correction should be short-lived and provide opportunities. Click to learn why.

#Fed #FridayVibes #StockMarket #Tech #Correction