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CFP Quarterfinal Predictions:
Cotton: Ohio State 23, Miami 14
Orange: Texas Tech 27, Oregon 24
Rose: Indiana 17, Alabama 10
Sugar: Georgia 38, Ole Miss 17
All the top four seeds win. They're in that position for a reason.
There's no need for playoff expansion. The reason there are so many "capable" teams is due to how large the conferences are and scheduling differences.
Smaller conferences/better scheduling would help this issue. The 2026 nine-game SEC schedule will assist with that.
If Notre Dame gets in, it should be on looking better and having a more impressive resume than Alabama.
But the Irish shouldn't get in over Miami. That ignores arguably one of the most important criteria the committee considers.
If Alabama gets into the playoff, it should be based on a resume that INCLUDES the loss yesterday.
What the committee CAN'T do is ignore the result of that game. If you do that, that's when you devalue the importance of a CCG, not the other way around. Every game counts.
Alabama had a case against Florida State. Texas didn't. But the committee decided to put both in because of the H2H.
Head-to-Head always mattered. It's the best way to decide which team is better on a football field. What's the point of playing the games if it doesn't matter?
Head-to-Head ALWAYS has mattered when the resumes are close. In fact, it was a key part of the controversial 2023 decision when Florida State was left out for Alabama and Texas...
How did the Longhorns earn the highest seed of the three?
Because they had an early season head-to-head win over Alabama. The committee honored that as the ultimate factor in its ranking. Without it, Alabama and FSU would've made it with Texas on the outside.
What my guess would be:
1. Indiana
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Texas Tech
5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas A&M
8. Oklahoma
9. Notre Dame
10. Alabama
11. Tulane
12. JMU
I think it would be a cop-out and set a few bad precedents, but it would also be easy for them justify.
@LO_Syracuse Seven teams have missed out on the CFP following a conference championship loss after being in the field the week before. It would be nothing new.
To stress it one more time, plenty of teams have moved out of the field due to CCG losses:
A. 2015 Iowa (12-0, No. 4)
B. 2017 Auburn (10-2, No. 2)
C. 2017 Wisconsin (12-0, No. 4)
D. Both 2018 and 2019 Georgia (11-1, No. 4)
E. 2022 USC (11-1, No. 4)
F: 2023 UGA (12-0, No. 1)
I cannot stress this enough: There is 0 chance Alabama misses the CFP. It would be a disastrous precedent to set for the committee and they won’t do it.
In 2008, No. 2 Florida beat No. 1 Alabama and later won the national title against Oklahoma.
In 2009. No. 2 Alabama took down Florida and beat Texas in the big game.
What do all three games have in common? The team at No. 2 eventually captured the national title.
No. 1 and No. 2 face off in a conference game for the first time since 2011! The last time that happened was when LSU took down Alabama in a 9-6 classic.
Historically, these games usually feature the eventual national champion or runner up (sometimes both)...
In 2011, LSU just beat Bama on a game-winning OT FG. The Crimson Tide later took down the Tigers in the national title game.
The two times before that were in back-to-back years in the SEC Championship Game in 2008 and 2009. Both times, Alabama and Florida faced off...