RyuanSong

#Bitcoin #Fianance #Crypto

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

Either way, the Clarity Act is what matters most.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

The emergence of artificial intelligence as a singularity has brought an overwhelming wave of unprecedented experiences.

The most significant shift is the collapse of information asymmetry. Data that was once incredibly difficult to find can now be accessed by anyone. Today, as long as a person has the willingness to learn, nothing in this world remains unknowable.

As time goes on, AI grows progressively smarter by devouring data. In essence, sheer quantity is beginning to consume humanity.
This is precisely why, I believe, the breakdown of conventional data has led to our current state of confusion. Viruses will inevitably compromise the big data we have always relied on, and we are bound to witness increasingly incomprehensible phenomena unless we evolve alongside AI.

Ultimately, a human-centric mindset will no longer propel us forward. We are nothing more than chickens; the only difference among us is the size of our stature.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

The $78k–$79k range was the average cost basis for Short-Term Holders (SOPR), which explains why Bitcoin faced resistance there for a while. Now that we’ve broken through to $80k, the SOPR has turned positive, meaning nearly everyone is in profit. It’s a fantastic way to kick off the month of May.

A major driver for this early May surge is the rapid drawdown of TGA balances, which is pumping fresh liquidity into the system.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

More than anything, global M2 YoY is the key metric. If you check the data, you can see that we are currently passing through a phase of relatively low liquidity. Because of that, a strong, explosive upside move isn’t really feasible right now. The important point, however, is that we haven’t fully moved past this phase yet it would be more accurate to say we’re approaching the end of it.

That’s why the current market doesn’t feel like a full “risk-on rally,” but rather something closer to a sudden shower after a long drought. Still, it’s encouraging to see some of the previously suppressed upward energy starting to emerge, particularly in altcoins.

At this stage, it seems the market is demonstrating that there is still upside momentum left in the crypto space (it moves easily when pushed). The key hurdle ahead will be whether the market can hold up through what we might call a “liquidity absorption valley” around mid-April.

Additionally, the U.S. Treasury’s TGA balance has already been refilled to its target level of $1000 billion, and liquidity is expected to be injected back into the market in May.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

This era’s collision of innovations blockchain and AI is pulling us into a new world.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

Bitcoin and Japan’s M2 money supply tend to move closely together, especially during downturns. In fact, Japanese capital is actively influencing the market. Japan remains the most conservative economy in the world, maintaining its stance of not cutting interest rates, which further amplifies this effect. When you view the market through this lens, it becomes clear that Japan’s interest rates and money supply play a significant role in Bitcoin’s behavior.

When analyzed alongside Bitcoin, the near-term outlook may not appear favorable. However, since this acts as a leading indicator, it may still be worth monitoring until we reach a potential expansion phase.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

Big shifts coming in April.
1.eSLR kicks in → banks can buy Treasuries → liquidity opens up.
More demand = yields down = money flows back into markets.
(eSLR + rate cuts + QE setup forming)

https://t.co/LyMRYVCGsV reducing short-term Treasury issuance (~81%).
After March, less issuance + possible TGA release → liquidity tap turning on.
Bullish for crypto.

3.Powell’s term ends May 15.
Kevin Warsh likely next → pro rate cuts → more market-friendly stance.

Clarity Act is delayed, but passage looks inevitable.
Path forward looks clear.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

“The United States has no choice but to bet on crypto.”

To understand the direction the U.S. is heading, you first need to understand stablecoins. As I’ve briefly mentioned before, stablecoins are backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries. This means that as stablecoins become more widely used, U.S. Treasuries are naturally sold in the process. Familiar names like USDT (Tether) and USDC are essentially "infused" with U.S. Treasuries. Since these are mandatory for buying crypto on exchanges, expanding the crypto market makes business incredibly easy for the U.S. There’s simply no reason for them not to do it.
We have reached a point where the dollar has been printed so excessively that it has hit its limit in its current form. The solution was simple: create a "new" dollar. The only difference is that this one was born within the digital realm.
Currency is inherently artificial, which gives it the advantage of being easy to control and the terrifying power of infinite supply. If someone appears who can print more and faster, it’s game over. The U.S. is the best in the world at this game. It was true in the past, and it remains true today—the DNA of a global hegemon doesn't just disappear. This is the real reason why the U.S. is claiming it will become the "Crypto Capital" of the world.
The Battle of Lineage: USDC vs. USDT
However, the stablecoin market is a messy mix of "pure-blooded" U.S. coins and those that are not.
• USDC: Represents the representative U.S. pure-blood stablecoin.
• USDT: To put it simply, its lineage traces back to China.
If you keep this in mind while looking at the market cap growth comparison between these two, you can understand why USDC’s growth rate is so overwhelming. In fact, USDC has already secured its position as the primary payment method for AI transactions.
This is why the U.S. is moving so desperately to dominate both AI and stablecoins. Given this context, the growth of this sector seems inevitable. At the very least, seeing this has given me certainty.
Conclusion: Revolution and Innovation
The birth of Bitcoin as "digital gold" opened the gateway for everything in the world to enter the digital space, and the emergence of stablecoins allowed the U.S. to step in and take over the board.

Bitcoin was the revolution; stablecoins are the innovation. I believe the U.S. has already designed this entire "grand architecture" from the very beginning to hold both in its hands.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

A Surprisingly Plausible Story

Before the attack, Iran was a country where it was possible to mine one Bitcoin for only about $1,300 almost like a form of modern-day alchemy. From the perspective of the United States, this could easily be seen as a threat, because the selling pressure from cheaply mined Bitcoin had the potential to weigh on the market.

At first glance, this may resemble China’s mining ban, but the outcome is fundamentally different. After China banned mining, miners simply relocated their operations to places like Kazakhstan, beyond the direct reach of Chinese authorities. As a result, the United States could not completely eliminate the selling pressure from those miners. What the ban did achieve, however, was stopping a flood of “Chinese alchemy” Bitcoin mined with extremely cheap electricity from continuing to pour into the market.

An attack on Iran, however, could erase that selling pressure entirely. In order to cut off the electricity, the United States made the decision to launch missiles. In the ongoing struggle over Bitcoin’s global share, the U.S. once again managed to maintain its position.

A country that can simply eliminate obstacles when they stand in its way that is the United States. And within that story, ultimately, there was Bitcoin.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

Led by Circle, crypto related stocks have successfully rebounded across the board, signaling a gradual return of vitality to the market. Similarly, Bitcoin is increasingly leaning toward the upside rather than the downside, allowing us to participate in a rally we haven't seen in quite a while. Additionally, the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has dropped to $859B, effectively injecting much-needed liquidity into the market.

However, we are still in the process of emerging from a short-term liquidity crunch. Considering we are currently passing through U.S. Treasury settlement dates, it remains necessary to monitor the market with caution until oil prices stabilize.

In other news, Kraken has become the first crypto firm to gain access to the Federal Reserve's payment system. Despite strong opposition from the banking sector, the immediate implementation of this policy reveals a clear intent to drive the crypto market forward. Furthermore, the White House is signaling a sense of urgency regarding the Clarity Act, strongly suggesting that banks should compromise to expedite its execution.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

As the KOSPI surges toward 6,000, long-term Korean whales who can no longer resist the FOMO are starting to sell off their coins one by one through Upbit and move their capital back into the stock market.

Upbit deposit volumes are now showing increases exceeding 500% compared to previous levels, reaching a clearly dangerous zone. (Focusing on major coins: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana)

Korean money has been one of the key fuels driving the crypto market, but with the coin market repeatedly posting far worse performance than other asset classes, that major source of liquidity is disappearing. It looks like Bitcoin’s recovery will take even longer than expected.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

When looking at Bitcoin on a year-by-year basis, its pattern of rises and declines had been fairly consistent. However, the 2025 market unfolded differently than expected (in my view, it was delayed), and with the year closing in a bearish candle, that pattern was effectively broken. This is now something widely recognized.

What I want to emphasize is that, rather than focusing on how much further the downside might extend, it is statistically more meaningful to assess what kind of level we are currently at. And in my view, this is a very ideal zone.

As investors, it is more effective to avoid widely shared wrong answers than to search for a perfect one. Reducing risk as much as possible is the most rational approach, which is why I wanted to share this perspective.

At present, the market has effectively reverted to 2021 levels, which clearly means that risk has been significantly reduced.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

Additionally, when viewed on a weekly timeframe, the RSI a technical indicator known for its reliability suggests that the current zone is indeed attractive.

Looking specifically at the weekly RSI, whenever the reading has fallen below 30 into the high-20s range, a rally has consistently followed. Historical data shows that this exact setup has appeared three times before, and each time it was followed by an upward move. We are now passing through that same phase once again.

Therefore, for newly entering smart money, it is natural to view this level as an opportunity the kind of zone where those who know how to make money begin to pay attention. For participants already stuck in positions, this can be seen technically as a level that has historically produced rebounds.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

U.S. Treasury Securities Settlement Dates – February 2026

**February 17, 2026 (Tuesday)**
- 3-Year Note
- 10-Year Note
- 30-Year Bond
- 17-Week Bill
- 4-Week Bill
- 8-Week Bill

*(Note: Some auctions were adjusted due to Presidents' Day holiday on Monday, February 16, 2026.)*

**February 19, 2026 (Thursday)**
- 6-Week Bill
- 13-Week Bill
- 26-Week Bill
- 52-Week Bill

It looks like we should be cautious this week, as there are large-scale U.S. Treasury settlements scheduled for the 17th and 19th. Since significant liquidity will be drained twice in a single week, it’s wiser to stay vigilant and monitor the situation.
In the past, Bitcoin took a major hit when option expiries overlapped with treasury settlement dates. It would be best to re-evaluate the market once this period passes.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

I believe the simple formula **Psychology + Liquidity = Price** perfectly explains the current market.

The US Treasury General Account (TGA) is an extremely important liquidity indicator. To elaborate: when we look at TGA balances on a year-over-year basis, Bitcoin has **never** had a good run not even once any time the balance exceeded $900 billion. That’s why the moments when we were in the most pain (i.e., the absolute best buying opportunities) coincided exactly with TGA climbing above $900B. And that is precisely the phase we’re in right now.

The reason the market feels bad is straightforward: money is simply playing elsewhere. Almost all of it is getting sucked into AI infrastructure. The AI sector is currently white-hot burning with such intensity that it could completely flip the landscape. This phase may pass relatively quickly, but for the moment, it’s accurate to say AI is killing Bitcoin.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

A thought just crossed my mind.

Recently, an incident occurred at Bithumb on the Korea Exchange where approximately 60 trillion KRW worth of Bitcoin was mistakenly deposited. As a result, the price of Bitcoin on Bithumb plunged to around 80 million KRW, triggering an explosive surge in trading volume on the platform. It was an event massive enough to remind people of the “martial law beam” moment during Korea’s 2024 presidential period.

But it raises a question was displaying 2,000 KRW as 2,000 BTC really just a simple mistake?

Why? Because in the end, this incident allowed Bithumb to generate substantial profit.

Whether it was intentional or an error is impossible to know but we can clearly see who ultimately benefited the most.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

Watching the Bitcoin mining infrastructure undergo such a massive shift with small to mid-sized farms pivoting into AI data centers it’s hard to ignore the feeling that Bitcoin is increasingly becoming "Made in the USA." This is largely because new players are aggressively absorbing the supply dumped by these struggling miners.
Ultimately, this "changing of the guard" will likely play a positive role in maturing Bitcoin as a global asset class.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

More important than debating whether Kevin Warsh, as the next Fed chair, is a hawkish figure is the fact that he is Jewish. What is striking is that every Jewish Fed chair in history has supported quantitative easing (monetary expansion). Jerome Powell, by contrast, is not Jewish.

It is clear that the pieces of the puzzle are gradually coming together, yet it is price action in the asset markets alone that continues to raise doubts for investors. One could reasonably say that the situation itself is unusual. Asset prices are bound to rise, but as the U.S. pursues its own objectives, volatility is increasing rather than subsiding.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

@patrickjwitt Finance are going forward. Good movement.

[RyuanSong @RyuanSong]

I did not anticipate that the crypto market would collapse to this extent, nor did I expect the cycle to be delayed as much as it has been.
As a result, I have also suffered various losses. However, my view that the crypto market still holds ample upside energy remains unchanged.

The environment may become noisy and chaotic at times, but the fundamentals are difficult to alter.
Is it really harder for Bitcoin to rise than to fall, given that it is an asset with a fixed supply?
Ultimately, asset value is determined by supply and demand.

Even as OG whales and miners distribute their holdings into the market, there are forces absorbing that supply.
In other words, the liquidity is being fully taken in they are simply creating conditions to accumulate at lower prices.

Bitcoin was born with a hard supply cap. Demand, by its nature, continues to grow.
The spark will ignite on its own.

While positive factors are clearly accumulating, the timing continues to be pushed back.
In times of uncertainty, it may be worthwhile to once again reflect on the true value and significance of Bitcoin.