Salvatore Stanizzi

PhD Researcher | Former Visiting Researcher at LBS | AI Governance, Law & Public Policy | Journalist | Often on @FocusAmerica_it | Politics & Power

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

Hahaha, I know exactly what you mean! 😂

After spending days refreshing election results every five minutes, a whole weekend without new numbers feels like torture!

Hang in there until Monday! I’ll keep following every update, and the moment something changes, you’ll hear about it.

Thanks for following along! Really appreciate it!

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

🚨🇺🇸 #MISSISSIPPI #SENATE – COLOM’S LEAD KEEPS CLIMBING: NOW 2,734 VOTES!

🔵 Scott #Colom: 468,308 (49.09%)
🔴 Cindy #Hyde-#Smith: 465,574 (48.81%)

📊 Colom now leads by 2,734 votes!

🔢 Compared with the previous update:

🔵 Colom: +257 votes
🔴 Hyde-Smith: +153 votes
🟣 Pinkins: +6 votes

📈 Net gain for Colom: +104 votes!

📌 The latest update adds 416 votes statewide:

🔵 Colom: 61.8%
🔴 Hyde-Smith: 36.8%
🟣 Pinkins: 1.4%

👉🏻 In just two consecutive updates, Colom’s lead has grown from 2,572 to 2,734 votes!

🌊 Batch after batch, vote after vote, Mississippi is moving toward a potentially historic electoral outcome.

#MSSen #Midterms2026 #Election2026 #Mississippi #USSenate #ElectionResults #ScottColom #HydeSmith #BlueWave2026

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

@Hunter_Haney75 It was actually 110 votes, including 10 for Pinkins. That said, I’m pretty confident Colom will win. My predictive estimate puts his chances of victory at 98%

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

@TeamTalaricoHQ @AntFuniciello al “I’m so glad you got my father’s job” non ho potuto fare a meno di pensare alla nostra conversazione del 2020, sia di persona che nel podcast!

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

You called it, Lindsey.

Ten years ago, you warned that nominating Donald Trump would destroy the Republican Party, and that Republicans would deserve it.

I just can’t believe it took this long.

The irony is that, in the years that followed, you became one of Trump’s staunchest allies, defending the very man whose rise you had once predicted would bring your party to its knees.

And then came the cruelest twist of all: after your death, your sister Darline inherited the Senate seat you had held for more than twenty years, only to lose it to Democrat Annie Andrews in one of the most historic political upsets South Carolina and American politics have ever witnessed.

You never got to see any of this, Lindsey, but in the end, it happened exactly as you predicted.

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

🚨🇺🇸 #ALASKA & #MISSISSIPPI – WHY HAVEN’T THESE #SENATE RACES BEEN CALLED YET?

Two Senate races remain unresolved, but for very different reasons.

📍 #ALASKA – #PELTOLA vs. #SULLIVAN

Outstanding absentee, questioned and overseas ballots could change the first-choice totals. If nobody crosses 50%, ranked-choice voting will determine the winner.

📅 KEY DATES
🔴 November 10 – Scheduled results update.
🔴 November 13 – Domestic absentee ballot deadline.
🔴 November 18 – Overseas absentee deadline and scheduled ranked-choice tabulation.
🔴 November 25 – Target certification date.

📍 #MISSISSIPPI – #COLOM vs. #HYDE-#SMITH

👉🏻 Colom currently leads by 2,696 votes.

But Mississippi lacks a centralized statewide count of outstanding ballots. #HindsCounty and the geographic distribution of remaining votes are crucial.

📅 KEY DATES
🔴 November 10 – Relevant absentee and affidavit ballot deadlines.
🔴 November 13 – County certification deadline.

📊 MY PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENT

Based on my latest personal assessment of the outstanding vote and the electoral dynamics:

🔵 Scott Colom – 98% chance of victory

🔵 Mary Peltola – 90% chance of victory

These are my own estimates, not official forecasts. They remain subject to revision as new results arrive.

🎯 WHEN WOULD I CALL THEM?

In Mississippi, I would consider a call once the outstanding county-level ballots can no longer plausibly overturn Colom’s lead. And i think we’re closer.

In Alaska, I would assess the November 10 and 13 updates alongside the available ranked-choice transfer data, without necessarily waiting for November 18 if the outcome becomes mathematically clear.

👉🏻 The question isn’t when every ballot will be counted, it’s when the remaining ballots can no longer change the winner.

#AKSen #MSSen #Midterms2026 #Election2026 #USSenate #MaryPeltola #ScottColom #ElectionResults

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

🚨🇺🇸 #MISSISSIPPI #SENATE – HYDE-SMITH MAKES SMALL GAINS, BUT COLOM MAINTAINS HIS LEAD!

🔵 Scott #Colom: 468,339 (49.09%)
🔴 Cindy #Hyde-#Smith: 465,643 (48.81%)

📊 Colom leads by 2,696 votes.

🔢 Since my previous update:

🔵 Colom: +31
🔴 Hyde-Smith: +69

📉 The #Republican gains 38 votes on the #Democrat in the latest batch.

📌 The focus now shifts to outstanding absentee and affidavit ballots, particularly in Hinds County, which includes Jackson.

👉🏻 Hinds County did not release new results Friday evening and does not anticipate making a race call before next week at the earliest.

❓The crucial unanswered question remains how many ballots are still outstanding across Mississippi’s 82 counties.

🗳️ According to AP’s latest estimate, approximately 30,000 ballots were still outstanding as of Friday afternoon.

🎯 Every new batch matters, but the geography of the remaining vote matters just as much.

#MSSen #Midterms2026 #Election2026 #Mississippi #USSenate #ElectionResults #ScottColom #HydeSmith #ElectionDay #ElectionDay2026

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

@svergarai141 According to AP’s latest estimate, approximately 30,000 ballots were still outstanding as of Friday afternoon.

However, the exact number remains uncertain because Mississippi doesn’t have a centralized system for tracking uncounted ballots across its 82 counties.

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

🚨🇺🇸 #MISSISSIPPI #SENATE – COLOM’S LEAD GROWS AGAIN, NOW ABOVE 2,600 VOTES!

🔵 Scott #Colom: 468,051 (49.09%)
🔴 Cindy #Hyde-#Smith: 465,421 (48.81%)

📊 Colom now leads by 2,630 votes!

🔢 Compared with the previous DDHQ update:

🔵 Colom: +81 votes
🔴 Hyde-Smith: +23 votes

📈 Net gain for Colom: +58 votes!

📌 The latest batch adds 105 votes statewide, with Colom receiving 77.1% and Hyde-Smith 21.9%.

👉🏻 Colom’s lead has increased from 2,572 to 2,630 votes.

🌊 With every new batch, Colom is turning what once seemed politically impossible into something increasingly tangible. Mississippi is witnessing a moment that could redefine its electoral history!

#MSSen #Midterms2026 #Election2026 #Mississippi #USSenate #ElectionResults #ScottColom #HydeSmith #MississippiSenate #ElectionDay

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

@Hunter_Haney75 Correct! I’ve added another post with an update. Thanks for sharing!

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

@kobiasjr I’m following Decision Desk for my updates.

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

🚨🇺🇸 #MISSISSIPPI #SENATE – COLOM’S LEAD SURGES PAST 2,500 VOTES!

🔵 Scott #Colom: 467,970 (49.08%)
🔴 Cindy #Hyde-#Smith: 465,398 (48.81%)

📊 Colom now leads by 2,572 votes!

🔢 Compared with the previous update:

🔵 Colom: +670 votes
🔴 Hyde-Smith: +205 votes

📈 Net gain for Colom: +465 votes!

📌 The latest update adds 885 votes statewide:

🔵 Colom: 75.7%
🔴 Hyde-Smith: 23.2%

👉🏻 Colom’s lead has jumped from 2,107 to 2,572 votes in a single update!

📊 The latest batch has significantly strengthened Colom’s position in this extraordinarily close race, which is now approaching its conclusion!

#MSSen #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay #Election2026 #Senate #Democrat #Republican

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

🚨🇺🇸 I’ve seen enough: Cindy #HydeSmith has just a 2% chance of winning the #Mississippi Senate race, according to my assessment.

🔵 Scott #Colom is going to win.

📊 The next batch of votes could be the decisive one!

#MSSen #MississippiSenate #Midterms2026 #Election2026 #ElectionDay #USSenate #Senate2026 #BlueWave2026 #Democrats #Republicans #MississippiPolitics #ScottColom

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

🚨🇺🇸 #MISSISSIPPI #SENATE – EVERY VOTE COUNTS: COLOM'S LEAD GROWS AGAIN!

🔵 Scott #Colom: 467,300 (49.06%)
🔴 Cindy #Hyde-#Smith: 465,193 (48.84%)

📊 Colom now leads by 2,107 votes!

🔢 Compared with the previous update:

🔵 Colom: +67 votes
🔴 Hyde-Smith: +47 votes

📈 Net gain for Colom: +20 votes.

📌 The latest batch adds 117 votes statewide, with Colom receiving 57.3% and Hyde-Smith 40.2%.

👉🏻 The #Democratic candidate’s lead has increased from 2,087 to 2,107 votes.

🌊 #Mississippi is getting closer to a historic moment!

#MSSen #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay #Election2026 #Senate #Democrat #Republican

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

@Nelson91933963 My pleasure! Feel free to reach out, always happy!

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

🚨🇺🇸 #MISSISSIPPI #SENATE – WHY AP AND DECISION DESK HQ SHOW DIFFERENT NUMBERS

There’s some confusion over the latest Mississippi Senate results, so let me clarify.

📊 Associated Press / New York Times:
🔵 #Colom: 466,959 (49.05%)
🔴 #Hyde-#Smith: 465,023 (48.85%)
➡️ Colom +1,936

📊 Decision Desk HQ:
🔵 Colom: 467,233 (49.06%)
🔴 Hyde-Smith: 465,146 (48.84%)
➡️ Colom +2,087

The latest AP update includes 248 votes from Bolivar County, where Colom gained a net 123 votes.

I had already accounted for that batch in my previous update using DDHQ figures.

So this is NOT a new 123-vote gain on top of the margin I previously reported.

AP and DDHQ are reporting different vote totals because their reporting and update timelines differ.

📌 The key point: don’t confuse a provider catching up with an actual change in the race.

#MSSen #Midterms2026 #ElectionDay
#Election2026 #Senate #Democrat #Republican

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

Yes, I’m aware of the DeSoto and Rankin County updates. I primarily follow Decision Desk HQ, which already reports Colom ahead by 2,087 votes.

My post was simply meant to clarify the difference between DDHQ’s figures and those reported by AP and the New York Times.

I wasn’t treating the latest AP batch as an additional gain. I was explaining why the two reporting systems currently show different statewide margins.

The precise county-level differences between the two datasets still need to be reconciled.

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

Exactly! CNN relies on Associated Press election data, which explains why their numbers match.

Decision Desk HQ, however, operates its own independent election data collection and reporting system rather than simply reproducing AP’s figures.

Both organizations collect and verify results through their respective reporting networks, but they don’t necessarily receive, process, or publish county-level updates at the same time.

That’s why DDHQ can incorporate certain batches before AP, or vice versa, resulting in temporary differences in statewide totals and margins.

It’s not necessarily a contradiction or an error. It’s simply the result of two independent vote-reporting operations working on different timelines.

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

@JooVicentemyoy Yes! As soon as a candidate receives more than 50% of the active votes in any round, they win outright. There’s no need for any further rounds of ranked-choice tabulation.

[Salvatore Stanizzi @SalStanizzi]

🚨🇺🇸 #ALASKA #SENATE – THE NUMBERS THAT COULD TURN ALASKA BLUE: MY ANALYSIS!

I’ve analyzed early and absentee returns across Anchorage’s House Districts and compared my calculations with the New York Times’ ranked-choice analysis.

📊 ANCHORAGE: MY DISTRICT-LEVEL FINDINGS

🔵 #Peltola: 15,726 (64.9%)
🔴 #Sullivan: 8,504 (35.1%)

Peltola leads this two-candidate sample by 7,222 votes.

Approximately 30,700 Anchorage ballots were outstanding in my earlier calculations.

If those ballots split:

• 52–48 → Peltola gains 1,228 votes.
• 55–45 → +3,070.
• 60–40 → +6,140.
• 65–35 → +9,210.

These are scenarios, not forecasts.

📊 ROUND 1 — FIRST-CHOICE COUNT

In the snapshot, Peltola leads by 637 votes.

Adding only the #Anchorage scenarios:

🔵 52–48 → Lead of 1,865.
🔵 55–45 → Lead of 3,707.
🔵 60–40 → Lead of 6,777.
🔵 65–35 → Lead of 9,847.

Other outstanding ballots are excluded.

📊 ROUND 2 — SULLIVAN JR. TRANSFERS

Among his first-choice voters:

🔵 29% ranked Peltola second.
🔴 16% ranked Sen. Sullivan second.
⚪ 36% left their second choice blank.

📊 ROUND 3 — #HEIKES TRANSFERS

🔴 36% ranked Sullivan second.
🔵 12% ranked Peltola second.
⚪ 37% left their second choice blank.

The #NYT estimates Sullivan’s overall ranked-choice advantage at just 0.4 percentage points on the ballots analyzed.

📊 FINAL ROUND — PELTOLA’S PATH

Using a preliminary 860-vote net transfer advantage for Sullivan as an illustrative benchmark:

🔵 52–48 scenario → Peltola +1,005.
🔵 55–45 → +2,847.
🔵 60–40 → +5,917.
🔵 65–35 → +8,987.

These are conditional margins, not win probabilities. The final transfer advantage may differ.

🎯 THE KEY QUESTION

Can Peltola build a first-choice lead larger than Sullivan’s eventual ranked-choice gains?

My Anchorage calculations show how outstanding ballots could change the race. The NYT’s analysis shows why Republican minor-candidate votes cannot simply be counted as future Sullivan votes.

👉🏻 The uncounted vote determines the starting margin, ranked-choice transfers determine whether it holds.

#AKSen #Alaska #MaryPeltola #DanSullivan #Anchorage #RankedChoiceVoting #RCV #Midterms2026 #Election2026 #USSenate #ElectionResults #AlaskaPolitics #ElectionAnalysis #Senate2026