Sam Abrika

Contrarian - Founder - Thinker

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

1/Everyone in finance is using LLMs.

But no one can explain what’s actually happening under the hood.

What allows this thing to generate coherent answers to questions it’s never seen before?
🧵

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

@boardyai Boardy Pro

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

7. In other words, LLMs will bias you towards more beta.

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

1. You believe LLMs are neutral like a Google search? Time to talk about "RLHF" 😏
Every response you get has been shaped by Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). After pretraining, LLM models are shown multiple output variations.

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

6. Ask about inflation hedging strategies, and LLM will favor vanilla instruments (TIPS, gold, REITs) over more aggressive plays like shorting duration or going long commodities futures.

Even when market conditions scream for it.

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

7/ So LLMs are just absurdly well-trained statistical pattern recognizers.

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

1/Everyone in finance is using LLMs.

But no one can explain what’s actually happening under the hood.

What allows this thing to generate coherent answers to questions it’s never seen before?
🧵

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

6/ It also learns that certain sentence structures tend to follow certain forms.

So it guesses, one token at a time, what fits best based on learned patterns.

What it lacks:

- No concept of ground truth
- No economic theory
- No mental model of cause and effect

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

@betterspender That's true, happy to connect

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

Asking random Londoners how much a Financial Planner charges.

[Daniel @growing_daniel]

This graph is crazy

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

The only addiction compatible with increasing your net worth is being a workaholic.

With these words, I wish you a good weekend.

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

6/ So next time you check your bank balance, remember: Don't just look at the number.

Consider your future cash flows, and plan your spending accordingly 💰👍
#personalfinance #forecasting

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

1/ Why does payday feel like a celebration but month-end seem like a harsh reality check? It's because look at today's snapshot of their finances instead of looking at what's ahead.

[Sam Abrika @SamAbrika]

5/ The problem with most banking or budgeting apps? They're stuck in the past. They show you what you spent last month - that's 'backward-looking'.

And budgeting based past data points is a recipe for disaster 💣