This are the fundamentals driving the surge-
Total foreign exchange (FX) market turnover in Nigeria surged to $52.47 billion in the first half (H1) of 2025, representing a 262.4% increase compared to $14.48 billion in the preceding half-year (H2 2024).
Average monthly FX turnover in 2025 rose to $8.6 billion from $5.5 billion in 2024.
The data also shows that FX sales rose to $4.74 billion, while FX purchases stood at $3.97 billion, resulting in net sales of $0.77 billion during the period.
In August 2025, foreign reserves was $41 billion, less than 6 months , we have added $5 billion.
This is beyond oil. Truly Nigeria has been able to diversify its foreign exchange earnings and inflow.
Finally, Naira is still significantly undervalued.
Naira’s value today is reflective on revenue deficit than forex inflow and management.
The more barrels of oil we pump, the stronger Naira becomes, not necessarily because of more forex inflow but because of the fiscal space ( improved revenue) it makes available to strengthen Naira.
“Truly, Nigeria has been able to diversify its foreign exchange earnings and inflows.”
Seriously?
This is happy talk; it makes you feel good
1. Go to the NBS and CBN macroeconomic report for 2026; the GDP growth and earnings are from oil. Q3 shows a fall in oil, yet oil GDP is the driver; non-oil is flat.
2. Go to the NBS trade report, look at oil and non-oil earnings, and the non-oil FX receivable is abysmal. Cocoa is our #1 earning from non-oil FX; is it up to $1b?
3. The surge in non-oil earnings is from counting entities such as Eleme Petrochemicals as non-oil earnings. How can “petrochemical” be non-oil?
4. Back to the FX reserves, where is it coming from? Exports? No. Oil output is still flat at below 1.5 mbpd. Go to the CBN Quarterly report; you will see capital flows, FDI, and FPI. The bulk of fx entering Nigeria today is short-term FPI. Foreign Direct Investment FDI has collapsed in the last 48 months
5. 2025 half year, only N10t revenues, why? Unsold oil cargoes, falling oil prices. If fx revenues are diversified, why didn't the non-oil cover? The President said “no more borrowing”, then proceeded to borrow
For your information, debt servicing to revenue HY2025 was 72%. Yet you say fx earnings were diversified?
For the 2026 budget, 100% of oil revenues are going to service debt. Nigeria is borrowing to service debt and pay salaries. Where is the other FX revenue from non-oil?
Many macro variables are doing well, but this here “diversified FX is plain happy talk”
Please do fact-check the CBN and NBS reports online
I have attached the CBN accounts for Nigeria for five years, compare oil and non oil
Regards
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