Sami Mäentausta

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Until the summer, the S&P 500 had one of the best starts ever

[Jan von Gerich @JanVonGerich]

Toisilla se talous vain puksuttaa eteenpäin.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Negative revisions for the S&P 493 and for the aggregate S&P 500 index

[Risto Murto @RistoMurto]

Maailmanindeksi (MSCI World) ylös vuodessa 27 %. Maailma näyttää erilaiselta ei-suomalaisen sijoittajan silmin.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Investors are earning the lowest extra premium to own global corporate debt over benchmark rates since early 2022. In the past 12 months, US high-yield bonds have gained 9.2%. https://t.co/CGZDRdppXk

[J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX]

The Russell3000 represents approximately 98% of all investable US equities by market capitalization. It closed yesterday at the highest level in its entire history.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved down to 2.9% in December, the lowest since March 2021. The Fed Funds Rate is now 2.3% above Core PCE, the most restrictive monetary policy we've seen since September 2007.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

US GDP rose 6.3% in nominal terms last year, outpacing China’s 4.6% gain. “All the talk of China becoming the world’s largest economy by GDP has been put on the backburner and delayed, if not indefinitely postponed.” https://t.co/jXPMYyKQSW

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: 14% of all commercial real estate (CRE) loans and 44% of office building loans are now in "negative equity."

In other words, the debt is now greater than the property value on all of these properties.

Currently, US banks hold over $2.9 trillion of CRE debt, the majority of which is held by regional banks.

Office building prices are down 40% from their highs and CRE as a whole is down over 20%.

All as rates rise and many of these loans are due to be refinanced.

CRE is beyond bear market territory.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

US financial conditions are now the most accommodative in two years, based on the Bloomberg index.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The S&P 500 has returned 9.8% annualized since 1928 with an average intra-year drawdown of -16.4%. There's no upside without downside, no reward without risk.

Video: https://t.co/8jYBKlHHml

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

"After the Goldilocks rally since late-October, we think the next stage is a return to 'Reverse Goldilocks'. As such, we cut our overweight stance on equities and HY credit to tactically underweight and wait for better re-entry points:" HSBC's Max Kettner

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The S&P 500 gained 24.2% in 2023 while S&P 500 earnings grew 8.6%, leading to a 14.4% multiple expansion and a year-end P/E ratio of 22.3. The average S&P 500 P/E ratio since 1989 is 19.3.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Asset Class Returns since 2011...

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Market returns around the end of a Fed hiking cycle.

More gains ahead?

[TheFastShow @TheFastShow1]

Snooker Shaft, featuring @colinmcfarlane and @SteveSnooker
#TheFastShow

[Bec Hill @bechillcomedian]

Merry Christmas to all my fellow auditory processing disorder "sufferers" xxx

[Jan von Gerich @JanVonGerich]

Kyllä se pohjainflaatiokin on selvässä laskussa. EKP:n koronlaskut ovat taas askeleen lähempänä.

[Win Smart, CFA @WinfieldSmart]

PAUL TUDOR JONES

EQUITIES
FISCAL DISASTER
BONDS
RECESSION

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

As mortgage rates surge to the highest levels since 2000, the mortgage market is going deeper into a state of paralysis. A gauge of US mortgage applications for home purchases fell to a 28-year low last week.