Samir Gilani

20+ yrs at ICICI, IDFC & RARE Enterprises. My work caught the Big Bull's attention. Writing privately to fund managers. Now going public. Views are personal.

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

What would Rakesh Jhunjhunwala be watching in these markets right now? I tried to answer that question with a forensic read of Nifty Futures open interest data from Feb 26 to April 2.

https://t.co/DlpxLPmHzC

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@Iamsamirarora Retweet for today- dejavu :)

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@Iamsamirarora @InvexTrax I second that as a Samir

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@Iamsamirarora hahaha! Well said Samir!

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@Iamsamirarora This is excellent work!

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@Iamsamirarora @AMITJAIN1441436 Sorry this is an interesting conversation, but I am still wondering why Samir you said such a precise number of 3 minutes 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@narutoindia1 Brings back fond memories of our biggest legend Rakeshji bhaiiya. I really wish he was around. He was not only a big bull but a very big optimist in life. I feel the more you see good in the world the more you prosper

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

thank you! The real question is:
“Am I building enough flexibility so that multiple futures remain possible?” If the answer is yes, then currency matters. Global exposure matters but only to an extent.
Don’t obsess over it. Don’t get trapped in FOMO. Don’t overfit the future.

Build wealth. Build options if you can. And let the future be a little more uncertain than your models.

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

When parents today say “I need USD exposure for my child’s US education,” it assumes a very fixed version of the future. And by the way, your son or daughter can get scholarships or take education loans very easily. That’s what my parents did for my brother and I. Life is not linear. Almost everything we consider “constant” today can change—and will change.

Maybe your child studies in India and thrives at an Ashoka or IIM. Maybe design schools become more sought after than MBAs in these AI driven worlds. Maybe they choose experiential learning, startups, or global remote degrees. Maybe education itself becomes hybrid, AI-led, or radically redefined.

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@deepakshenoy Ok fair enough. Not certain how the change of label matters because impact on the INR is still the same.
But I do get your drift.
Thanks - have a good one!

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

The income statement of XYZ Co. can be massaged, reclassified, reframed. But the cash flow statement is brutal honesty. Cash in, cash out, no argument.
Same here. You can reclassify gold from current account to financial account on the BoP "income statement." But the forex cash flow is unchanged. Dollars left the country. RBI has to replace them.

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

Appreciate the reply. A large share of Indian gold imports is consumed as jewellery for weddings, festivals, gifting. That is consumption, not investment, and belongs in the current account. But the forex drain is identical either way. RBI still funds it, rupee still feels it. The "headline CAD" matters to currency markets and sovereign credit analysts regardless of where the gold sits theoretically.

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@deepakshenoy Any reason why net of gold?

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@Iamsamirarora We have admired other countries doing the same. The 401k plans in the US was perhaps a big contributor to its stock market performance.
And yet when India has embarked on a similar trajectory - it seems like a foolish thing to do.
Why do we not love ourselves more?

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@deepakshenoy Thanks. Makes the leverage trade accessible to the really Ultra HNIs because funding the leveraged loan payment can be cumbersome.

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@Akshat_World @GoogleAhead4584 Change your start point. Point to point returns are not an investors real expereince. try rolling returns for both Nifty and USDINR.

Also need a better understanding of why USD returns are soo important all of a sudden? Your google and Netflix subscriptions cant be the reason..

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@deepakshenoy this is very good for NRIs and perhaps even better for returning NRIs. Returning NRIs become ordinary residents after 120-180 days. If they lock in a depsosit now they can earn around 11% INR returns CAGR 3 years

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@deepakshenoy @deepakshenoy
the central execution risk of the leveraged trade is this Your UAE bank loan will demand interest servicing every month or every quarter. At 5% on $900K borrowed, that is roughly $3,750 per month or $11,250 per quarter that you need to fund from somewhere.

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@1shankarsharma Visit Coonor, hrishkesh, Manali and Dharamshala. Might be hard for you spot an Indian in Dharamshala. Eat the food in conoor- and you will not complain.

India offers a lot.

[Samir Gilani @SamirGilani]

@1shankarsharma Shankar - first line has a typo...