Trump is learning a difficult lesson. In 2025 with tariffs he did effectively call the shots. Tariff on / tariff off. Market down / Market up.
This time around, control seems to be slipping away. Israel and Iran have their own objectives which are not aligned with American ones. But there is no pulling out now.
@TheIranianzg3z Iran gets to express its stated objective of being a counterweight to the Western model by being in the limelight. No conflict, no limelight. Their mosaic system is meant to endure. Their value systems put martyrdom super high.
There will be no deal.
There are two threads: debasement and multipolar fractioning.
1. When the US sanctioned Russian assets in 2022 it became clear: The US dollar came with political strings attached.
2. Debasement: The fiscal writing is on the wall, the currency has been massively debased this century and will invariably continue to be, with the worst happening in periods of stress.
@GavMcCracken Cushing hitting the op floor likely to be the butterfly effect of a little oily butterfly batting its wings in Cushing, Oklahoma, and the whole oil complex seeing prices surge.
On what timeline?
The weekly chart suggests that gold's trajectory since the turn of this century is still clearly UP. The channel has held.
We also hit the top and rolled over.
The daily chart suggests we've broken down from the trend.
Gold can be $10K by 2031 and $3.5K by 2027. Both can be true.
@zerohedge What is interesting is that for the BTC thesis to actually hold, we needed it to decouple from just being tech beta.
That seems to be happening.