Sam Kovacs

Macro hedge fund PM | EM policy advisor | 46K on SeekingAlpa

Outrun debasement in multipolar world. Macro threads & charts.

Babylon Burns Substack COMING SOON

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@OilandEnergy Just about by the end of the month. Wrote about this yesterday.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@zerohedge Guess who's in Bali lifestyle maxxing?

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

Trump is learning a difficult lesson. In 2025 with tariffs he did effectively call the shots. Tariff on / tariff off. Market down / Market up.

This time around, control seems to be slipping away. Israel and Iran have their own objectives which are not aligned with American ones. But there is no pulling out now.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@RosenvoldGeo We were going to have an oil squeeze without this re-escalation.
Now some people did see this coming, mind you.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@TheIranianzg3z Iran gets to express its stated objective of being a counterweight to the Western model by being in the limelight. No conflict, no limelight. Their mosaic system is meant to endure. Their value systems put martyrdom super high.
There will be no deal.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@staunovo How do you only get backwardation of $10 between now and year end?
I think the front of the curve is very confused rn.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@GavMcCracken Right, What's your view on Cushing reaching the floor?

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@StealthQE4 No shit Sherlock!

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@nicrypto Trump doesn't do performative media antics 🙄🙄🙄

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

There are two threads: debasement and multipolar fractioning.

1. When the US sanctioned Russian assets in 2022 it became clear: The US dollar came with political strings attached.

2. Debasement: The fiscal writing is on the wall, the currency has been massively debased this century and will invariably continue to be, with the worst happening in periods of stress.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@Barchart I truly wonder if these circuit breakers actually help, or if they just exacerbate the pain and panic on subsequent days?

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@nicrypto You think spillover into Nasdaq at open? futures holding up.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@GlobalMktObserv Now what's interesting is Nasdaq Futures are for now, very flat. Will be interesting to see what happens at open.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@GavMcCracken Cushing hitting the op floor likely to be the butterfly effect of a little oily butterfly batting its wings in Cushing, Oklahoma, and the whole oil complex seeing prices surge.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

On what timeline?
The weekly chart suggests that gold's trajectory since the turn of this century is still clearly UP. The channel has held.

We also hit the top and rolled over.

The daily chart suggests we've broken down from the trend.

Gold can be $10K by 2031 and $3.5K by 2027. Both can be true.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@dtarian04 If you hate money, for sure avoid oil longs.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@HFI_Research Hurling missiles is never funny, sir.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@zerohedge What is interesting is that for the BTC thesis to actually hold, we needed it to decouple from just being tech beta.
That seems to be happening.

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@AllVentured And the GCC tanks have never been so full!

[Sam Kovacs @SamKovX]

@HFI_Research There is no way this ends well. A great pair trade rn is long VLO short CVI