Samotsvety Forecasting

Forecasting on important questions

[Eli Lifland @eli_lifland]

I’ve been excited to see all the discussion of AI 2027, positive and negative. Here I'll respond to some themes of the criticisms we've gotten (this is all my opinion, not the team’s):
(1) It’s just speculative sci-fi
(2) 2027 is too soon
(3) We’re pushing the doomer agenda
🧵

[Nuño Sempere @NunoSempere]

Thread with some highlights from Sentinel's global risks weekly roundup 🧵

[Tolga Bilge @TolgaBilge_]

Nice article by Dylan Matthews in Vox on @SamotsvetyF, one of the groups I forecast with.

[Eli Lifland @eli_lifland]

Has been a fun ride with an awesome group of people. Looking forward to the coming years and appreciate Dylan’s work on the article.

[Molly Hickman @celloMolly]

Very nice piece about our forecasting team @SamotsvetyF from Dylan Matthews at @voxdotcom.

[Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF]

@LoveCatsRobots @TolgaBilge_ @Research_FRI @PTetlock See also https://t.co/AwRdnQpX6b

[Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF]

Important work by @TolgaBilge_ and forecasters on the chance of AI catastrophe and how we can avoid it

[Tolga Bilge @TolgaBilge_]

We just published with @SamotsvetyF, a group of expert forecasters, a forecasting report with 3 key contributions:

1. A predicted 30% chance of AI catastrophe

2. A Treaty on AI Safety and Cooperation (TAISC)

3. P(AI Catastrophe|Policy): the effects of 2 AI policies on risk

🧵

[Nuño Sempere @NunoSempere]

I find this hillarious. Personally I'm a fan of Samotsvety remaining a "there is this group with a vaguely Russian name. and they are good at predicting stuff, I promise, they're not scammers", but it looks like I'm going to get outvoted.

[Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF]

Samotsvety forecasters did not fact-check this.

[Nathan 🔎 @NathanpmYoung]

If you invite me to your wedding, you will stay together.

Factchecked by real samosvety superforecasters

[Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF]

Jonathan Mann writes about the future of the tech job market for @asteriskmgzn

https://t.co/CsQP4oNSuG

[Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF]

Our excellent @celloMolly is one of the mentors!

[Epoch AI @EpochAIResearch]

We are launching the Epoch and Forecasting Research Institute mentorship program for women, non-binary people, and trans people of all genders who want to contribute to the field of AI forecasting. Apply now! https://t.co/uWiOmCshCF

[Asterisk @asteriskmgzn]

The next pandemic is coming.

How can we predict what it will be? Or when it might come?

@juan_cambeiro forecasts the next Covid-level outbreak in Issue 02.
https://t.co/DQ5eOQG2Li

[Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF]

Link is here: <https://t.co/eE42W7OOls>.

[Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF]

New Samotsvety (draft) report is out on "Moore v. Harper and the future of US democracy", by Greg Justice.

[Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF]

"Is that a low disagreeableness reply, or do you actually agree. If so, how so?" — @NunoSempere

[Future Matters @FutureMatters_]

Samotsvety (@SamotsvetyF) has updated its AGI timelines. The median forecaster now believes AGI has a 50% chance of arriving by 2041, and a 31% chance of arriving by 2030.

https://t.co/sTkS5Z1LYV

[Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF]

Yep, also posted on our blog here: <https://t.co/FPIhgQa0h2>

[Future Matters @FutureMatters_]

Samotsvety (@SamotsvetyF) has updated its AGI timelines. The median forecaster now believes AGI has a 50% chance of arriving by 2041, and a 31% chance of arriving by 2030.

https://t.co/sTkS5Z1LYV

[Nikos Bosse @nikosbosse]

We're creating a database for base rates!

https://t.co/s5hSkbqqNA

The idea is to collect base rates for different categories of events and makes them available to researchers, forecasters and philanthropic organisations. 1/

[Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF]

An analysis of monkeypox from our own Jared Leibovich for the newly launched Asterisk!

[Asterisk @asteriskmgzn]

Each issue, we'll feature a forecaster who walks through their modeling process. In our debut issue, Jared Leibovich, the top forecaster on @GJ_Open, models the end of monkeypox in the United States.

https://t.co/BWNtx8B8YX

[Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF]

😉 @McKinsey

[Alvaro de Menard @AlvaroDeMenard]

Some thoughts on the future of forecasting

https://t.co/S14GBlsxDO