Santosh Mudgal

⚙️ Industrial Automation & MRO
📈 Trader & Investor | Option writter
🏃‍♂️ Runner | Learner | Optimist
Sharing actionable setups, risk mngmnt

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🧭 Thesis: #Nifty trend is down. Sell a failed bounce under 23,300, not the floor.

⚠️ Breaker: a 15m close above 23,300.

📚 OI written on the way down is a claim. A rejection makes it a level.

Bounce or breakdown first?

Not advice. #Nifty #BankNifty #optionselling

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🏦 #BankNifty 55,438.50 | MaxPain 56,500 → broke its Sept range; IV rank 91

🌏 US futures flat, Brent 105.8 → oil still a drag
India VIX 12.70 (+22.8%) → fear back in a day
FII sold ₹5,027cr cash → distributing

Nifty 50 rejig into the 29-Sep close: BSE in, Wipro out.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

📊 #Nifty 23,063.10 | exp 29-Sep (4 DTE)

🧲 Max Pain 23,300 (above spot, falling with price)
🔴 Call OI 24,000 (2.99L) · fresh calls 23,200-23,300
🟢 Put OI 22,000 (1.87L) · 23,000 (1.81L)
⚡ EM ±150 a session

The fresh call ceiling is written, not yet tested.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🏦 #BankNifty 56,548.90 | MaxPain 57,000 → HDFC Bank US listing -3.6%; banks at risk

🌏 S&P -0.76%, dollar +0.74% → risk-off
India VIX 10.29 → a low into a gap; room to jump
FII bought cash after 2 sell days → churn

Nifty 50 rejig 30-Sep: funds buy BSE, sell Wipro.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

📊 #Nifty 23,446.80 | exp 29-Sep (5 DTE)

🧲 Max Pain 23,500 (above spot)
🔴 Call OI 24,000 (2.35L)
🟢 Put OI 23,000 (1.95L)
⚡ EM ±104 a session

Fresh puts were written at 23,300-23,400. The gap opens below them: trapped writers, not support.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🏦 #BankNifty 56,216 | MaxPain 57,000 → too far, aside today

🌏 WTI -6.3%, US VIX -4.4% → calm, net positive for India
India VIX 10.92 (-2.88%) → multi-month low
FII selling cash 3rd day, DII absorbing → diverging, not panicking

Nifty rejig 30-Sep: funds buy BSE, sell Wipro

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

📊 #Nifty 23,329 | exp 29-Sep (6 DTE)

🧲 Max Pain 23,500 (+171)
🔴 Call OI 24,000 (2.17L)
🟢 Put OI 23,000 (1.46L)
⚡ EM ±262.90 (to exp)

Series just rolled - day-one levels, untested by price. Wait for a real test.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🧭 Thesis: #Nifty opens into 23,478–23,500, where the flip, R1 and the top call OI meet.

⚠️ Breaker: a 15-min close above 23,500.

📚 Big OI is not a wall until price is pushed back from it.

Which wins?

Educational, not investment advice. #Nifty #Sensex #optionselling

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🏦 #Sensex 74,858.99 | exp 24-Sep, MaxPain 74,800 → put OI +277,639 vs call +100,825, put-heavy across the board.

🌏 Asia up, Brent −6.6%.
India VIX 11.26 (−1.1%) → at the floor.
FII −576 cr, DII +2,797 cr.

UN debate opens tonight — the oil headline risk.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

📊 #Nifty 23,414.30 | exp 22-Sep (0 DTE)

🧲 Max Pain 23,400 (on the money)
🔴 Call OI 23,500
🟢 Put OI 23,400
⚡ Expected move ±132.90 (23,281–23,547)

The put shelf sits ON the at-the-money strike, so it isn't a floor. The 23,500 calls are untested.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🏦 #BankNifty 56,295.55 | MaxPain 57,500 → the magnet is 1,204 pts above spot, and no put wall sits below price.

🌏 Asia and Europe down 1–2%. Brent $101.21 (+3.4%) after Gulf shipping attacks.
FII short index futures, 3rd session.

US CPI + Fed both land next week.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

📊 #Nifty 23,431.50 | exp 15-Sep (3 sessions left)

🧲 Max Pain 23,600 (above spot)
🔴 Call OI 24,000
🟢 Put OI 23,000
⚡ Expected move ±144 (23,287–23,576)

Fresh call writing piled into 23,500–23,700 yesterday. Nobody has tested any of it yet.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🧭 Thesis: writers are positioned for a pin between 24,000–24,200.

⚠️ Breaker: 15-min close below 23,994 or above 24,240.

📚 Fresh OI tells you where the book WANTS the close. It is not a test.

Does the box hold? 👇

Educational, not advice. #Nifty #Sensex #optionselling

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🏦 #Sensex 76,957 | exp 03-Sep
Its heaviest put wall (77,000) now sits ABOVE spot — overhead supply, not a floor.

🌏 Yields up in unison: US 10Y 4.76%, Bund, JGB and Gilt futures all lower.
India VIX 11.04 (+3.4%)
FII cash −₹7,986cr, 3rd sell session

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

📊 #Nifty 24,080 | exp 01-Sep (0 DTE)

🧲 Max Pain 24,100
🟢 Biggest PE add 24,000 (+88,652)
🔴 Biggest CE add 24,100 (+79,052)
⚡ Expected move ±125 (23,975–24,225)

A box, not an edge. Writers rolled the floor down to 23,850–24,050 and took the strikes above spot.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🧭 Thesis: Nifty gaps into its 24,000-24,100 put shelf. Does that shelf hold?

⚠️ Breaker: 15-min close below 24,076.85.

📚 A wall is proven only when price goes there and is rejected.

Educational, not investment advice. #Nifty #Sensex #BankNifty #optionselling

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🏦 #BankNifty 57,496 → heaviest call AND put wall on the SAME strike, 57,500. Unresolved, not defended
📉 #Sensex 77,265 → put shelf 77,000, IV 1.7× realised

🌏 US fut -0.4%, KOSPI -4.1%, Brent $90.6
India VIX 10.59 (-4.3%) → no fear bid

FII index futures short a 3rd session

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

📊 #Nifty 24,175.65 | exp 01-Sep (1 DTE)

🧲 Max Pain 24,200 (above spot)
🔴 Call wall 24,300 → 24,500
🟢 Put wall 24,000 → 24,100
⚡ Expected move ±167 pts (0.69%)

A gap down opens the index inside its own put shelf, magnet overhead — the floor gets tested first.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

That overnight jump is cost of carry to the new expiry, not a market move.

For an option writer it matters: size a gap read off the raw print and you are trading a rollover.

#GIFTNifty #Rollover #optionselling
Educational, not investment advice.

[Santosh Mudgal @samT10]

🧭 Thesis: #Nifty holds 24,200 inside its box.

⚠️ Breaker: 15-min close beyond 24,500 or 24,200.

📚 Open interest is not a test. A wall earns credit only when price goes there and is rejected.

Box holds? 👇

Educational, not advice. #Nifty #Sensex #BankNifty #optionselling