Talking $SCHD on The Mispriced Podcast 🎙️ with @Dividendology
Honored to join Eli on his new channel, The Mispriced Podcast, for a wide-ranging conversation about $SCHD
And the timing couldn’t have been better.
We recorded today as $SCHD crossed $35 for the first time ever, so you’ll actually hear my live reaction to finding out it happened during the conversation. 😆
Just over eight months ago, $SCHD felt left for dead. Now it’s up more than 30% YTD and setting new all-time highs.
We talked about that turnaround and a lot more:
• Can you actually retire on $SCHD alone?
• What really drives its dividend growth
• How I think about pairing $SCHD with high-yield ETFs
• Whether $SCHD can keep outperforming in 2026 and beyond
• My long-term goal for the position and why I’m still building it
If you check it out, let me know what you think or what questions you have.
Full episode 👇
👀 $SCHD🥇has attracted more net inflows than any other dividend ETF so far in 2026.
Why do you think investors continue choosing $SCHD over the alternatives?
Why Does $SCHD Own 8 of the 10 Dogs of the Dow?
I don’t think it’s a coincidence. Both strategies use dividend yield as a value signal.
When a quality company’s price falls while its dividend remains intact, its yield rises, making it more likely to be selected.
The Dogs of the Dow strategy is simple.
Each year, it selects the 10 highest yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
$SCHD builds on that idea.
It starts with a much larger universe of dividend paying companies, narrows it to the higher yielding half, then applies additional screens for profitability, financial strength, dividend sustainability, and dividend growth before selecting its final 100 holdings.
In many ways, you could think of it as a more sophisticated evolution of the same underlying philosophy.
What’s interesting is how this year’s Dogs have performed.
Many of the companies that were out of favor last year have staged impressive recoveries in 2026, including $KO, $MRK, $PG, $VZ, $CVX, $AMGN, and $UNH.
$SCHD captured all of those.
It also owns $HD, which remains down YTD.
$NKE, which isn’t in $SCHD, has continued to struggle.
$JNJ isn’t in $SCHD either, yet it has been one of this year’s biggest turnaround stories.
No strategy captures every winner, and that’s okay.
Does adding quality screens improve the Dogs of the Dow strategy, or is simpler better?
IF YOU COULD PICK ONLY THREE THINGS YOU VALUE MOST ABOUT $SCHD, WHAT WOULD THEY BE?
🤩Here are mine:
1️⃣A Rules-Based Counterbalance to Growth
$SCHD provides a valuable counterbalance to my S&P 500 and growth investments, with greater exposure to value, dividends, and mature, profitable companies.
Its rules-based methodology does much of the work for me by relying on cold, hard fundamentals rather than emotional judgment calls.
Through its annual reconstitution and quarterly rebalancing, it continually refreshes and adjusts the portfolio, bringing in new value opportunities, removing companies that no longer meet its standards, and regularly resetting position weights.
This creates a natural buy-low, sell-high tendency while helping $SCHD maintain its identity as a value and dividend-growth fund with an above-average starting yield.
The result is exposure that is meaningfully different from the increasingly mega-cap-growth-heavy S&P 500, with the potential to provide greater stability, lower volatility, and more resilience during difficult markets.
2️⃣Underestimated Long-Term Total-Return Potential
I think $SCHD’s long-term total-return potential is often underestimated because many people view it primarily as an income ETF.
It may not experience the same rocket-like highs as growth-heavy investments during strong growth-led bull markets, but it can still participate meaningfully when markets rise while potentially providing greater resilience during difficult periods.
Over full market cycles, capturing a meaningful portion of the upside while potentially experiencing less downside can compound into very competitive long-term returns.
A backtest of the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, which $SCHD follows, showed that it outperformed the S&P 500 from 1999 through the period studied. Even longer-term market research has found that value stocks, like many of the companies $SCHD targets, have historically outperformed growth stocks over extended periods.
That certainly doesn’t mean value or $SCHD will outperform in the future.
Growth has dominated value for much of the period since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, particularly as large-cap technology companies have become increasingly influential in the market. But investors shouldn’t assume growth will always crush value simply because that has been the dominant trend for much of the past 15 years.
Market leadership changes over time, and the recent era of growth dominance won’t necessarily continue indefinitely.
3️⃣The Trifecta: Yield, Dividend Growth, and Capital Appreciation
$SCHD offers the rare combination of an attractive starting yield, long-term dividend growth, and capital appreciation.
You receive meaningful income today, have the potential for that income to grow over time, and can still benefit from long-term share-price appreciation.
Many investments do one or two of these things well, but relatively few have historically delivered a strong balance of all three.
🤩Those are my top three. The low expense ratio, diversification, simplicity, transparency, and growing income stream are pretty great too.
👉What would make your top three?
Buying $SCHD for 8 years. 33 quarterly dividends.
Dividend Growth:
Annual dividend per share: +105.5%
Yield on original cost: 6.62%
Price Appreciation:
Bought at: $15.83
Today: $32.35
Price increase: +104.4%
This is what long-term dividend growth can look like. 👇
Before You Panic About $SCHD’s Dividend, Read This. Let’s Talk.
Was the Q2 dividend disappointing? Absolutely.
Was it unexpected? Also yes.
But let’s keep it in perspective. This was the 8th time since $SCHD launched in 2011 that a quarterly dividend came in lower than the same quarter the previous year, and the 3rd time since 2019.
Yet despite those quarterly setbacks, $SCHD has increased its total annual dividend every single year since inception, averaging more than 10% annual dividend growth.
Quarterly dividends are not always a straight line. They can be affected by payment schedules, special dividends, annual reconstitutions, and the timing of when underlying holdings enter or leave the portfolio.
One theory that continues to make sense is that the March reconstitution created a timing issue.
My estimate assumed certain dividends from newly added holdings would make it into this quarter’s payout. If some of those payments missed the cutoff window, while certain removed holdings contributed to last year’s Q2 payout, that could explain at least part of the shortfall.
I’m still digging through the numbers, but something definitely feels off relative to what I expected based on the dividends paid by the underlying holdings.
The good news?
$SCHD’s combined Q1 + Q2 dividend is still slightly ahead of the same point last year. Not by much, about +0.08%, but it’s still positive.
And remember, this is the third time since 2019 we’ve seen a Q2 year-over-year dividend decline.
Each time, people worried the dividend growth story was broken. Each time, things ultimately worked themselves out.
Could annual dividend growth be smaller than usual in 2026? Yes.
Does $SCHD need a miracle to finish the year with positive dividend growth? No.
In fact, if this is largely a timing issue related to the March reconstitution, the dividends haven’t disappeared. They would simply show up in future quarters instead.
Q3 and especially Q4 will tell the story.
For now, this looks more like a timing issue than a fundamental problem.
Did I miss anything? Let me know your thoughts.
Back to the lab. Back to building.
I’ve already started adding shares toward my Q3 dividend payout.
How about you?
🚨 SCHD’S Q2 REBALANCE IS COMPLETE
$SCHD rebalances quarterly on the third Friday of June, September, and December.
Unlike the annual reconstitution that takes place each March, the quarterly rebalance is not about adding or removing stocks. Instead, it’s primarily about redistributing weight across the portfolio by trimming positions that have grown too large (above 4% cap/stock) and reallocating that weight throughout the fund.
See the image below for a quick overview of how the new Top 10 compares to the old.
NEW TOP TEN HOLDINGS
After the rebalance, the new Top 10 holdings are:
$UNH 4.36% 🟢⬆️ 2 spots (from #3)
$TXN 4.35% 🔴⬇️ 1 spot (from #1)
$PG 4.26% 🟢⬆️ 2 spots (from #5)
$HD 4.22% 🟢⬆️ 4 spots (from #8)
$AMGN 4.12% 🟢⬆️ 4 spots (from #9)
$KO 4.08% 🔴⬇️ 2 spots (from #4)
$ABT 4.07% 🟢⬆️ 6 spots (from #13)
$MRK 4.07% 🔴⬇️ 2 spots (from #6)
$PEP 3.99% 🟢⬆️ 2 spots (from #11)
$VZ 3.93% ⚪➖ Unchanged (#10)
The biggest cuts were to Technology:
$TXN: 6.39% → 4.35%
$QCOM: 6.22% → 3.59%
Combined, those two holdings went from 12.61% of fund assets to just 7.94%. That’s a reduction of 4.67 percentage points from two stocks alone.
Outside the Top 10, $QCOM experienced one of the biggest drops:
🔴⬇️ $QCOM fell from #2 to #12
At the same time, SCHD increased exposure to several defensive dividend names:
$ABT: 3.13% → 4.07%
$PG: 3.80% → 4.26%
$PEP: 3.47% → 3.99%
$AMGN: 3.56% → 4.12%
$HD: 3.63% → 4.22%
$MRK: 3.79% → 4.07%
The rebalance also reduced concentration risk.
Top 5 holdings:
25.98% → 21.31%
Top 10 holdings:
44.26% → 41.13%
Another notable change is that the largest holdings are now much more balanced. Before the rebalance, SCHD had three holdings above 5.5%:
$TXN 6.39%
$QCOM 6.22%
$UNH 5.50%
After the rebalance, no holding is above 4.36%.
NEW SECTOR ALLOCATION
Sector allocation also became more defensive:
Healthcare: 19% → 20%
Staples: 19% → 20%
Energy: 14% → 15%
Technology: 15% → 10%
Industrials remained 11%
Financials remained 10%
Discretionary remained 7%
Comm remained 6%
Key Takeaways
✅ Reduced the oversized tech exposure in $TXN and $QCOM
✅ Increased exposure to defensive names like $ABT, $PG, $PEP, $AMGN, $HD, and $MRK
✅ Lowered concentration risk in the largest holdings
✅ Made the top of the portfolio more balanced, with no holding above 4.36% versus three holdings above 5.5% before
For $SCHD investors, the most important change was probably the reduction of $TXN and $QCOM from a combined 12.6% of assets to 7.9%, while spreading that weight across healthcare, consumer staples, and other holdings throughout the portfolio.
What do you think of the rebalance?
📣 $SCHD Q2 Dividend Estimate Gets a Major Upgrade
Great news! After going back through the numbers to update my official estimate for the recent $UNH dividend increase, I found several pleasant surprises that significantly improved the outlook for the Q2 payout.
💰 New Estimate: $0.2743/share🤩
If correct, this would mean:
🟢 +5.42% vs Q2 2025 ($0.2602)
🏆 Third-highest quarterly dividend payout in $SCHD history
📈 Trailing 12-month dividend would increase from approximately $1.0557 to $1.0698
📅 Ex-Dividend: June 24
📅 Pay Date: June 29
What changed?
The obvious boost came from $UNH’s recent 5% dividend increase, but that wasn’t the only factor.
I also discovered several dividend increases that were not fully reflected in my original estimate:
• $PAYX +10%
• $FHI +12%
• $BANR +4%
• $SRCE +7.5%
• $CWEN continues to raise its dividend by approximately 1.6% each quarter, though my dividend tool has not yet updated.
Another surprise, however, came from the March reconstitution.
In my original estimate, it appeared several of the newly added holdings would miss the cutoff for the June distribution. After a much deeper review, it now looks like all of the new additions should be included in this payout. 🤩
Examples:
• $KFY was added to $SCHD on March 20, and its April dividend appears to qualify for this distribution.
• $CMC was also added during the March reconstitution, and its April dividend should be included as well.
Taken together, these updates added up to a much more favorable outcome than I originally expected and helped drive the upward revision.
📌 As always, this is still an educated estimate based on available data. The actual dividend could come in higher or lower.
What’s your prediction?
⬆️ Higher than $0.2743
⬇️ Lower than $0.2743
🎙️New interview with @MarcosMillaYT just went live!
We dug into why and how I’ve built my strategy around $SCHD, the plan to reach a $1M goal by 2035, and what real conviction looks like when an investment is out of favor.
If you care about dividend growth, building generational wealth, and sticking with a plan when it’s uncomfortable, this one’s for you.