Scott Martindale

CEO of Sabrient Systems investment research, family man, sports enthusiast, occasional songwriter.

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Warsh believes as I do that inflation is driven by excessive monetary expansion and deficit spending (including massive spending bills, “helicopter money,” and QE), rather than by a strong and productive private economy. The event-driven inflationary pressures will pass, and indeed the rerouting/diversification of supply chains and oil sources will have lasting beneficial impact. Solid GDP growth has been driven mostly by AI-related capex spend while broad segments of the economy—including lower-income/working-class consumers, small businesses, and housing—are struggling. I continue to insist that we need rate cuts for targeted relief to those weaker segments while reducing the bloated balance sheet. This ensures that the remaining liquidity is cheaper to access, preventing credit markets from locking up, without flooding the entire financial system with inflationary long-term liquidity. Less Fed demand for bonds might steepen the yield curve somewhat and keep mortgage rates elevated, but lower fed funds helps short-term construction rates and adjustable mortgage rates while lowering inflation and raising real wages.

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Brian, in my view, our US economy has become more recession-resistant, more technology-efficient, more services-oriented (meaning less energy-intensive and less at risk of inventory buildup that has to be dumped cheaply into the market, like China does), and thus less cyclical. This translates into structurally higher corporate margins, earnings, and capex confidence, which supports higher valuation multiples and lower credit spreads.

Inflation has likely seen its peak, and elevated Treasury yields likely have been driven more by hawkish signals from the Fed than from any actual concerns about structural inflation becoming embedded into the economy. Indeed, rising productivity, moderating event-driven supply chain disruptions, and a resumption in disinflationary secular trends promise to help inflation metrics recede back under 2.5%.

GDP growth has been driven mostly by AI-related capex spend, while broad segments of the economy—including lower-income/working-class consumers, small businesses, and housing—are struggling. I continue to pound the table on the idea that we need rate cuts (not hikes!) and a more dovish bias in Fed monetary policy.

Through the end of this decade and likely beyond, I expect to see smaller government and less low-ROI government spending in favor of more high-ROI capital allocation from an unleashed private sector as the primary engine of organic economic growth through fiscal support like favorable tax policy, deregulation, and other supply-side incentives for reshoring to increase domestic productive capacity. We also have a new “hands-off” Federal Reserve under new chairman Kevin Warsh that aims for less market intervention and does not fear that robust economic growth fuels inflation. Instead, Warsh believes as I do that inflation in general is driven by excessive monetary expansion and deficit spending (including massive spending bills, “helicopter money,” and QE), rather than by a strong and productive private economy.

I discussed all of this and much more, including the insidious rise of socialism, in my July market commentary yesterday at https://t.co/r6ATXV6wlP

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

I just posted my July Sector Detector article, "Record low consumer sentiment might be signaling record high stock prices ahead" on my blog at https://t.co/r6ATXV6wlP. I discuss:
1. The trend in consumer sentiment vs. stock prices
2. AI capex and power demand
3. Fundamental tailwinds and the impact on China
4. The “SaaSpocalyse” and what happens next
5. Global liquidity concerns
6. Status and outlook for GDP, inflation, jobs, and productivity
7. My final comments section on stanching the insidious rise of socialism in this country
8. Sabrient’s sector rankings, positioning of our sector rotation model, and some top-ranked ETF ideas

Broadening beyond the market’s biggest stocks is well in motion. Corporate profitability has been solid across industries, reflecting resilient demand, disciplined cost management, technological innovation, and sustainable productivity gains—not to mention the trillions of dollars in capex for the gradual onshoring/reshoring of manufacturing, much of it already underway.

I discuss the divergence between poor consumer sentiment versus a rising stock market, as well as the shift in focus from both the federal government and institutional investors into hard assets and infrastructure. Moreover, I expect a continuing trend toward smaller government and less low-ROI government spending in favor of more high-ROI capital allocation from an unleashed private sector as the primary engine of organic economic growth, leading to strong real GDP growth, rising productivity, and a resumption in other disinflationary trends that bring inflation back under 2.5%, and a new “hands-off” Federal Reserve under new chairman Kevin Warsh that aims for less market intervention and does not fear that robust economic growth fuels inflation.

As such, I still think the S&P 500 might hit 8,000 by year end, although I also think gold, silver, copper, and bitcoin remain long-term accumulation plays, even though they might see further near-term headwinds (e.g., war, a hawkish Fed, and a strong dollar).

Sabrient’s Baker’s Dozen, Forward Looking Value, Small Cap Growth, and Dividend model portfolios have been largely outperforming their benchmarks. The new Q3 2026 Baker’s Dozen launches next Monday 7/20.
$SPY $NVDA $MU #stocks #ETFs #economy #investing

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Okay, so I've watched more soccer during this 2026 World Cup than I have in total for my entire life before this, maybe by a factor of ten. I have really enjoyed the spectacle of it all, the fervor, the national pride, the sportsmanship. But I have not become a soccer fan. Probably won’t watch it ever again after the WC is over. What I have seen reminded me as to why I've never found soccer appealing, even though I can sit and watch pretty much any other sport, whether football, tennis, golf, softball, billiards, or whatever.

Why? First, the incessant flopping. I mean, think of pro basketball with the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Caitlin Clark constantly flopping on the ground looking for free throws because they’re easier to make than field goals. Well, multiply that times 50 because that's both the added frequency of flops and the difference in scoring goals between soccer and basketball. It’s just too difficult to score in top-flight soccer. The best way to score is to get a free kick from close in, or better yet, a penalty kick, so they're constantly flopping around at the slightest brush of the hand, trying to get the foul call, each time writhing on the ground like they just had a gnarly motorcycle accident, trying to influence the referee in a “flopping Olympics” and trying to outdo each other’s agony. So, these players need to be accomplished actors as much as finely tuned athletes. The acting skill is like the Savannah Bananas, except the Bananas are more entertaining.

The France-Paraguay game was the icing on the cake for me. Just ludicrous. It was a flop fest. But when an actual foul was called in the penalty area, it was not just a free kick but a gimme penalty kick. In this case, the French player was in no way in a scoring position, with defenders all around him, but he was indeed fouled. So, the rule says he gets the penalty kick, which is almost automatic for any player. But he wasn’t the one who was required to take the shot. No, any player on the team can take the gimme penalty shot. So, of course France’s star player Mbappe takes it. It’s just so ridiculous. Nearly impossible to score during the regular flow of the game, so the ref calls a penalty, and the best player just makes a virtually uncontested “layup.” The only thing even close to this in the NFL is when a ref calls a questionable pass interference on a long pass into the end zone, and the spot foul means the offense gets first down on the goal line. But it’s much easier to make up for it in the NFL. Not so in the World Cup.

The red card rule is another travesty. The one issued against USA star striker Fol Balogun in the BiH game is a case in point. The referee had the sole decision on a questionable play, with no appeal process, even though the consequences are so severe. The USA lost its best player for the rest of the game (no substitute allowed, having to play with just 10 men), plus he’s banned for the whole next game, even though the fouled player continued to play and looked just fine.

So, I have a few suggestions. They are admittedly major changes that would never be implemented. But they would make it way more spectator friendly. One is to change the offside rule, which is onerously restrictive and can be gamed by the defense. One inch of your toe beyond the defender and you're offside. It’s hard enough to score, but this rule makes it nearly impossible at the top echelons of the game. It makes 0-0 the expected final score, ultimately decided by a penalty kick shootout, which is the opposite of the main game in that it is nearly impossible not to score (unless the kicker chokes).

Another suggestion is to reduce the number of players on the field by one (down to 10) on each side. It is just too crowded around the goal to score, which compounds the restrictiveness of the offside rule.

And finally, we have the red-card rule, which may have just sunk the USA’s chances for no valid reason. It should be more like the penalty box in hockey, where a player must sit for 2-10 minutes while his team plays shorthanded, but he’s not suspended through the next game. It’s outrageous. At the very least, the next-game suspension should be appealable to FIFA for review rather than resting solely with the referee in the heat of the game.

I’ve said my piece.

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

@MrGrythms @RSherman_25 Remember this catch from SB XII in 1978? Back when only momentary control (whether in the end zone or as you landed) still counted. https://t.co/PuWRQZ7LaS

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

It's perfect weather here in Scottsdale this weekend, but for those trapped in cold weather, you might want to read my latest post at https://t.co/r6ATXV5Ywh with in-depth market analysis titled, "Expect more upside for stocks this year but different leadership."

There is continued optimism and room for more upside in 2026, although we may see lower returns from the MAG7 and rotation into value stocks, small-mid caps, and cyclical sectors (like Industrials and Financials), as well as segments like Biotech that are successfully leveraging AI for discovery and innovation. Already, there has been some convergence between the stretched forward P/Es for cap-weight vs. the more reasonable equal-weight indexes. This also might favor strategic beta and active management.

I go much deeper on these topics in my full post, including a review of 2025 relative performance the AI bubble narrative, corporate earnings, GDP, jobs, inflation, and Fed policy.

Investors would be well-served to focus on high-quality businesses that are fundamentally strong and have a reasonable valuation compared to its peers and its own history. This is Sabrient's focus in our quantitative models and portfolio selection process, which provides exposure to growth, value, quality, and size factors and to both secular and cyclical growth.

In fact, the new Q1 2026 Sabrient Baker’s Dozen portfolio will launch on Tuesday, 1/20. Also, because small caps tend to benefit most from lower rates and deregulation, and high dividend payers become more appealing as bond alternatives as interest rates fall, Sabrient’s Small Cap Growth and Dividend (growth & income) portfolios also might be timely. Notably, our Earnings Quality Rank (EQR) is a key factor in each of our strategies, and it is also licensed to the actively managed, low-beta First Trust Long-Short ETF ($FTLS) as a quality prescreen.
#stocks #investing #economy #inflation $SPY $QQQ $RSP $IWM

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Yesterday morning, I posted on the blog at https://t.co/r6ATXV6wlP my November market commentary and sector analysis, "Stocks waver ahead of holidays…will Santa arrive as scheduled?" I discussed this year’s narrow, speculative rally and mega-cap leadership, whether the AI trade has gotten ahead of itself, market headwinds versus tailwinds, inflation indicators (in the absence of government data), and reasons to be optimistic about stocks. I also reveal Sabrient’s latest fundamental-based SectorCast quantitative rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, current positioning of our sector rotation model, and several top-ranked ETF ideas.

Rather than a resumption of the FOMO/YOLO momentum rally on the backs of a narrow group of AI leaders, I expect the euphoria will be more tempered in 2026 such that we get a healthy broadening and wider participation across caps and sectors and with a greater focus on quality and profitability. There are plenty of neglected high-quality names out there worthy of investment dollars and presenting an opportunity to build diversified portfolios having much better valuations and less downside than the S&P 500, including neglected large, mid, and small caps and value stocks, many of which display a solid earnings history and growth trajectory as well as low volatility, with greater room for multiple expansion. Small caps tend to benefit most from lower rates and deregulation, and high-dividend payers become more appealing as bond alternatives as interest rates fall.

Top-ranked sectors in Sabrient’s SectorCast model include Technology, Healthcare, and Financials. In addition, Basic Materials, Industrials, and Energy also seem poised to eventually benefit from fiscal and monetary stimulus, domestic capex tailwinds, a burgeoning commodity Supercycle, rising demand for natural gas for power generation, and more-disciplined capital spending programs.

#stocks #bonds #investing $SPY $QQQ $IWM $NVDA

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Yesterday, I posted an article, "Is the market finally ready for a value rotation?" You can find the full post at https://t.co/r6ATXV6wlP. The latest CPI report coupled with the stagnant jobs market essentially gave the FOMC license to continue its rate cutting cycle this week, and fed funds futures now give highest odds for three more 25-bp cuts over the next 12 months. Historically, rate cuts give an outsized boost to growth over value stocks. But this time might be different given the lengthy stretch of outperformance of growth over value and large over small caps, driven by the Big Tech juggernauts, as investors have anticipated a more accommodative Fed for a long time. After several sporadic attempts, I explore in this article whether the market finally might be ready for a sustained market rotation into neglected value stocks and smaller caps.

So, perhaps the time is ripe to add value stocks as a portfolio diversifier, such as the annual Sabrient Forward Looking Value Portfolio (FLV 13). In addition, small caps tend to benefit from lower rates and deregulation, and high-dividend payers become more appealing as bond alternatives when interest rates fall. So, Sabrient’s quarterly Small Cap Growth and Dividend portfolios also might be timely as beneficiaries of a broadening market—in addition to our flagship, all-season, quarterly Baker’s Dozen growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) portfolio.

Sabrient’s multifactor models and selection process prioritize fundamental quality, which is a timeless characteristic to which even the most speculative market always (eventually) reverts. In addition, our cash-flow and balance-sheet oriented Earnings Quality Rank (EQR) is a key factor used in all our internal models and is also licensed to the low-beta First Trust Long-Short ETF (FTLS) as a quality prescreen. #stocks #economy #value #investing $QQQ $SPY $NVDA $AAPL $RPV

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

@wesbury Maybe no breakthroughs yet (which might require quantum computing advances), but here’s an interesting story from George Gilder on how ChatGPT was able to solve a medical mystery that the specialists couldn’t….
https://t.co/8rTeqI2EwI

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Yesterday, I posted my monthly market letter for October 2025, "Stocks enter Q4 with Fed, tax, earnings, and AI tailwinds, but also lofty valuations" at https://t.co/EZm2d7rA7o. I discuss Fed policy, the modest inflationary pressures, the weak private sector jobs market, solid-but-fragile economic growth outlook, lofty stock valuations, and the case for value and small caps given emerging monetary and fiscal support. I also reveal Sabrient’s latest fundamental-based SectorCast quantitative rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, current positioning of our sector rotation model, and several top-ranked ETF ideas.

The broad market was long overdue for a healthy broadening to bolster bullish conviction, and indeed it appears the ducks have finally lined up to support it. GDPNow forecasts 3.8% Q3 growth, interest rates are coming down across the curve, corporate earnings momentum remains strong (albeit based more on productivity growth and cost-cutting than on sales growth), the VIX remains low, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) remains at or below the zero line, global liquidity growth is positive, new tax rates and deregulation are supportive, exciting new technologies are accelerating, strategic reshoring and supply chain redundancies are underway (but not total deglobalization), and secular disinflationary trends have resumed. The only thing missing is a fed fund rate (FFR) at the neutral rate—which is around 3.0%, in my view.

But that’s not to say we won’t get a pullback in the near term. Cautionary signals abound, so investors should be tactically vigilant in this environment of high & rising valuation multiples, overbought technicals, sluggish corporate sales growth, rising bankruptcies and delinquencies, and falling Leading Economic Indicators by focusing on high-quality companies and diversification (across sectors and asset classes) while holding hedges (like protective put options or inverse ETFs).

Top-ranked sectors in Sabrient’s model include Technology, Financials, Industrials, which all seem poised to benefit from stimulus and capex tailwinds. The steepening yield curve should be favorable for regional banks, which borrow short and lend long (so a higher spread leads to higher profits). Also top-ranked in our model is Healthcare, which might be a sleeper opportunity.

The Sabrient team focuses on fundamental quality—starting with a robust quantitative growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) model followed by a detailed fundamental analysis and selection process—in selecting our Baker’s Dozen, Forward Looking Value, Dividend, and Small Cap Growth portfolios, which are packaged and distributed as UITs by First Trust Portfolios. Notably, our proprietary Earnings Quality Rank (EQR) is a key factor used in our internal models, and it is also licensed to the actively managed First Trust Long-Short ETF ($FTLS) as a quality prescreen.
$SPY $QQQ $NVDA $ORCL, $IYW, $DJT

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Today, I posted Part 3 of my 3-part series on, "The Future of Energy, the Lifeblood of an Economy" at https://t.co/EZm2d7rA7o. I close the series by discussing these topics: 1) Solving the US grid fragility problem, 2) The future is nuclear, 3) Rare earth elements, 4) Superconductors, and 5) Investment opportunities. Then I close as usual with Sabrient’s latest fundamental-based SectorCast quantitative rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and current positioning of our sector rotation model.

By the way, Sabrient’s 13th annual Forward Looking Value 13 portfolio launched on 8/15 with a value and small/mid-cap bias, as an alpha-seeking alternative to the S&P 500 Value Index (SPYV). This may be a timely investment in that Fed rate cuts this fall should be favorable for value stocks and small caps, which frequently are capital intensive and carry significant debt as part of their capital structure. Our other portfolios in primary market include Q3 2025 Baker’s Dozen which launched on 7/18, Dividend 53 which launched on 8/8 with a yield of 4.0%, and Small Cap Growth 47 which launched on 7/16. All four represent alpha-seeking alternatives to passive broad-market benchmarks. They are offered as UITs by First Trust.

We also license our Earnings Quality Rank (EQR), which is a factor used in all of our internal models, to the First Trust Long-Short ETF (FTLS) as a quality prescreen.

You can sign up for email delivery of my "Sector Detector" commentaries at https://t.co/r6ATXV6wlP.

#stocks #economy #energy #sectors #investing #ETFs

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Allow me to offer my insights into this week's CPI and PPI reports for July, which seem worrisome on the surface but might not be so bad after all. CPI came in modest at 2.73% YoY, 0.20% MoM, and past 3 months annualized trend of 2.28%, which set the market on fire as a green light for the Fed to cut rates. But then today, PPI came in ultra-hot at 3.31% YoY, 0.9% MoM, and past 3 months annualized trend of a scorching 5.45%, which the market didn't like very much, especially the rate-sensitive small caps.

However, the charts below show that PPI tends to have greater volatility and a wider range than CPI. But over the past 15 years, both CPI and PPI have averaged right around 2.6% YoY. In the top chart of YoY numbers, I have drawn 2-year trendlines (PPI trending up and CPI trending down). They appear to cross at about 2.6% and may be destined to converge there.

In the lower chart, I show rolling 3-month annualized numbers to give a better read on the current trend. You can see that over the past 2 years, PPI seems to be in a wide range between 6.0% and -1.5%, which implies a midpoint of 2.25%. This is also where the 3-month CPI fluctuations appear to be settling.

So, both charts suggest to me that inflation seems to be destined to settle somewhere in the 2.25–2.50% range. A corroborating metric is the real-time blockchain-based Truflation metric, updated daily, which has fluctuated between 1.60–2.27% YoY over the past 3 months and currently sits at 1.99%.

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Today, I posted Part 2 of a 3-part series entitled, "The Future of Energy, the Lifeblood of an Economy" at https://t.co/EZm2d7rA7o. In today’s edition, I discuss: 1) Green legislation and subsidies encounter roadblocks, 2) Europe has hit a breaking point, and 3) Surging power demand from AI and other new technologies. Then I close as usual with Sabrient’s latest fundamental-based SectorCast quantitative rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and current positioning of our sector rotation model.

Last week in Part 1, I discussed the following topics: 1) A brief history of energy, 2) Fossil fuels remain dominant today, and 3) The push for renewables. In case you missed it, you can find it at my blog on https://t.co/r6ATXV6wlP.

And next week in Part 3, I will discuss: 1) Solving the US grid fragility problem, 2) The future is nuclear, 3) Rare earth elements, 4) Superconductors, and 5) Investment opportunities.

BTW, I began my career with Chevron Corporation in various engineering, analytical, and operational roles, and I continue to follow the Energy sector to this day.

You can sign up for email delivery of my "Sector Detector" commentaries at https://t.co/r6ATXV6wlP.

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Today, I posted Part 1 of a 3-part series entitled, "The Future of Energy, the Lifeblood of an Economy" at https://t.co/EZm2d7rA7o. In summary, it is essential that we have abundant, affordable, reliable, equitable, secure, and clean power generation, and the key energy sources to achieve that are natural gas today and nuclear in the longer term.

I began my professional career with Chevron Corporation in various engineering, analytical, and operational roles, and I continue to follow the Energy sector to this day.

In Part 1 of my 3-part commentary, I discuss the following topics: 1) A brief history of energy, 2) Fossil fuels remain dominant today, and 3) The push for renewables. Then I close as usual with Sabrient’s latest fundamental-based SectorCast quantitative rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and current positioning of our sector rotation model.

Coming up next week in Part 2, I will discuss: 1) Green legislation and subsidies encounter roadblocks, 2) Europe hitting a breaking point, and 3) Surging power demand from AI and other new technologies.

And then the following week in Part 3, I will discuss: 1) Solving the US grid fragility problem, 2) The future is nuclear, 3) Rare earth elements, 4) Superconductors, and 5) Investment opportunities.

You can sign up for email delivery of of these essays at https://t.co/r6ATXV6wlP.

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Interesting post today from George Gilder, "Trump: Reagan's True Heir." https://t.co/yvnwZIWVUV ...He concludes, "Tariffs have not outweighed the beneficial impacts of tax policy for decades and they are unlikely to do so under Trump. His preservation of the tax cuts in the One Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB) will prove far more important than anything he might do on the tariff front… The combination of meaningful tax rate reductions, deregulation, especially in the energy sector, and the growing economic power of AI points to good news for investors for years to come. Take advantage.” #stocks

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

These two charts show YoY inflation metrics and rolling 3-month (MoM) annualized. It looks like normal data gyrations in an economy that is "back to normal." Moreover, GSCPI supply chain pressure is 0.0, global liquidity and M2 growth is modest/supportive, tax rates and deregulation are supportive, exciting new technologies accelerating, some strategic reshoring (not total deglobalization), and resumption in most secular disinflationary trends and productivity growth. Only thing missing is FFR at neutral rate of around 3.0-3.5%.

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Today, I posted my monthly market letter for July 2025 titled, "As visibility improves, investor focus can return to America's dynamism" at https://t.co/EZm2d7rA7o. I offer my take on the trends in inflation, jobs, and GDP metrics, stock valuations, the OBBBA, Fed policy, and why the USA is still the place to invest both domestic and foreign capital. I also reveal Sabrient’s latest SectorCast rankings, our sector rotation model positioning, and top-ranked ETF ideas from interesting corners of the market.

I discuss the low equity risk premium and lofty valuations built more on multiple expansion than rising earnings growth. But there are plenty of reasonably priced high-quality companies outside of the pricey Big Tech titans. So, rather than the passive cap-weighted indexes dominated by Big Tech, investors may be better served by active stock selection that seeks to identify under-the-radar, undervalued, high-quality gems. This is what Sabrient seeks to do in our various portfolios, all of which provide exposure to Value, Quality, Growth, and Size factors and to both secular and cyclical growth trends.

When I say, “high-quality company,” I mean one that displays a history of consistent, reliable, resilient, durable, and accelerating sales, earnings, and free cash flow growth, rising profit margins, a history of meeting/beating estimates, high capital efficiency and ROI, solid earnings quality, a strong balance sheet, low debt burden, competitive advantage, and a reasonable valuation compared to its peers and its own history.

Your comments are invited!

[Scott Martindale @ScottMartindale]

Inflation metrics continue to soften, as I have been insisting they would. After all, disruptive innovation like AI is deflationary by increasing productivity, China’s economic woes are deflationary (cheaper goods), and tariffs are deflationary (in the absence of commensurate rise in income), so the rising GDP forecast and falling CPI numbers reflect the opposite of the “stagflation” scare the MSM keeps trumpeting, as I discussed in detail in my “Sector Detector” blog post this past Monday.

The upper chart below compares May CPI at +2.38%, PPI at +2.65%, Core CPI at +2.77% (PCE is released later this month). These numbers show flattening from April. But the lower chart shows the rolling 3-month annualized rates for a better read of the current trend, which shows CPI annualized at just +1.01%, PPI at -0.74% (yes, negative), Core CPI at +1.71%. while the real-time, blockchain-based Truflation metric is +1.91% (as of 6/12). The 2025 downtrend is clear, following the previous administration’s last-minute Oct-Jan spending surge.

Looking ahead, the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation NowCasting model as of 6/12 sees June YoY CPI coming in at 2.61% and PCE at +2.33%. And annualizing their Q2 forecast (similar to my rolling 3-month average) suggests June CPI will be +1.56% and PCE +1.51%.

As for supply chains, the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) remains subdued (despite the tariff and trade war hysteria), oscillating at or below the zero line since February 2023. For May, it came in at just +0.29 following April’s negative reading of -0.28, indicating relatively normal activity and costs throughout the global supply chain. #inflation #economy #stocks