![ChrisMartzWX's tweet photo. Stronger hurricanes? Longer droughts? Heavier rainfall?
Sounds pretty scary, but these claims are misleading or outright false.
ππππππππ ππππππππππ?
There is very little evidence to support the claim that tropical cyclones (TCs) are becoming measurably stronger. Klotzbach et al. (2022) examined data from 1990β2021 (homogenous satellite monitoring) and found decreases in both global hurricane-strength TC counts and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over that period. Also, major hurricane-strength TCs have not increased in frequency since 1990. If global warming were causing an increase in intensity, there'd be more major hurricanes (MHs) and higher ACE. These trends have continued into 2025 (top left charts).
πhttps://t.co/PWeGmQeRpL
πhttps://t.co/MQ9mYK57Er
The IPCC claims, however, that a βgreater proportionβ of TCs are now reaching MH status.
πhttps://t.co/kF3DUrSi51 (p. 1519, 1586)
This is very deceptive framing, however, because the increase in the ratio of MHs to total hurricanes only exists because the [more common] weaker hurricanes have decreased in frequency while comparatively rarer major hurricanes have remained fairly constant (e.g., Jewson & Lewis, 2020)
πhttps://t.co/uJIpXwzJ1h
What about rapid intensification (RI)? Well, the global number of RI events (defined as a β₯30-kt OR 35 mph increase in the maximum sustained wind speed in β€24 hours) have been fairly constant since 1990 as well, according to the Supporting Information document in Klotzbach et al. (2022). These trends have continued since the study was published (top right bar chart).
Increases in Atlantic TC activity (especially post-1995) are mainly due to multidecadal variability. NOAA GFDL's Dr. Thom Knutson has a very good webpage detailing that.
πhttps://t.co/wu0ZWtaWj9
ππππππ ππππππππ?
Changes in drought frequency and intensity over the last several decades are nuanced.
Here's what IPCC AR6 WG1 says on detection,
π¨οΈ βπβπππ ππ πππ ππππππ
ππππ π‘βππ‘ βπ’πππ πππππ’ππππ βππ ππππππ‘ππ π‘πππππ ππ ππππππππππππππ π
πππππππ ππ πππ π‘ πππππππ ... πβπππ ππ πππ
πππ ππππππ
ππππ π‘βππ‘... ππππππ‘π πβππππ βππ ππππ‘ππππ’π‘ππ π‘π ππππππππππ πππππ
π ππ π‘βπ ππππππππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ‘πππ ππ‘π¦ ππ ππππππ‘ ππππππππππππ πππ ππππππππππ π
πππππππ... π»π’πππ-ππππ’ππ ππππππ‘π πβππππ βππ ππππ‘ππππ’π‘ππ π‘π ππππππ-π ππππ πβππππ ππ πππ€ ππππ€, ππ’π‘ πππππ πππππ ππππππππππ πππ
ππππ
-πππ πππππππ πππ ππππ πππππππππ π
ππππππ.β
πhttps://t.co/kF3DUrSi51 (p. 1579)
A more recent analysis, Vicente-Serrano et al. (2022), concluded similarly, saying,
π¨οΈ βπ¨ ππππππ ππππππππ ππ πππ ππππππππ ππ ππππππππππππππ π
ππππππ ππ πππ πππππππππ
ππ¦ π‘βπ πππππ¦π ππ ππ ππππππππ‘ππ‘πππ πππππππ‘π , ππ ππππ¦ π πππ€ πππππππ ππ π‘βπ π€ππππ π βππ€ ππ πππππππ π ππ π‘βπ π ππ£ππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ‘πππππππππππ ππππ’πβπ‘π .β
π https://t.co/IwWv6qObTy
Instrumental data from the University of East Anglia's (UEA) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) shows that these conclusions hold through at least 2024 (see bottom left area chart).
πhttps://t.co/9dNRQEJ10f
Additionally, changes in hydrological droughts were found not to be due to climate change, but instead were related to other man-made influences such as land use and poor water resource management (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2022),
π¨οΈ βπ°ππππππππ οΏ½οΏ½π π‘βπ πππππ’ππππ¦ πππ π ππ£ππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ
πππππππππ π
πππππππ πππ ππ π‘πππππ ππ ππππ‘ π‘π βπ’πππ πππ‘ππ£ππ‘πππ π π’πβ ππ ππππ
πππ ππππππ πππ
ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππππ (π.π., π‘βπ πππππ‘ππππππππ ππππ, ππππ‘βπππ π‘ π΅πππ§ππ).β
πππππππ πππππ
πππ?
The theoretical foundation pushed by alarmists is the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation, which essentially states that about 7% more water can evaporate into unsaturated air (relative humidity <100%) for every 1Β°C increase in air temperature.
This much is true. But this nugget of truth is blindly extrapolated to mean uniformly heavier downpours. The problem, though, is that CC tells us nothing about rainfall rate, much less how much rain falls out of a given cloud. It also does not work very well over land areas where moisture sources are finite and there are topographic influences that can act to enhance or suppress rainfall (e.g., Adam, 2023).
πhttps://t.co/14YgpLQud8
A major study by Simpson et al. published in PNAS in 2024 found that in many arid and semi-arid regions (which cover vast areas of the globe), near-surface water vapor has not increased in recent decades (it has even declined in some places) contrary to nearly all climate model simulations in CMIP6 assuming near-CC scaling.
πhttps://t.co/0ovM0rXuMt
In the U.S., apparent increases in heavy rainfall are heavily contaminated by non-climatic factors. Dr. David Legates has documented how shifts in meteorological instrumentation have created artificial jumps in extreme precipitation records.
Between 1992 and 1995, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) began a modernization program, switching from hourly precipitation measurements taken manually from rain gauges to using Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), which sought to provide near-real-time observations automatically without manual labor. They adopted βtipping-bucketβ rain gauges which measure rainfall by collecting water in a small bucket that tips and empties once a fixed amount of precipitation has accumulated.
πhttps://t.co/bTcShQGr2t
While convenient for automation, βtipping-bucketβ gauges are known to introduce systematic biases, particularly during periods of intense rainfall.
1β£ They are known to lose some rainfall during intense downpours because water continues falling while the bucket is in the process of tipping and resetting.
To compensate, the NWS usually applies increasingly large adjustments as rainfall intensity rises. However, if these correction factors do not accurately represent the behavior of the gauge during extreme events, they may inadvertently exaggerate the magnitude of the heaviest precipitation totals.
2β£ Newer ASOS gauges also use Alter windshields, which reduce wind-induced undercatch by shielding the gauge opening from airflow. Because wind tends to deflect raindrops away from precipitation gauges, the addition of windshields increases collection efficiency and generally results in higher recorded precipitation amounts than older unshielded manual gauges.
πhttps://t.co/WC2zJ4TJ76
If you examine the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding the 99th percentile (top 1% heaviest events) per year (averaged per station), there is a spurious jump in the early 1990s that coincides with changes in instrumentation to more efficient rain gauges (bottom right graph). If this were purely a climatic artifact, the increase would be steadily upward, not sudden.
It is very likely that this trend exists elsewhere too as automated instrumentation has taken over, although daily data is spatially limited, especially in Africa and much of South America.
Seth needs to do more homework. This wasn't a very good, much less accurate presentation.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJ7KXsFXwAA55Qp.jpg)
![ChrisMartzWX's tweet photo. Stronger hurricanes? Longer droughts? Heavier rainfall?
Sounds pretty scary, but these claims are misleading or outright false.
ππππππππ ππππππππππ?
There is very little evidence to support the claim that tropical cyclones (TCs) are becoming measurably stronger. Klotzbach et al. (2022) examined data from 1990β2021 (homogenous satellite monitoring) and found decreases in both global hurricane-strength TC counts and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over that period. Also, major hurricane-strength TCs have not increased in frequency since 1990. If global warming were causing an increase in intensity, there'd be more major hurricanes (MHs) and higher ACE. These trends have continued into 2025 (top left charts).
πhttps://t.co/PWeGmQeRpL
πhttps://t.co/MQ9mYK57Er
The IPCC claims, however, that a βgreater proportionβ of TCs are now reaching MH status.
πhttps://t.co/kF3DUrSi51 (p. 1519, 1586)
This is very deceptive framing, however, because the increase in the ratio of MHs to total hurricanes only exists because the [more common] weaker hurricanes have decreased in frequency while comparatively rarer major hurricanes have remained fairly constant (e.g., Jewson & Lewis, 2020)
πhttps://t.co/uJIpXwzJ1h
What about rapid intensification (RI)? Well, the global number of RI events (defined as a β₯30-kt OR 35 mph increase in the maximum sustained wind speed in β€24 hours) have been fairly constant since 1990 as well, according to the Supporting Information document in Klotzbach et al. (2022). These trends have continued since the study was published (top right bar chart).
Increases in Atlantic TC activity (especially post-1995) are mainly due to multidecadal variability. NOAA GFDL's Dr. Thom Knutson has a very good webpage detailing that.
πhttps://t.co/wu0ZWtaWj9
ππππππ ππππππππ?
Changes in drought frequency and intensity over the last several decades are nuanced.
Here's what IPCC AR6 WG1 says on detection,
π¨οΈ βπβπππ ππ πππ ππππππ
ππππ π‘βππ‘ βπ’πππ πππππ’ππππ βππ ππππππ‘ππ π‘πππππ ππ ππππππππππππππ π
πππππππ ππ πππ π‘ πππππππ ... πβπππ ππ πππ
πππ ππππππ
ππππ π‘βππ‘... ππππππ‘π πβππππ βππ ππππ‘ππππ’π‘ππ π‘π ππππππππππ πππππ
π ππ π‘βπ ππππππππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ‘πππ ππ‘π¦ ππ ππππππ‘ ππππππππππππ πππ ππππππππππ π
πππππππ... π»π’πππ-ππππ’ππ ππππππ‘π πβππππ βππ ππππ‘ππππ’π‘ππ π‘π ππππππ-π ππππ πβππππ ππ πππ€ ππππ€, ππ’π‘ πππππ πππππ ππππππππππ πππ
ππππ
-πππ πππππππ πππ ππππ πππππππππ π
ππππππ.β
πhttps://t.co/kF3DUrSi51 (p. 1579)
A more recent analysis, Vicente-Serrano et al. (2022), concluded similarly, saying,
π¨οΈ βπ¨ ππππππ ππππππππ ππ πππ ππππππππ ππ ππππππππππππππ π
ππππππ ππ πππ πππππππππ
ππ¦ π‘βπ πππππ¦π ππ ππ ππππππππ‘ππ‘πππ πππππππ‘π , ππ ππππ¦ π πππ€ πππππππ ππ π‘βπ π€ππππ π βππ€ ππ πππππππ π ππ π‘βπ π ππ£ππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ‘πππππππππππ ππππ’πβπ‘π .β
π https://t.co/IwWv6qObTy
Instrumental data from the University of East Anglia's (UEA) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) shows that these conclusions hold through at least 2024 (see bottom left area chart).
πhttps://t.co/9dNRQEJ10f
Additionally, changes in hydrological droughts were found not to be due to climate change, but instead were related to other man-made influences such as land use and poor water resource management (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2022),
π¨οΈ βπ°ππππππππ οΏ½οΏ½π π‘βπ πππππ’ππππ¦ πππ π ππ£ππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ
πππππππππ π
πππππππ πππ ππ π‘πππππ ππ ππππ‘ π‘π βπ’πππ πππ‘ππ£ππ‘πππ π π’πβ ππ ππππ
πππ ππππππ πππ
ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππππ (π.π., π‘βπ πππππ‘ππππππππ ππππ, ππππ‘βπππ π‘ π΅πππ§ππ).β
πππππππ πππππ
πππ?
The theoretical foundation pushed by alarmists is the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation, which essentially states that about 7% more water can evaporate into unsaturated air (relative humidity <100%) for every 1Β°C increase in air temperature.
This much is true. But this nugget of truth is blindly extrapolated to mean uniformly heavier downpours. The problem, though, is that CC tells us nothing about rainfall rate, much less how much rain falls out of a given cloud. It also does not work very well over land areas where moisture sources are finite and there are topographic influences that can act to enhance or suppress rainfall (e.g., Adam, 2023).
πhttps://t.co/14YgpLQud8
A major study by Simpson et al. published in PNAS in 2024 found that in many arid and semi-arid regions (which cover vast areas of the globe), near-surface water vapor has not increased in recent decades (it has even declined in some places) contrary to nearly all climate model simulations in CMIP6 assuming near-CC scaling.
πhttps://t.co/0ovM0rXuMt
In the U.S., apparent increases in heavy rainfall are heavily contaminated by non-climatic factors. Dr. David Legates has documented how shifts in meteorological instrumentation have created artificial jumps in extreme precipitation records.
Between 1992 and 1995, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) began a modernization program, switching from hourly precipitation measurements taken manually from rain gauges to using Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), which sought to provide near-real-time observations automatically without manual labor. They adopted βtipping-bucketβ rain gauges which measure rainfall by collecting water in a small bucket that tips and empties once a fixed amount of precipitation has accumulated.
πhttps://t.co/bTcShQGr2t
While convenient for automation, βtipping-bucketβ gauges are known to introduce systematic biases, particularly during periods of intense rainfall.
1β£ They are known to lose some rainfall during intense downpours because water continues falling while the bucket is in the process of tipping and resetting.
To compensate, the NWS usually applies increasingly large adjustments as rainfall intensity rises. However, if these correction factors do not accurately represent the behavior of the gauge during extreme events, they may inadvertently exaggerate the magnitude of the heaviest precipitation totals.
2β£ Newer ASOS gauges also use Alter windshields, which reduce wind-induced undercatch by shielding the gauge opening from airflow. Because wind tends to deflect raindrops away from precipitation gauges, the addition of windshields increases collection efficiency and generally results in higher recorded precipitation amounts than older unshielded manual gauges.
πhttps://t.co/WC2zJ4TJ76
If you examine the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding the 99th percentile (top 1% heaviest events) per year (averaged per station), there is a spurious jump in the early 1990s that coincides with changes in instrumentation to more efficient rain gauges (bottom right graph). If this were purely a climatic artifact, the increase would be steadily upward, not sudden.
It is very likely that this trend exists elsewhere too as automated instrumentation has taken over, although daily data is spatially limited, especially in Africa and much of South America.
Seth needs to do more homework. This wasn't a very good, much less accurate presentation.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJ7KW6sXMAEf8YM.png)
![ChrisMartzWX's tweet photo. Stronger hurricanes? Longer droughts? Heavier rainfall?
Sounds pretty scary, but these claims are misleading or outright false.
ππππππππ ππππππππππ?
There is very little evidence to support the claim that tropical cyclones (TCs) are becoming measurably stronger. Klotzbach et al. (2022) examined data from 1990β2021 (homogenous satellite monitoring) and found decreases in both global hurricane-strength TC counts and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over that period. Also, major hurricane-strength TCs have not increased in frequency since 1990. If global warming were causing an increase in intensity, there'd be more major hurricanes (MHs) and higher ACE. These trends have continued into 2025 (top left charts).
πhttps://t.co/PWeGmQeRpL
πhttps://t.co/MQ9mYK57Er
The IPCC claims, however, that a βgreater proportionβ of TCs are now reaching MH status.
πhttps://t.co/kF3DUrSi51 (p. 1519, 1586)
This is very deceptive framing, however, because the increase in the ratio of MHs to total hurricanes only exists because the [more common] weaker hurricanes have decreased in frequency while comparatively rarer major hurricanes have remained fairly constant (e.g., Jewson & Lewis, 2020)
πhttps://t.co/uJIpXwzJ1h
What about rapid intensification (RI)? Well, the global number of RI events (defined as a β₯30-kt OR 35 mph increase in the maximum sustained wind speed in β€24 hours) have been fairly constant since 1990 as well, according to the Supporting Information document in Klotzbach et al. (2022). These trends have continued since the study was published (top right bar chart).
Increases in Atlantic TC activity (especially post-1995) are mainly due to multidecadal variability. NOAA GFDL's Dr. Thom Knutson has a very good webpage detailing that.
πhttps://t.co/wu0ZWtaWj9
ππππππ ππππππππ?
Changes in drought frequency and intensity over the last several decades are nuanced.
Here's what IPCC AR6 WG1 says on detection,
π¨οΈ βπβπππ ππ πππ ππππππ
ππππ π‘βππ‘ βπ’πππ πππππ’ππππ βππ ππππππ‘ππ π‘πππππ ππ ππππππππππππππ π
πππππππ ππ πππ π‘ πππππππ ... πβπππ ππ πππ
πππ ππππππ
ππππ π‘βππ‘... ππππππ‘π πβππππ βππ ππππ‘ππππ’π‘ππ π‘π ππππππππππ πππππ
π ππ π‘βπ ππππππππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ‘πππ ππ‘π¦ ππ ππππππ‘ ππππππππππππ πππ ππππππππππ π
πππππππ... π»π’πππ-ππππ’ππ ππππππ‘π πβππππ βππ ππππ‘ππππ’π‘ππ π‘π ππππππ-π ππππ πβππππ ππ πππ€ ππππ€, ππ’π‘ πππππ πππππ ππππππππππ πππ
ππππ
-πππ πππππππ πππ ππππ πππππππππ π
ππππππ.β
πhttps://t.co/kF3DUrSi51 (p. 1579)
A more recent analysis, Vicente-Serrano et al. (2022), concluded similarly, saying,
π¨οΈ βπ¨ ππππππ ππππππππ ππ πππ ππππππππ ππ ππππππππππππππ π
ππππππ ππ πππ πππππππππ
ππ¦ π‘βπ πππππ¦π ππ ππ ππππππππ‘ππ‘πππ πππππππ‘π , ππ ππππ¦ π πππ€ πππππππ ππ π‘βπ π€ππππ π βππ€ ππ πππππππ π ππ π‘βπ π ππ£ππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ‘πππππππππππ ππππ’πβπ‘π .β
π https://t.co/IwWv6qObTy
Instrumental data from the University of East Anglia's (UEA) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) shows that these conclusions hold through at least 2024 (see bottom left area chart).
πhttps://t.co/9dNRQEJ10f
Additionally, changes in hydrological droughts were found not to be due to climate change, but instead were related to other man-made influences such as land use and poor water resource management (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2022),
π¨οΈ βπ°ππππππππ οΏ½οΏ½π π‘βπ πππππ’ππππ¦ πππ π ππ£ππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ
πππππππππ π
πππππππ πππ ππ π‘πππππ ππ ππππ‘ π‘π βπ’πππ πππ‘ππ£ππ‘πππ π π’πβ ππ ππππ
πππ ππππππ πππ
ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππππ (π.π., π‘βπ πππππ‘ππππππππ ππππ, ππππ‘βπππ π‘ π΅πππ§ππ).β
πππππππ πππππ
πππ?
The theoretical foundation pushed by alarmists is the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation, which essentially states that about 7% more water can evaporate into unsaturated air (relative humidity <100%) for every 1Β°C increase in air temperature.
This much is true. But this nugget of truth is blindly extrapolated to mean uniformly heavier downpours. The problem, though, is that CC tells us nothing about rainfall rate, much less how much rain falls out of a given cloud. It also does not work very well over land areas where moisture sources are finite and there are topographic influences that can act to enhance or suppress rainfall (e.g., Adam, 2023).
πhttps://t.co/14YgpLQud8
A major study by Simpson et al. published in PNAS in 2024 found that in many arid and semi-arid regions (which cover vast areas of the globe), near-surface water vapor has not increased in recent decades (it has even declined in some places) contrary to nearly all climate model simulations in CMIP6 assuming near-CC scaling.
πhttps://t.co/0ovM0rXuMt
In the U.S., apparent increases in heavy rainfall are heavily contaminated by non-climatic factors. Dr. David Legates has documented how shifts in meteorological instrumentation have created artificial jumps in extreme precipitation records.
Between 1992 and 1995, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) began a modernization program, switching from hourly precipitation measurements taken manually from rain gauges to using Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), which sought to provide near-real-time observations automatically without manual labor. They adopted βtipping-bucketβ rain gauges which measure rainfall by collecting water in a small bucket that tips and empties once a fixed amount of precipitation has accumulated.
πhttps://t.co/bTcShQGr2t
While convenient for automation, βtipping-bucketβ gauges are known to introduce systematic biases, particularly during periods of intense rainfall.
1β£ They are known to lose some rainfall during intense downpours because water continues falling while the bucket is in the process of tipping and resetting.
To compensate, the NWS usually applies increasingly large adjustments as rainfall intensity rises. However, if these correction factors do not accurately represent the behavior of the gauge during extreme events, they may inadvertently exaggerate the magnitude of the heaviest precipitation totals.
2β£ Newer ASOS gauges also use Alter windshields, which reduce wind-induced undercatch by shielding the gauge opening from airflow. Because wind tends to deflect raindrops away from precipitation gauges, the addition of windshields increases collection efficiency and generally results in higher recorded precipitation amounts than older unshielded manual gauges.
πhttps://t.co/WC2zJ4TJ76
If you examine the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding the 99th percentile (top 1% heaviest events) per year (averaged per station), there is a spurious jump in the early 1990s that coincides with changes in instrumentation to more efficient rain gauges (bottom right graph). If this were purely a climatic artifact, the increase would be steadily upward, not sudden.
It is very likely that this trend exists elsewhere too as automated instrumentation has taken over, although daily data is spatially limited, especially in Africa and much of South America.
Seth needs to do more homework. This wasn't a very good, much less accurate presentation.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJ7KVzmXoAAlMz7.png)
Olivia
Online
Alex Scrimpshire πΊπΈ
@Scrimp22
I Play for the moments yet to come #WinTheDay #NeverQuit | Ole Miss Rebel | OSU Cowboy | Laurel, MS native | USM Management Prof #SMTTT | Follower of Christ
Hattiesburg, MS
Joined October 2011
2.1K Following
1.9K Followers
82.1K Posts
Β Pinned Tweet
For all you Bluey fans:
Who is the real main character?
@SouthernMiss announced that it will build a cutting-edge science research facility at its Hattiesburg campus, driving innovation in life sciences and interdisciplinary research.
Read about it here π https://t.co/3vapC4HHfG
#USM #Science #Research #Innovation #HigherEducation
@SteaknShake Whyβd you close in Hattiesburg, MS? Coming back any time?
@cptdankkk Stockton
Drexler
Dominique
Bird
Olajuwon
There's a new standard in the classroom π
#SMTTT
I don't care how many Alabama fans call me names through screens & internet connections.
I'm always going to bring up the fact that the guy so many of you allow to be the spokesperson and moral authority of college football openly admitted to tampering in back-to-back NFL Draft cycles and nobody did a damn thing.
Nobody investigated it. Nobody punished it. Nobody cared. People laughed.
So spare me the lectures about ethics and the integrity of the sport. You guys picked one of the worst possible messengers for that argument.
Trinidad is playing next year, Nick, because the NCAA was arbitrary and wrong--much less because he had ONLY played three actual seasons of college football, as the judge recognized. This wasn't the system or CFB running amok--this was the NCAA unfairly penalizing an athlete and the athlete seeking legal remedy.
And while we are at it, does anyone out there think Saban would have done anything other than sue for that final year of eligibility had Trinidad been his QB? Oh, wait, he probably wouldn't have had to because under the same exact set of circumstances, the NCAA would have likely ruled him eligible to begin with if he were at Alabama.
Growing weary of Saban's "testimony."
Al Capone issues stark warning on the devastating impact of legalizing alcohol
Can we stop giving him platforms to voice his biases? Cause yeah, the NCAA really had control when it was you in the driver's seat bagging recruits in a protected system that benefitted your program
Accurate π
I changed all my passwords to βKenny.β
Now I have all Kenny Loggins.
Iβm alrightβ¦
I just like living in the danger zone.
Alabama Football prior to NIL
Stronger hurricanes? Longer droughts? Heavier rainfall?
Sounds pretty scary, but these claims are misleading or outright false.
ππππππππ ππππππππππ?
There is very little evidence to support the claim that tropical cyclones (TCs) are becoming measurably stronger. Klotzbach et al. (2022) examined data from 1990β2021 (homogenous satellite monitoring) and found decreases in both global hurricane-strength TC counts and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over that period. Also, major hurricane-strength TCs have not increased in frequency since 1990. If global warming were causing an increase in intensity, there'd be more major hurricanes (MHs) and higher ACE. These trends have continued into 2025 (top left charts).
πhttps://t.co/PWeGmQeRpL
πhttps://t.co/MQ9mYK57Er
The IPCC claims, however, that a βgreater proportionβ of TCs are now reaching MH status.
πhttps://t.co/kF3DUrSi51 (p. 1519, 1586)
This is very deceptive framing, however, because the increase in the ratio of MHs to total hurricanes only exists because the [more common] weaker hurricanes have decreased in frequency while comparatively rarer major hurricanes have remained fairly constant (e.g., Jewson & Lewis, 2020)
πhttps://t.co/uJIpXwzJ1h
What about rapid intensification (RI)? Well, the global number of RI events (defined as a β₯30-kt OR 35 mph increase in the maximum sustained wind speed in β€24 hours) have been fairly constant since 1990 as well, according to the Supporting Information document in Klotzbach et al. (2022). These trends have continued since the study was published (top right bar chart).
Increases in Atlantic TC activity (especially post-1995) are mainly due to multidecadal variability. NOAA GFDL's Dr. Thom Knutson has a very good webpage detailing that.
πhttps://t.co/wu0ZWtaWj9
ππππππ ππππππππ?
Changes in drought frequency and intensity over the last several decades are nuanced.
Here's what IPCC AR6 WG1 says on detection,
π¨οΈ βπβπππ ππ πππ ππππππ
ππππ π‘βππ‘ βπ’πππ πππππ’ππππ βππ ππππππ‘ππ π‘πππππ ππ ππππππππππππππ π
πππππππ ππ πππ π‘ πππππππ ... πβπππ ππ πππ
πππ ππππππ
ππππ π‘βππ‘... ππππππ‘π πβππππ βππ ππππ‘ππππ’π‘ππ π‘π ππππππππππ πππππ
π ππ π‘βπ ππππππππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ‘πππ ππ‘π¦ ππ ππππππ‘ ππππππππππππ πππ ππππππππππ π
πππππππ... π»π’πππ-ππππ’ππ ππππππ‘π πβππππ βππ ππππ‘ππππ’π‘ππ π‘π ππππππ-π ππππ πβππππ ππ πππ€ ππππ€, ππ’π‘ πππππ πππππ ππππππππππ πππ
ππππ
-πππ πππππππ πππ ππππ πππππππππ π
ππππππ.β
πhttps://t.co/kF3DUrSi51 (p. 1579)
A more recent analysis, Vicente-Serrano et al. (2022), concluded similarly, saying,
π¨οΈ βπ¨ ππππππ ππππππππ ππ πππ ππππππππ ππ ππππππππππππππ π
ππππππ ππ πππ πππππππππ
ππ¦ π‘βπ πππππ¦π ππ ππ ππππππππ‘ππ‘πππ πππππππ‘π , ππ ππππ¦ π πππ€ πππππππ ππ π‘βπ π€ππππ π βππ€ ππ πππππππ π ππ π‘βπ π ππ£ππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ‘πππππππππππ ππππ’πβπ‘π .β
π https://t.co/IwWv6qObTy
Instrumental data from the University of East Anglia's (UEA) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) shows that these conclusions hold through at least 2024 (see bottom left area chart).
πhttps://t.co/9dNRQEJ10f
Additionally, changes in hydrological droughts were found not to be due to climate change, but instead were related to other man-made influences such as land use and poor water resource management (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2022),
π¨οΈ βπ°ππππππππ οΏ½οΏ½π π‘βπ πππππ’ππππ¦ πππ π ππ£ππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ
πππππππππ π
πππππππ πππ ππ π‘πππππ ππ ππππ‘ π‘π βπ’πππ πππ‘ππ£ππ‘πππ π π’πβ ππ ππππ
πππ ππππππ πππ
ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππππ (π.π., π‘βπ πππππ‘ππππππππ ππππ, ππππ‘βπππ π‘ π΅πππ§ππ).β
πππππππ πππππ
πππ?
The theoretical foundation pushed by alarmists is the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation, which essentially states that about 7% more water can evaporate into unsaturated air (relative humidity <100%) for every 1Β°C increase in air temperature.
This much is true. But this nugget of truth is blindly extrapolated to mean uniformly heavier downpours. The problem, though, is that CC tells us nothing about rainfall rate, much less how much rain falls out of a given cloud. It also does not work very well over land areas where moisture sources are finite and there are topographic influences that can act to enhance or suppress rainfall (e.g., Adam, 2023).
πhttps://t.co/14YgpLQud8
A major study by Simpson et al. published in PNAS in 2024 found that in many arid and semi-arid regions (which cover vast areas of the globe), near-surface water vapor has not increased in recent decades (it has even declined in some places) contrary to nearly all climate model simulations in CMIP6 assuming near-CC scaling.
πhttps://t.co/0ovM0rXuMt
In the U.S., apparent increases in heavy rainfall are heavily contaminated by non-climatic factors. Dr. David Legates has documented how shifts in meteorological instrumentation have created artificial jumps in extreme precipitation records.
Between 1992 and 1995, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) began a modernization program, switching from hourly precipitation measurements taken manually from rain gauges to using Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), which sought to provide near-real-time observations automatically without manual labor. They adopted βtipping-bucketβ rain gauges which measure rainfall by collecting water in a small bucket that tips and empties once a fixed amount of precipitation has accumulated.
πhttps://t.co/bTcShQGr2t
While convenient for automation, βtipping-bucketβ gauges are known to introduce systematic biases, particularly during periods of intense rainfall.
1β£ They are known to lose some rainfall during intense downpours because water continues falling while the bucket is in the process of tipping and resetting.
To compensate, the NWS usually applies increasingly large adjustments as rainfall intensity rises. However, if these correction factors do not accurately represent the behavior of the gauge during extreme events, they may inadvertently exaggerate the magnitude of the heaviest precipitation totals.
2β£ Newer ASOS gauges also use Alter windshields, which reduce wind-induced undercatch by shielding the gauge opening from airflow. Because wind tends to deflect raindrops away from precipitation gauges, the addition of windshields increases collection efficiency and generally results in higher recorded precipitation amounts than older unshielded manual gauges.
πhttps://t.co/WC2zJ4TJ76
If you examine the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding the 99th percentile (top 1% heaviest events) per year (averaged per station), there is a spurious jump in the early 1990s that coincides with changes in instrumentation to more efficient rain gauges (bottom right graph). If this were purely a climatic artifact, the increase would be steadily upward, not sudden.
It is very likely that this trend exists elsewhere too as automated instrumentation has taken over, although daily data is spatially limited, especially in Africa and much of South America.
Seth needs to do more homework. This wasn't a very good, much less accurate presentation.
![ChrisMartzWX's tweet photo. Stronger hurricanes? Longer droughts? Heavier rainfall?
Sounds pretty scary, but these claims are misleading or outright false.
ππππππππ ππππππππππ?
There is very little evidence to support the claim that tropical cyclones (TCs) are becoming measurably stronger. Klotzbach et al. (2022) examined data from 1990β2021 (homogenous satellite monitoring) and found decreases in both global hurricane-strength TC counts and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over that period. Also, major hurricane-strength TCs have not increased in frequency since 1990. If global warming were causing an increase in intensity, there'd be more major hurricanes (MHs) and higher ACE. These trends have continued into 2025 (top left charts).
πhttps://t.co/PWeGmQeRpL
πhttps://t.co/MQ9mYK57Er
The IPCC claims, however, that a βgreater proportionβ of TCs are now reaching MH status.
πhttps://t.co/kF3DUrSi51 (p. 1519, 1586)
This is very deceptive framing, however, because the increase in the ratio of MHs to total hurricanes only exists because the [more common] weaker hurricanes have decreased in frequency while comparatively rarer major hurricanes have remained fairly constant (e.g., Jewson & Lewis, 2020)
πhttps://t.co/uJIpXwzJ1h
What about rapid intensification (RI)? Well, the global number of RI events (defined as a β₯30-kt OR 35 mph increase in the maximum sustained wind speed in β€24 hours) have been fairly constant since 1990 as well, according to the Supporting Information document in Klotzbach et al. (2022). These trends have continued since the study was published (top right bar chart).
Increases in Atlantic TC activity (especially post-1995) are mainly due to multidecadal variability. NOAA GFDL's Dr. Thom Knutson has a very good webpage detailing that.
πhttps://t.co/wu0ZWtaWj9
ππππππ ππππππππ?
Changes in drought frequency and intensity over the last several decades are nuanced.
Here's what IPCC AR6 WG1 says on detection,
π¨οΈ βπβπππ ππ πππ ππππππ
ππππ π‘βππ‘ βπ’πππ πππππ’ππππ βππ ππππππ‘ππ π‘πππππ ππ ππππππππππππππ π
πππππππ ππ πππ π‘ πππππππ ... πβπππ ππ πππ
πππ ππππππ
ππππ π‘βππ‘... ππππππ‘π πβππππ βππ ππππ‘ππππ’π‘ππ π‘π ππππππππππ πππππ
π ππ π‘βπ ππππππππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ‘πππ ππ‘π¦ ππ ππππππ‘ ππππππππππππ πππ ππππππππππ π
πππππππ... π»π’πππ-ππππ’ππ ππππππ‘π πβππππ βππ ππππ‘ππππ’π‘ππ π‘π ππππππ-π ππππ πβππππ ππ πππ€ ππππ€, ππ’π‘ πππππ πππππ ππππππππππ πππ
ππππ
-πππ πππππππ πππ ππππ πππππππππ π
ππππππ.β
πhttps://t.co/kF3DUrSi51 (p. 1579)
A more recent analysis, Vicente-Serrano et al. (2022), concluded similarly, saying,
π¨οΈ βπ¨ ππππππ ππππππππ ππ πππ ππππππππ ππ ππππππππππππππ π
ππππππ ππ πππ πππππππππ
ππ¦ π‘βπ πππππ¦π ππ ππ ππππππππ‘ππ‘πππ πππππππ‘π , ππ ππππ¦ π πππ€ πππππππ ππ π‘βπ π€ππππ π βππ€ ππ πππππππ π ππ π‘βπ π ππ£ππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ‘πππππππππππ ππππ’πβπ‘π .β
π https://t.co/IwWv6qObTy
Instrumental data from the University of East Anglia's (UEA) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) shows that these conclusions hold through at least 2024 (see bottom left area chart).
πhttps://t.co/9dNRQEJ10f
Additionally, changes in hydrological droughts were found not to be due to climate change, but instead were related to other man-made influences such as land use and poor water resource management (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2022),
π¨οΈ βπ°ππππππππ οΏ½οΏ½π π‘βπ πππππ’ππππ¦ πππ π ππ£ππππ‘π¦ ππ πππ
πππππππππ π
πππππππ πππ ππ π‘πππππ ππ ππππ‘ π‘π βπ’πππ πππ‘ππ£ππ‘πππ π π’πβ ππ ππππ
πππ ππππππ πππ
ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππππ (π.π., π‘βπ πππππ‘ππππππππ ππππ, ππππ‘βπππ π‘ π΅πππ§ππ).β
πππππππ πππππ
πππ?
The theoretical foundation pushed by alarmists is the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation, which essentially states that about 7% more water can evaporate into unsaturated air (relative humidity <100%) for every 1Β°C increase in air temperature.
This much is true. But this nugget of truth is blindly extrapolated to mean uniformly heavier downpours. The problem, though, is that CC tells us nothing about rainfall rate, much less how much rain falls out of a given cloud. It also does not work very well over land areas where moisture sources are finite and there are topographic influences that can act to enhance or suppress rainfall (e.g., Adam, 2023).
πhttps://t.co/14YgpLQud8
A major study by Simpson et al. published in PNAS in 2024 found that in many arid and semi-arid regions (which cover vast areas of the globe), near-surface water vapor has not increased in recent decades (it has even declined in some places) contrary to nearly all climate model simulations in CMIP6 assuming near-CC scaling.
πhttps://t.co/0ovM0rXuMt
In the U.S., apparent increases in heavy rainfall are heavily contaminated by non-climatic factors. Dr. David Legates has documented how shifts in meteorological instrumentation have created artificial jumps in extreme precipitation records.
Between 1992 and 1995, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) began a modernization program, switching from hourly precipitation measurements taken manually from rain gauges to using Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), which sought to provide near-real-time observations automatically without manual labor. They adopted βtipping-bucketβ rain gauges which measure rainfall by collecting water in a small bucket that tips and empties once a fixed amount of precipitation has accumulated.
πhttps://t.co/bTcShQGr2t
While convenient for automation, βtipping-bucketβ gauges are known to introduce systematic biases, particularly during periods of intense rainfall.
1β£ They are known to lose some rainfall during intense downpours because water continues falling while the bucket is in the process of tipping and resetting.
To compensate, the NWS usually applies increasingly large adjustments as rainfall intensity rises. However, if these correction factors do not accurately represent the behavior of the gauge during extreme events, they may inadvertently exaggerate the magnitude of the heaviest precipitation totals.
2β£ Newer ASOS gauges also use Alter windshields, which reduce wind-induced undercatch by shielding the gauge opening from airflow. Because wind tends to deflect raindrops away from precipitation gauges, the addition of windshields increases collection efficiency and generally results in higher recorded precipitation amounts than older unshielded manual gauges.
πhttps://t.co/WC2zJ4TJ76
If you examine the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding the 99th percentile (top 1% heaviest events) per year (averaged per station), there is a spurious jump in the early 1990s that coincides with changes in instrumentation to more efficient rain gauges (bottom right graph). If this were purely a climatic artifact, the increase would be steadily upward, not sudden.
It is very likely that this trend exists elsewhere too as automated instrumentation has taken over, although daily data is spatially limited, especially in Africa and much of South America.
Seth needs to do more homework. This wasn't a very good, much less accurate presentation.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HJ7KYjQWAAAZhAg.jpg)
βWho spends the most has got the best chance to win.β
But thatβs always been the case right Nick?
Iowa had a player on campus for months and YOU took him.
Heβs wide open on all these shots because Clyde had to guard Pippenβ¦.
"The Shrug Game" π€·ββοΈ
Michael Jordan drilled 6 threes and scored 35 points in the first half of the NBA Finals 34 years ago today π€
(via @NBAHistory)
lolβ¦.
Alabama spent more than this on their roster under Saban before the NIL.
Last Seen Users on Sotwe
Suka Ibu Ibu Tua
Seen from Indonesia
BadGie
Seen from Peru
Sabun Mandi
Seen from Malaysia
Texlahoma BBQ
Seen from Brazil
Ψ³ΩΨ―Ψ§ΩΩ ΩΨΩ ΩΩΩ
Zeytinburnupasifolguncu26
Seen from Turkey
NicolΓ‘s BorrΓ‘s C.
cum tribute
Seen from Netherlands
R
Seen from Saudi Arabia
Milly Maker π©·UNLOCK FREE GIFT AFTER JOINπ©· 
Seen from Colombia
Trends for you
Most Popular Users
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
240.1M followers
Barack Obama
@barackobama
119.3M followers
Donald J. Trump
@realdonaldtrump
111.6M followers
Cristiano Ronaldo
@cristiano
108.9M followers
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
107M followers
Rihanna
@rihanna
97.3M followers
NASA
@nasa
92.1M followers
Justin Bieber
@justinbieber
90.6M followers
KATY PERRY
@katyperry
86.8M followers
Taylor Swift
@taylorswift13
80.6M followers
Lady Gaga
@ladygaga
72.1M followers
Kim Kardashian
@kimkardashian
69.4M followers
YouTube
@youtube
68.6M followers
Virat Kohli
@imvkohli
68.5M followers
Bill Gates
@billgates
63.4M followers
The Ellen Show
@theellenshow
62.5M followers
CNN
@cnn
61.9M followers
Neymar Jr
@neymarjr
61M followers
X
@x
60.9M followers
CNN Breaking News
@cnnbrk
59.9M followers