$APLD raised $1.6B in junk bonds to fund additional $CRWV data center capacity in North Dakota.
The deal priced at a 7% yield (down from 10% on a similar deal months ago) with demand 5x the offering size.
$ORCL earnings is a MASSIVE BUYING OPPORTUNITY ๐ฅ๐ฏ
โ Revenue: $19.18B vs $19.10B est.
โ EPS: $2.11 vs $1.96 est.
โ OCI Growth: +93% YoY
โ Cloud Revenue: +47% YoY
โ RPO Backlog: $638B (+$85B QoQ) ๐
A few details investors are missing ๐
โข 12% of RPO is expected to be recognized in the next 12 months ($77B)
โข Another 34% is expected to be recognized in months 13-36 ($217B)
Thatโs nearly $300B expected to be recognized over the next 3 years.
โข $75B of AI contracts include customer-prepaid or customer-supplied GPUs, substantially reducing Oracleโs capital needs.
FY26:
โ๏ธ Revenue: $67.4B (+17%)
โ๏ธ Cloud Revenue: $34B (+39%)
โ๏ธ IaaS Revenue: $18.1B (+77%)
๐ Operating Cash Flow: $32B (+54%)
๐๏ธ CapEx: $55.7B
Management expects:
๐๏ธ FY27 CapEx: ~$70B
๐ฐ FY27 Capital Funding: ~$40B
๐ Raised FY27 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $8.05
Guidance ๐ฅ
๐ Q1 Revenue Growth: 27-29%
โ๏ธ Cloud Growth: 58-64%
๐ฐ EPS: $1.72-$1.76
Long-term targets ๐
๐ฏ 31% Revenue CAGR (FY26-FY30)
๐ฏ 28% EPS CAGR (FY26-FY30)
This CapEx isnโt being spent because demand is weak.
Itโs being spent because Oracle has more AI demand than it can currently serve and is racing to build capacity.
The market is focused on the spending.
Iโm focused on:
โ OCI +93%
โ $638B backlog
โ Nearly $300B expected to be recognized within 3 years
โ Raised FY27 EPS guidance
โ 31% Revenue CAGR target
โ 28% EPS CAGR target
The market has $ORCL wrong.
This is one of the strongest AI infrastructure stories in the market and it looks like a buy here IMO.
$ORCL $638 billion in backlog. WILD. Bullish for Chips ๐ฅ
โข Customer Prepayments and Supplied Hardware. Of the backlog $75 billion now comes from customers who prepaid for GPUs or supplied the chips themselves. This reduces Oracleโs capex burden but confirms insatiable end demand for high end semiconductors.
โข Explosive Cloud Infrastructure IaaS Growth. IaaS revenue hit $5.8 billion in Q4 up 93% year over year and $18.1 billion for full FY2026 up 77% year over year. This is almost entirely driven by AI training and inferencing workloads which require massive GPU accelerator deployments.
โข Record RPO Surge. Remaining Performance Obligations jumped to $638 billion up $85 billion sequentially from $553 billion and 363% year over year. Management explicitly tied most of the recent growth to large scale AI contracts involving GPUs.
โข Forward Outlook. Oracle confirmed $90 billion FY2027 revenue guidance and raised non GAAP EPS. They continue emphasizing that AI infrastructure demand exceeds supply for GPUs power and networking with innovations in high performance setups positioning them as a fast growing cloud provider.
$MU $DRAM $TSM $NVDA $SNDK $ASX $AMKR
Biggest generational buying opportunity for $SPY is in June.
When $SPY crashes 10%-20% buy these:
1. $NOW ~$105 | Buy zone: $80โ$85
Near 52-week lows. Agentic AI platform still printing revenue. Market overreacted to selloff.
2. $BE ~$254 | Buy zone: $160โ$180
$2.6B Nebius fuel cell deal validates the thesis. AI power demand is just starting.
3. $SNDK ~$1,645 | Buy zone: $1,100โ$1,200
Flash memory demand exploding as AI storage cycle accelerates hard.
4. $NVDA ~$205 | Buy zone: $165โ$180
Off the highs but AI capex cycle just entered year three. Pullback is the gift.
5. $QCOM ~$204 | Buy zone: $180โ$190
Jensen just publicly endorsed $QCOM. ByteDance ASIC deal massively underappreciated catalyst.
6. $ORCL ~$202 | Buy zone: $160โ$170
Earnings tonight. Cloud RPO backlog growing 80%+. Bears get destroyed after this print.
7. $INTC ~$106 | Buy zone: $80โ$90
Google sourcing 3M chips in 2028. Turnaround trade with explosive upside from here.
8. $GOOG ~$360 | Buy zone: $300โ$320
AI Search monetization + cloud + Waymo. Most undervalued hyperscaler on the board.
9. $MSFT ~$400 | Buy zone: $360โ$370
Copilot enterprise rollout just hit NHS 505K employees. Azure AI is compounding daily.
10. $META ~$586 | Buy zone: $520โ$530
$145B capex plan + Llama dominance = AI moat nobody's pricing in correctly right now.
11. $AAOI ~$163 | Buy zone: $100โ$120
Optical interconnects are the AI bottleneck. AAOI is the pick-and-shovel inside the wall.
12. $LITE ~$807 | Buy zone: $600โ$700
Northland just raised PT to $1,200. Photonics supercycle is real and Lumentum owns it.
13. $PLTR ~$132 | Buy zone: $120โ$125
85% YoY revenue growth. US gov + enterprise flywheel locked in. Dip buyers always win.
14. $MRVL ~$264 | Buy zone: $180โ$200
Jensen called it the next trillion-dollar company. S&P 500 inclusion = forced buying incoming.
15. $AMD ~$461 | Buy zone: $360โ$380
MI300X shipments accelerating. Hyperscaler diversification away from NVDA benefits AMD most.
16. $IREN ~$53 | Buy zone: $30โ$35
Nvidia took a 30M share option at $70. That's a floor signal from the most credible source.
17. $NBIS ~$214 | Buy zone: $160โ$170
Hyper-growth AI cloud. $1.7B UK expansion. BofA just raised PT to $280. Too cheap here.
โป๏ธ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll DM you my top 3 for 10x-20x we can buy later this month.
$ORCL CFO: FY27 CapEx spending will rise substantially as Oracle races to satisfy contracted demand.
"...We'll continue those investments in our fiscal year 2027 with an expected net cash outlay for capital expenditures of ~$70B. This includes customer prepayments and timing impacts expected at around $20 to $25B, so our reported CapEx will be higher by this amount."
Oracle $ORCL numbers were fine but once again...street's having a hard time adjusting to this much equity/debt being raised:
- $40B of NEW debt/equity for FY 27
- Raising capex from $70B to $90B
Now, RPO was a massive increase from 553B to $638B, guidance was raised, they beat on Revenue/EPS, but it just feels like the market is tired of this much capital being raised for datacenters...even though all the growth is coming from the datacenter business.
$ORCL -6.2%
Great news for the big 3.
$NBIS, $CRWV & $IREN.
> "Customers are prepaying for GPUs before the datacenters are even built."
> "Prepaid and customer-supplied hardware now totals $75B"
> "Demand is so far ahead of supply that buyers are funding the seller."
$MRVL Marvell CEO Matt Murphy: Custom silicon growth remains ahead of prior expectations.
โLast time I had said custom was going to double year-over-year. It's going to more than double.โ
On the earnings call, $ORCL said they expect 12% of its $638B RPO to be recognized over the next 12 months and another 34% between months 13 and 36.
Management also said both percentages are expected to accelerate over the coming quarters, supporting its long-term growth outlook.
๐จBREAKING๐จ
$OPENAI IN TALKS TO LEASE A 10GW AI DATA CENTER IN OHIO AS $NVDA DISCUSSES CREDIT SUPPORT
"projected to cost at least half trillion dollars."
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