William

Practice investing, collect quotes, like fintech / blockchain. Opinions are my own.

[William @sdub2019]

@grok , list all companies the White House took a stake in.

[William @sdub2019]

@grok , which funds own $NOK ?

[Art of Speculation @ArtofSpecuycky]

所有人都在买英伟达，没人注意到这根连接所有AI芯片的管道——Nokia

上一篇写了为什么nokia是最便宜的光，今天再来详细分析一下4月份的财报和未来方向。有没有可能重现1999-2000年的parabolic move?

一、先说一个被忽视的逻辑
AI投资的讨论永远围绕着芯片——谁的GPU更快、谁的HBM供货更足。但没人问一个更基础的问题这些GPU之间，用什么连接？

数据中心里成千上万颗GPU需要实时互相通信，传输的数据量是普通网络的数百倍。现有的网络基础设施正在被这股流量压垮。打通这个瓶颈，就是下一个十亿美元级别的机会。Nokia就站在这个瓶颈的收费站口。

二、4月份财报说了什么
表面数据：Q1净营收45亿欧元，整体年增率4%。很多人看到这个数字转头就走。

但分开来看：
1. AI与云端客户营收年增49%
2. 光通讯业务单季成长20%
3. 营业利益率冲上6.2%，年增200个基点
4. 自由现金流单季6.29亿欧元
5. EPS大超分析师预期31%
6. 净现金储备近40亿欧元
7. 已启动股票回购

更关键的是，管理层把光通讯与网络互联业务全年指引从10-12%直接上修到18-20%。大型设备商几乎从不这么做——除非手头的订单已经多到藏不住。10亿欧元实质采购订单，带明确交付日期，不是框架协议。客户之所以愿意压上日期，说明数据中心土建已完成，服务器准备进场，就等Nokia的设备到货。

三、为什么是Nokia，不是别人
重点一：与英伟达深度绑定
Nokia与英伟达达成AI-RAN战略合作，把GPU算力直接整合进无线电网络。年底还有双方合作的光电共封（LPO）现场试验数据即将公布。
黄仁勋说Agentic AI带来1000%的算力需求暴增。这1000%的算力要运转，需要1000%更宽的传输通道。Nokia在造这个通道，英伟达需要这个通道。
两家公司的利益高度一致。
重点二：Infinera并购协同效应超预期
高利率环境下，Nokia凭借近40亿欧元净现金逆势完成对Infinera的收购，并购带来的毛利率提升速度远超华尔街预期。这笔并购很完美，营收规模越大，利润爆发力越强。
重点三：主动放弃低毛利，聚焦Webscale巨头
Nokia正在主动削减消费者光纤等低毛利业务（固网业务Q1下滑13%），把所有产能死死锁定在谷歌、亚马逊这类超大型云端数据中心客户。
表面营收看起来疲软，实际是在牺牲数量，保住利润率。这种"价值重于数量"的策略，在产业周期里往往是股价主升段的前兆。

订单出货比持续大于1，接单速度快过交货速度，积压需求将在未来几季持续转化为营收。

四、市场有多大
云端巨头2026年资本支出超过7250亿美元，整个潜在市场年复合成长率从16%跳升至27%。目前AI驱动的网络流量只占整体的20%。随着Agentic AI和Physical AI的普及，机器对机器的数据传输将呈指数级增长——现有网络根本撑不住。Nokia不需要抢市场，只需要站在这条必经之路上收过路费。

五、风险在哪
供应链瓶颈： 光通讯产品交期被拉长至12-18个月，上游数字信号处理器（DSP）大缺货，营收认列速度被掐住。订单很多，但转化成钱需要时间。
无定价权： Nokia的增长靠的是出货量，不是涨价。光通讯产品长期价格向下，利润扩张依赖规模经济，这是苦活不是躺赢。
新交换器业务存在转换空窗期： Q1拿到的设计导入（Design Wins）不会立即贡献营收，需要等Q2-Q3的订单转化。
2027年新架构才放量： 下一代光电共封架构能降低客户总置成本70%，但量产要等2027年下半年，别把2027年的故事算进2026年的EPS。

六、会不会重现1999-2000年的parabolic move行情？
1999年Nokia是全球最大手机厂，市值一度超过2000亿美元，两年内股价涨了超过10倍。那次是5G前身的2G/3G爆发周期。

这次不同，也更扎实。那次靠的是终端设备消费，周期性极强。这次靠的是基础设施刚性需求，数据中心建好就要配套设备，不存在等等看再说。

抛物线行情需要三个条件：
1. 需求端爆发: 7250亿资本支出，明年资本开支持续增加，AI流量暴增
2. 供给端瓶颈: 交期12-18个月，产能跑不赢订单
3. 市场认知滞后: 大部分人还把Nokia当5G周期股在看

认知差就是超额收益的来源。当市场还在争论Nokia是不是无聊的电信设备商，机构资金已经在悄悄重新定价。

七、三个必须持续跟踪的数据
1. Q2开始看设计导入转化率: Q1拿到的客户认证，有没有在Q2变成真实采购单，这决定下半年营收基础
2. 光通讯交期有没有开始收缩: 从18个月降到12个月是一个信号，意味着上游供应链开始松动，营收加速的拐点就在附近
3. 年底LPO试验数据: 与英伟达合作的光电共封现场测试，一旦数据亮眼，Nokia的估值逻辑将从"电信设备商"切换到"AI基础设施核心供应商"，PE重估空间巨大

八、总结
这不一定会是1999年的抛物线，但认知差带来的重估行情，逻辑上已经非常清晰。等年底英伟达LPO试验数据出来，才是真正的验证时刻。

#NOK #Nokia #NVDA #AIInfrastructure #OpticalNetworking #Datacenter #AI超级周期 #光通信

[William @sdub2019]

@grok Can you list all of them ?

[William @sdub2019]

@grok , list all the companies (500M+ market cap) that jumped over 10% after 2026Q1 earnings report

[William @sdub2019]

@grok , what are the odds that $MU becomes the company with the largest market cap?

[William @sdub2019]

Outflow while price went up? Make sense?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The semiconductor ETF, $SMH, posted -$2.3 billion in outflows in the week ending May 7th, the largest weekly outflow since the fund launched in 2011.

This follows +$1.5 billion in inflows in the preceding week, the 3rd-largest on record.

Previously, in April, semiconductor ETFs, $SMH and $SOXX, attracted +$4.7 billion in combined inflows, the largest monthly intake on record.

Meanwhile, the 3x leveraged long Semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, posted -$842 million in outflows in the week ending May 7th, its 5th consecutive weekly withdrawal.

Over this period, investors have withdrawn -$8.9 billion in total.

Retail investors are cashing-in massive profits on semiconductor stocks.

[William @sdub2019]

@grok, please suggest some commodity stocks as diversifiers based on this analysis

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

Fortunately we are now in the 60/20/20 era and there are places to hide. The scatterplot below shows that as stocks and bonds become more positively correlated to each other (per the two black lines), some of the diversifiers (especially commodities and managed futures) are become more negatively correlated to both stocks and bonds. That’s what we want. Cash can also serve as a good hedge here, as the prospects of ongoing rate cuts have disappeared.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

All those corrections were sharp but short-lived, as is typical during secular bull markets. By my count, the current secular regime started in 2009 and is now 17 years old. There are no signs yet that the secular bull is losing its mojo. If anything, the current AI-driven capex boom is adding more muscle to this aging bull, as the chart below shows. The S&P 500 index is not only moving further above the 150-year central trendline (pink), but even the secular trendline (yellow).

[William @sdub2019]

Help sleep quickly

[Abu-Sadeeq @Dongarrus1]

A camera was attached to a termite, and then released into its hole.

Look and see the kind of structures it builds inside the hole.”

[Dr. Eric Berg DC @dr_ericberg]

What has made the biggest difference in your sleep quality?

[William @sdub2019]

The lowest level of health maintenance is taking medicine;
the middle level is exercising;
the highest level is avoiding entanglement with toxic people and pointless conflicts.

You get angry once, and it takes three days to recover;
you argue once, and your whole body feels twisted and unsettled.
You think you’re standing up for what’s right, but in reality, you’re wearing down your own life.

[William @sdub2019]

@NFL_DovKleiman Wild!

[Naval @naval]

Self-directed learning through AIs is an autodidact’s paradise.

[Paul Graham @paulg]

If I could send my 18 year old self a message, it would have three parts:

1. Prestige is often mistaken. Follow curiosity instead.

2. There's no way to avoid hard work. It's not sufficient, but it is necessary.

3. Don't take your parents for granted.

[William @sdub2019]

Buffalo??
Sack 8 times in a game

[Dan Orlovsky @danorlovsky7]

Offensive Lines I trust heading to playoff run:

NFC:
Rams
Dallas
Chicago
SF

AFC:
Colts
Buffalo
KC
Denver

[Kevin Dahlstrom @Camp4]

Today I turn 55.

I’m the fittest, sharpest, and happiest I’ve ever been.

If I’m an outlier, it’s not because I’m built different or discovered a secret formula. The truth is far less glamorous:

It’s a million tiny choices, compounded over decades.

Here are 55 of them:

1. Walk 15+ miles a week, even if you do other exercise. Humans are uniquely made to move slowly over long distances—it’s critical to longevity.

2. Develop a writing practice. It’s the single best way to sharpen your mind. And remember, you don’t have to be a good writer to write. Start with 10 minutes a day.

3. Swap out your toothpaste, deodorant, lotions, soap, shampoo, and other personal care products for natural versions. Here’s a rule of thumb: Don’t put anything on your skin that you couldn’t safely eat.

4. If you have a positive thought about someone, don’t keep it to yourself—share it immediately. Encouragement defies the laws of physics: When you give energy, you also receive it.

5. Wear shoes with a wide forefoot (I like Topo Athletic) and wear toe spreaders around the house (search “yoga toes” on Amazon). Spine health begins with the feet.

6. Get sunlight regularly. Moderate sun exposure (without sunscreen) is hugely important for overall health.

7. Do a 3-minute deep (“ass to grass”) squat every morning. Deep squats are often called the anti-aging exercise. It’s been said that, “It’s not that you can’t do deep squats because you’re old, it’s that you’re old because you can’t do deep squats.”

8. Explore minimalism (it’s not what you think it is).

9. Set boundaries on toxic relationships. We tend to cling to relationships past their expiration date, and it takes a bigger toll on our health than we recognize.

10. Eat real food. Not too much. Don’t eat garbage. Binge occasionally. Fast occasionally. That’s the diet.

11. Learn about FIRE. It’s a great framework for financial success.

12. Don’t take antibiotics except in emergency situations. They’re massively over-prescribed and aren’t needed in most cases. Antibiotics have done untold damage to our guts, which is where health begins. Great natural alternatives are out there.

13. Get 8 hours of quality sleep each night. To optimize sleep:
—Don’t eat after 6pm
—Get blackout shades and cover LEDs with black tape
—No screens 2 hours before bed
—Try ashwagandha (an herb) to calm the nervous system

14. Stop drinking, even in moderation. People find all sorts of ways to justify drinking, but there’s no escaping the simple fact that alcohol is a toxin and it limits your potential.

15. Travel as much as possible. Nothing expands the mind like seeing the world. And travel doesn’t have to be expensive—the best experiences happen outside of fancy resorts, when you live like a local.

16. Let go of resentment. When you forgive someone, you release the prisoner, and the prisoner isn’t them… it’s you.

17. Show up on time, every time. Poor time management limits success more than most people realize. If you struggle with punctuality, stop everything else and fix that first.

18. Spend lots of time in nature and touch the earth. Humans evolved over 300k years to live in harmony with nature, and only recently have we retreated indoors. If you don’t spend time outside, you’re fighting biology (hint: You won’t win.)

19. Stop doing dumb things. As Leo Tolstoy said, “People try to do all sorts of clever and difficult things to improve life instead of doing the simplest, easiest thing—refusing to participate in activities that make life bad.”

20. Find your happy place and (eventually) move there. Most people live where they live because... that's where they live. We are products of our environment—choose yours carefully.

21. Find a hobby and pursue mastery. You can’t have a happy life without a passionate pursuit that isn’t your vocation. Your work—even if you enjoy it—isn’t enough.

22. Avoid mainstream medicine except as a last resort. The results are in—our healthcare (or more appropriately, sick care) system is badly broken and only makes people sicker.

23. Have a mindset of abundance. There is no advantage to being a pessimist—even if you’re right, it’s a miserable way to live. In a very real way… whatever you believe, you’re right!

24. Do hard things. Choose courage over comfort. Everything you want is on the other side of fear and hard work. As Jerzy Gregorik said, “Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life.”

25. Ignore haters. Hurt people hurt people. Negative/toxic people live in a prison of their own design. Don’t join them!

26. Say no. Protect your time and energy like it’s your most precious asset… because it is.

27. Become a water snob. As an alien said on Star Trek, humans are “ugly bags of mostly water.” You are what you drink—literally! We have Mountain Valley Spring water delivered in glass 5-gallon jugs and also have whole-house water filter (Aquasana Rhino).

28. Stop drinking sodas and sugary energy drinks. After a few weeks you won’t miss them, and a few months later they’ll seem disgusting. Refined sugar causes inflammation, which is the root of most disease.

29. If you’re over 35, find a good functional/longevity medicine doctor and start tracking your hormones. Modern life is hell on the endocrine system and restoring healthy hormone levels can change your life. As we get older, we either accept a slow decline in performance or we do something about it—choose the latter!

30. Develop a morning routine and follow it faithfully. Win the morning, win the day!

31. Invest in experiences, not things. People frequently regret buying things, but rarely regret investing in great experiences (especially when shared with loved ones). Remember, there’s nothing you can buy in a mall that you’ll remember in ten years.

32. Explore spirituality. It’s arrogant and small-minded to believe there’s nothing going on in our universe that is beyond our comprehension. We know less about our universe than an ant meandering on a sidewalk understands about this planet.

33. Have a strong bias toward action—doing rather than talking. If you ask a bunch of old people about their regrets, they’ll talk about the things they *didn't* do—the shots they didn’t take—more than the things they did do (even if it went wrong). As Wayne Gretzky famously said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Most people don’t take enough shots.

34. Stay lean. Men in particular are obsessed with muscle mass these days, but bulk doesn’t age well. The goal is to be strong but lean. The fittest guys in their 50s and beyond aren’t meatheads, they’re lean guys who are serious about a sport.

35. Curate your inner circle carefully. Surround yourself with people you admire and who challenge you to grow. Remember, we’re the average of our 5 closest relationships.

36. Be the fittest version of yourself. Your body is your only vessel for experiencing life—so treat it as such. Fitness isn’t working out a few times a week, it’s a lifestyle. The older you get, the more time you need to devote to your health.

37. Take the time to appreciate art and beauty in all its forms.

38. Think globally, but act locally. Too many people put their energy into far-away problems they don’t understand and can’t impact, while ignoring problems right under their nose. Want to change the world? Start at home.

39. Try psychedelics. It’s one of those things everyone should do at least once, and it might be the breakthrough you’ve been looking for.

40. Limit bad habits, including unhealthy thought patterns. We all have them—practice avoidance and find substitutes. Get professional help if needed.

41. Be a lifelong learner. Your brain is just like a muscle—if you don’t feed and flex it regularly, it will atrophy.

42. Find your purpose. People with a strong sense of purpose are happier and live longer. Lack of purpose sucks energy and magnifies depression.

43. Only take advice from people who embody the traits you want to have. Talk is cheap—emulate those who have DONE it.

44. The goal is not to retire and do nothing, it’s to build a great day-to-day life that you don’t need to escape. A life of leisure is a slow death. Happiness isn’t possible without a little struggle, uncertainty, and skin in the game.

45. Have fun! Do frivolous and silly things that make you smile. As George Bernard Shaw famously said, “We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.”

46. Whatever you want to do or achieve in life, start NOW. Don’t fall victim to “someday thinking” because someday never comes.

47. Accumulate assets—things that grow in value over time. It’s the #1 habit of rich people, and it can be done in tiny chunks. Instead of spending $100 on an impulse purchase that has no lasting value, put that money into an index fund or Bitcoin. It becomes addictive (in a good way).

48. Don’t ignore the big 3 canaries in the coal mine for health:
—Low libido (and ED)
—Frequent sinus & respiratory issues
—Depression
These usually aren’t medical conditions in themselves, they’re symptoms of an underlying problem. Find a good doc (outside of the mainstream) and figure out the root cause.

49. Have a clear vision for your future. How can you decide which direction to go if you haven’t clearly defined the destination? It sounds obvious, but 95% of people haven’t defined their “Ideal End State” in detail and in writing. (Check out my thread on this topic.)

50. Make your own decisions. We live in an era where most of what society tells us is wrong. Don’t be afraid to break from societal norms—if people say you’re crazy, it’s a sign that you’re doing something right.

51. Get hardcore about mobility exercise. As you age, it’s usually the knees, hips, and lower back that limit physical performance. 30 min a couple times a week can spare you a lifetime of pain. YouTube is a great resource.

52. Go all in on family. Get married, stay married, have kids. Burn the boats. In the end, family is all that matters.

53. Be ruthless with your time. Money comes and goes. Time only goes. Audit your calendar ruthlessly—cut the trivial, double down on the meaningful, and spend your hours like your life depends on it. (Because it does.)

54. Have a strong bias toward action. Be curious, try things, meet people—it’s how you increase your surface area for serendipity, the most powerful unseen force in our lives.

55. Reinvent yourself every decade. Over time, we slowly drift off course from our priorities, values, and true identity. Take stock and don’t be afraid to hit the reset button. Bold, calculated moves made for the right reasons almost always pay off—usually even more than you can imagine.

🎁 P.S. If you enjoyed this post, would you give me a birthday gift? Repost or comment with the item number(s) you liked best?

[William @sdub2019]

@aixbt_agent , @grok , why did blackrock dump $2.35b crypto today?

[William @sdub2019]

@PeterLBrandt IWM

[Barchart @Barchart]

Trading in the 1980s vs. Today