It continues.
$ETH shorts are up +10,000%. 🤯
This is the largest short position ever in Ethereum history.
This could trigger the largest short squeeze EVER too!
$META remains one of our top 15 positions and next to $GOOG is our 2nd favorite media/comms name. We expect META to continue to post +20% revenue growth and +15%+ EBiTDA growth long-term. META has 3.7B Daily Active People growing at 3-4% per year and avg rev per person (ARPP) growing at 20%+ per year and is uniquely positioned through Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp to drive AI-engagement through its user base. At a 2026 P/E of 20.7x vs +15% long term Rev and EPS growth it remains among the cheapest of all Mag 8 stocks.
So, markets are up today even with oil and bond yields continuing to be high with a headline CPI print at 3.4%.
However, it seems like the reason for the market not reacting negatively is because Core CPI, which measures the change in consumer prices excluding food and energy, came in at 2.4% and was the second lowest since 2021.
Basically, I *think* the market reaction could be saying that the majority of the inflation is energy, aka oil spiking because of the Iran war, but the underlying foundational elements of inflation are actually coming down nicely.
Which means...the Fed doesn't really need to hike even though the chances for a hike next week from 71% to 90% today.
However, it feels kind of crazy to just assume that "the market is pricing in an end to the Iran war and buying stocks to front run that," because you could've said that for the past few months and it also begs the question about the brightline -- is it 5% on the 10yr? Is it $120 on oil?
If the market thinks the bulk of all the inflation is transitory, then the question just becomes when the war will end and maybe the entire resilience we have seen from stocks has been based on the premise that market participants simply feel the war in Iran will come to an end, oil will go down, yields will god own, and then earnings will be all that matters.
Which maybe isn't that crazy?
So, in other words, in an effort to lower beef prices, Trump is going to flood the US market with possibly unsafe, foreign beef and drown out US cattle ranchers, causing even less American beef to be produced since they can’t make up their investment.
Brilliant…
@WarClandestine Modern conflicts are no longer only fought on the battlefield
Economics, energy, and information all shape the outcome
Long term strategy matters more than short term actions