Sean Mitchell

Macro Investor | Tracking Liquidity Flows
Former London Hedge Fund PM
Markets • Rates • Commodities

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Sentiment is the number the Fed will read. Michigan’s preliminary October reading fell more than expected. Near-term expectations hit an all-time low. Soft sentiment and sticky prices is the combination that does not give December a free pass.

#UMich #Fed

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

A $20 billion gap, a 1.2% index. Nasdaq Comp closed 27,197, −1.24%, two sessions after the record. S&P 7,765, −0.5%. Dow +0.1%. Friday NQ futures are up about 0.8%.

#Nasdaq #QQQ

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Thursday is a claims day wearing an oil costume. 8:30 a.m.: jobless claims, last week 197,000. All session: Brent versus $102, 10-year versus 5.30%. If claims stay tight and oil stays over $100, December hike odds do not need another speech.

#QQQ #Stocks

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Two records, one pause. S&P closed 7,819, first record since Aug. 13. Nasdaq Comp 27,600, a second straight record. Wednesday NQ futures are down about 0.2%–0.3%.

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Breadth check, one red sector. Ten of eleven S&P sectors finished green Monday. Real estate was the loser, −0.4%. The equal-weight problem did not show up in the sector score. It can still show up in the stock score.

#XLRE #Breadth

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Three numbers into the bell. Hold: NQ above Friday’s settlement. Fail: 10-year back through 5.30%, or Brent back through $103. The jobs miss already did its job.

#QQQ #Stocks

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

It does not buy a new high if the 10-year snaps back over 5.30%. It does not fix September’s hole under the 200-day. Health care was the only industry still hiring. It buys time until the next inflation print. Payrolls were the test. The long bond still grades it. #STOCK

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Challenger layoff plans this morning. Payrolls tomorrow. If jobs are soft and the 10-year stays above 5.30%, the Micron guide is a sector trade, not an index trade. Watch the Dow. It already voted. #Jobs #Fed

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Nasdaq won the month on memory and AI capex. The 30-year won the argument. If PCE is clean and Micron holds the $50B story, October starts with a bid. If either slips, Tuesday’s 26,798 is just a pause above last week’s hole. #STOCK

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

In early trading on Tuesday, Nasdaq futures fluctuated slightly, with some quotes showing a slight increase. The market is focused on this week’s PCE data and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, as well as news of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran.

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

NDX 30,350–30,400 is last Wednesday’s low zone. Lose that on volume and Tuesday’s 27,244 Comp record is just a weekly high. Oil first. Then the 10-year. Then chips. #STOCK

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Mag-7 and memory versus 5% mortgages and a hawkish Fed calendar (Barr, Jefferson). If 5.05% is a ceiling, Tuesday’s record gets another look. If 5.20% comes back, the week’s +2% is just a bounce. #STOCK

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Tech and comms carried the week. Financials and the long end did not. If 5.05% doesn’t hold as a ceiling, Tuesday’s record is still just a marker. #STOCK

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Nasdaq 26,936. −1.13%. Four-day win snapped. Off Tuesday’s 27,244 record in one session. NDX −0.85%. Futures still soft into the open. Records that last two days are a lease. #Nasdaq

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Japan holiday through today. Asia can’t confirm the high. Wednesday futures sitting on the line. Records that need cheaper oil and a dinner invite are rented, not owned. #QQQ

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Nasdaq futures are doing the work. NQ up about 0.6–1.0% near 30,200. Cash closed Friday at 26,522. Only major that finished last week green. Open has to hold that bid.

#Nasdaq #QQQ

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Three tells for Monday: NQ holding Friday’s 29,644 close, 10-year staying under 5.05%, Brent staying under $106. Break any one and last week’s Nasdaq green was just the bounce.

#QQQ #Fed #Oil

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Chips ran the bounce. SOX +3.1% Thursday. $INTC +8%, $AMD +6%, $MU +5.5%, $NVDA +2.5%. Memory and foundry headlines, not a new capex wave. SOX still roughly flat on the week.

#SOXX #NVDA

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Nasdaq futures bid about 1% after the hike. Composite closed Wednesday at 25,978, down 0.01%. Dow ate the hawkish presser. Tech held the tape. This bounce is oil + short covering, not a new policy regime.

#Nasdaq #QQQ

[Sean Mitchell @SeanMitchellF4]

Three tells after 2:00: hike vs hold, where the 2027 dots sit, and whether the 10-year stays above 5%. Chips bounce is optional. Policy path is the bid.

#NVDA #Fed #Nasdaq