SebC

[Cthulhu President @Cthulhu4Prez]

Tous ces demeurés sont adorables dans leur soutien aussi soudain qu’aveugle aux agents étrangers mais ils oublient une chose.

Le major Xenia Borchik n’est pas ressortissante d’un pays de l’UE. Sa présence est par conséquent seulement tolérée.

On lui demande de partir. Et comme elle ne le fait pas, on rend sa vie plus difficile, ce qui est notre façon de dire « j’insiste ».

Si nous nous comportions comme la Fédération de Russie que vous aimez tant, elle serait déjà en forteresse dans l’attente qu’il lui arrive un « regrettable accident » ou elle y resterait enfermée jusqu’à ce qu’on l’échange avec un touriste ou humanitaire pris en otage par le FSB.

De nombreux relais de propagande du Kremlin de nationalité française ne sont pas inquiétés par les autorités.

[girafonRobertmozcurtis @girafonarchive]

On peut en reprocher à Macron mais alors faire cette réponse à côté de Tonton Vlad prouve qu'il en a quand même une sacrée paire hein...
Se rappeler de la vidéo de Sarko totalement ébété, la comparaison est violente...

[Marc Cohodes @AlderLaneEggs]

I think the real story is who actually Invested with this guy.What allocators, what Professional and what diligence was done.. i would love to know an intersection between who invested in @SBF_FTX and Leo.. That is THE story. @gmorgenson

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

A little birdy in my DM's made a good point.

4X leverage is pretty high for sure but levering a 3X beta 4x is how you get serenity and situational awareness returns. It's just beta and leverage. No "expertise". Nothing you should follow and learn from. No Alpha you should pay for.

[Speculator @TheSpeculator0]

When you first take a finance job you get an hour long seminar of a compliance guy yelling at you that you can never share sensitive information with anyone (including your wife) and that you will go to prison forever if you do unapproved PA trades.

In tech you can just marry the chief of staff of the hottest private firm and front run all their announcements and people will hail you as some sort of visionary

[Compound248 💰 @compound248]

Leo was actually-85%, not -67%.

How?

Three thoughts on Leo’s letter:

1) Good letter, but incomplete

2) SA may be “up 80%” YTD, but I guarantee he had huge inflows in the past few months so his average client is much worse. Those new LPs are down MASSIVELY (and may not have beneficial exposure to the privates - see #3 below)

3) -67%. Okay, let’s say on June 30, SA’s AUM was $45b, of which $10b in privates (like Anthropic)…

3a. Decent chance those privates are side pocketed and not all clients have them (ie, older clients yes, newer clients no)

3b. 10/45=22% of the estimated June 30 AUM was privates. That leaves $35b in liquid asset NAV on 6/30. The WHOLE portfolio is -67%, and 100% of that loss is in liquid assets. 67% x $45b = ~$30b in losses. Applied to ONLY the liquid portfolio means his liquid assets fell 30/35 = ~ -85%

Yesterday, that left him a $5b liquid portfolio post-Citadel. That’s probably +20% in the past two days, so $6b now.

If you invested June 30 and the privates are in a side pocket, you are probably down 83% or so on the month.

Not great.

Better than a zero. But not great.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

My only comment on Leopold is from experience of closing down a fund. (Our problem wasn't losses it was a terrible job by our administration and our own back office to book our trades in an auditable fashion which caused an audit delay and redemptions)

Leopold had a margin call but that's not the big problem. He's liquidated his public book and paid off his margin and his shareholders who didn't subscribe in the last 3 months or so are up money. BUT all LP's now own a very different book. When we were faced with redemptions we sold perfect slices of our entire book and avoided side pockets. Selling the illiquid stuff was a challenge of course but the last thing we wanted was to force our remaining and loyal LP's to become massively exposed to our illiquid book while our redeeming clients (no longer clients) got out from proceeds from our liquid book. Why would you treat your loyal investors so poorly?

Just from press coverage of this event it appears the liquid book was liquidated to cover margin and likely if excess equity remained in that book that cash raised will pay redemptions.

LP's that stay will hold private illiquid assets only. That's a radical shift from what they used to own. Besides this perhaps they have less confidence in the team? Will they want to hold? Here's the thing. If you are an LP now you are staring at other LP's and when you are an LP of a fund with no liquidity you know that getting out first is best. Remember there are many many hedge funds and investment vehicles that you can replace your Leopold investment with. This isn't an investment decision this is a game theory redemption cycle thing. The fund needs to raise new capital if it can and that will dilute you. If it can't raise new capital redemptions pressure will cause a responsible fund to gate you. While the risk is now mostly gone. The leveraged holding of illiquid private stocks and the redemption dynamics make this a very difficult story.

[Sylvain Catherine @sc_cath]

C’est la même ânerie qu’avec les émeutes : « Les sociétés d’assurance paieront. »

Les sociétés d’assurance répartissent le risque entre les assurés. Si on leur facture le fonctionnement des fonctions régaliennes de l’État, ou leur défaillance, ce coût sera répercuté sur les primes des assurés.

Donc, soit le citoyen paie en impôts, soit il paie en primes. La différence, c’est que la collecte est intermédiée pour mieux l’embrouiller.

Mais comme le citoyen paie déjà des prélèvements obligatoires parmi les plus élevés du monde, ce serait fort de café de lui expliquer que les pompiers n’étaient pas compris et de lui envoyer la facture par l’intermédiaire de sa société d’assurance.

[Philippe Lemoine @phl43]

To be honest, I expected the US + the EU + the UK to be responsible for an even smaller share of cumulative emissions by 2100, but I guess the rest of the world is still projected to remain quite poor and developing countries will emit less per unit of GDP than rich countries did at a similar level of development thanks to less carbon-intensive technology.

[Pulp libéral @PulpLiberal]

Dans un pays libéral, la culture ne dépendrait pas des subventions financées par le contribuable mais octroyées par des élus.

Les artistes dependraient de leurs spectateurs pas de leur proximité avec le parti au pouvoir.

Restaurons la liberté, la liberté sauvera le reste.

[Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️ @bennpeifert]

very literally the crypto president. this epitomizes the culture of crypto

[MacLesggy @MacLesggy]

À l’heure d’une sécheresse inédite, où toutes les plantes, cultivées ou non, ont soif, rarement la Justice s’est montré aussi aveugle.
Détruire ces réserves est absurde. Si elles sont (vraiment) "surdimensionnées" il n’y a qu’à moins les remplir.
#adaptation #urgenceclimatique

[L3 G33K @L3G33K]

L'année prochaine (et les suivantes) toutes les cultures du secteur vont crever en été par manque d'eau après avoir été inondées à la fin de l'hiver ; on indemnisera avec l'argent public les producteurs de ce qui devait être notre nourriture, et on achètera la bouffe à l'étranger, depuis des pays où la justice et l’État ne sont infestés par les écolos.

[The Tectonic @thetect0nic]

⚠️ 🇺🇲 The New York Times, citing multiple people briefed on the matter, confirms the plane-switch story this thread has tracked for weeks: Trump moved from the Qatari-donated 747-8 to the legacy Air Force One during the Ankara summit after the Secret Service deemed credible a threat that Iranian proxy forces were targeting the president and whatever aircraft he was aboard, not the aircraft specifically, but a threat serious enough to trigger the switch regardless.

The Qatari jet currently serves as the VC-25B "Bridge" aircraft, a temporary transport filling the gap until Boeing delivers the long-delayed next-generation fleet, and it lacks some of the advanced defensive systems carried by the current VC-25A and the future VC-25B. Trump himself effectively confirmed the gap this week: asked about the jet's lack of antimissile defenses, he said it would soon be taken out of service to be "maxed out" with additional upgrades, a process Karoline Leavitt confirmed would take roughly one month.

Weeks of reporting on this exact vulnerability, first flagged, then downplayed by some officials as "not credible," now ends with the plane itself being pulled for a month of retrofitting, the clearest practical acknowledgment yet that the concern was real enough to act on.

[Cap-Hornier 🌊⚓️ @CapHornier_]

Féliciter une dictature communiste pour son contrôle des réseaux sociaux.
Ils ont lâché la rampe à l’Elysee ?

[@levelsio @levelsio]

🇪🇺 This year the European Union will again make more money from fining US tech companies

Than from the total tax income from Europe's own public tech companies!

[SebC @Seb_Ce]

@bauhiniacapital I’m old enough to remember when the lunch break was reduced from 2 hours - and how brokers were up in arms !

[DrScratch @DrScratch]

Supprimez le à la fin, puisque le but, assez manifeste, c'est de collecter de l'argent mais d'empêcher les salariés de l'utiliser. Soyez honnêtes à la fin.

[Baufinanciaphaster 👹 @bauhiniacapital]

Be very careful. This is only a very mildly technical situation but those who do not understand it could - perhaps without any ill intent - lead you astray.

The best local independent special sits analysts I know remain unconvinced full two-way opens on 29 July.

What is

[Ali Winston @awinston]

Whatever happens with the World Cup going forward, it’s abundantly clear FIFA is an unredeemable organization