SecureWealth

A Cape Town-based Financial Services Provider, managing local and offshore investment portfolios, as well as private share portfolios for 25 years.

[SecureWealth @SecureWealthSW]

Some concerning warning signals going off in the market now - valuations are at all time highs and COMPLACENY reigns supreme. We urge caution and patience as the next big opportunity looms! Please feel free to get in touch with Mike or Matt should you wish to discuss.

[SecureWealth @SecureWealthSW]

Herewith our latest Quarterly Commentary (One-Page Version) for September 2024. We lean heavily on Crescat Capital again, whose views align directly with our own. The Bear Case for the US Dollar, inflation, US valuations, Nvidia's outrageous P/B and gold are all touched on. Very happy to delve deeper into these insights - feel free to get in touch!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Gold markets are telling us something:

Over the last 3 weeks, bond prices crashed and the US Dollar surged, both historically BEARISH signs for gold.

Meanwhile, gold prices are trading 1% away from a new all time high and up +29% this year.

What's happening here?

(a thread)

[Kevin C. Smith, CFA @crescatkevin]

A thread on asset bubbles, inflation, AI hyperscalers, and the potential hidden secrets of the capex cycle:

🧵👇👇👇

The Federal Reserve has signaled lower short-term rates ahead, but two important macro questions have yet to be answered:

1. Do the asset bubbles of the post Global Financial Crisis zero-interest-rate-policy era still need to be unwound?

2. Has the Fed truly conquered US long-term inflation expectations or might Jerome Powell’s victory lap at Jackson Hole have been premature?

I contend there is no permanent new plateau for large-cap growth equity valuations. In my firm's view, the megacap tech segment presents one of the biggest downside risks to financial markets and the economy today.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

This week was a good reminder of this quote in my view:

“Gold is money. Everything else is credit” -- J.P. Morgan

[SecureWealth @SecureWealthSW]

Q2 Quarterly Commentary (OPV) - our latest summarized commentary, focusing specifically on Global Emerging Markets, US Technology Shares and Gold. Leaned heavily on Tavi Costa from Crescat Capital, whose insights are brilliant. Please get in touch if you want the full version.

[SecureWealth @SecureWealthSW]

Some fantastic research and insight shown here by Crescat Capital. History doesn't repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes.

https://t.co/tBsxhjVVQR

[SecureWealth @SecureWealthSW]

We're firm followers of Sir Jeremy Grantham-lead GMO, and this article greatly encapsulates our feelings towards global markets. Highly recommend giving it a read!

https://t.co/jzxOa4xNoY

[SecureWealth @SecureWealthSW]

Good Morning! Attached our one-page version of our December 2024 Quarterly Commentary. As you can see, positive on a lot of different sectors/regions. You can view our full commentary at https://t.co/kj8lRIhKmu