Sergey Logan

Surfing the waves of global financial system while observing humanity’s progress as a civilization.

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

Play smart. UAE pumps 2M extra barrels/day.

Oil drops to $80-90 -> Fed cuts rates.
Mortgages cheaper. Credit cheaper.

Here’s where the money goes:

$TLT — bonds rally
$XLF $JPM — banks print
$VNQ — real estate wakes up
$DHI $LEN — homebuilders boom
$RKT $LDI $TREE — mortgage up

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

Steep yield curve = banks make money.

30-Year yield: 4.94%
4-Week yield: 3.58%

Spread: +136 bps

Banks borrow short. Lend long.
That gap is their profit margin.

2022-2024: curve was inverted. Margins were crushed.

Now it’s back.

$XLF $JPM $BAC

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

The new buyer of U.S. debt has been found. The infrastructure is ready.

USDT + USDC already hold ~$180–200B in U.S. Treasuries — rivaling countries like Germany + United Arab Emirates.

At this pace: $500B in 3 years. $1–2T in 5-7 years.

How are you positioned for this shift?

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

US markets, Apr 29 2026:
National 30Y mortgage rate avg. still at 6.23%. 10Y Treasury yields at 4.31%.

The 2% gap between them is historically wide — rates could drop without the Fed moving a finger.

A real estate wave might be closer than most think.

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

1Y, time for distribution

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

Intel in 4 days (Mon open → Fri close):
+23% price move
≈ +$51B in market cap

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

Fed keeps rates

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

War fear → capital rushes to USD & Treasuries.
Oil shock risk → Fed keeps rates higher → strong dollar.

Short term: pressure on gold & silver.
Later: oil → inflation → real yields fall → gold breakout.

Trade the sequence.

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

Data-center/AI chip stocks since Apr ’25:
MU +192%
WDC +216%
STX +213%
TSM +101%
AMD +183%
AVGO +98%
INTC +105%

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

EMHY ~$39.79. Fed −2% next 3 yrs → price ~$42.87 + ~6.9% yield/yr → total ~28.4% return, CAGR ~8.7%/yr.

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

Bought U.S. Treasuries >4.8% in recent years? Post rate cut, they can serve as collateral for cheap funding while earning the coupon — unlocking liquidity. Missed it? That wave has passed, but there’s always a new one to ride in the economy.

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

Rate cut beneficiaries (Apr 23 → Sep 11, 2025):
LDI $1.09 → $3.51 (+221%)
SOFI $11.74 → $25.52 (+117%)
TREE $46.40 → $71.72 (+55%)
RKT $12.10 → $20.90 (+73%)

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

$36T US debt lives in data centers ⚡, powered by 220V sockets. Banks are soft, infrastructure is hard — the beautiful minds architecture behind global finance. Numbers that power human civilization’s movement — a perfect system, yet missing order. Time to make UX interesting.

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

If you think banks run finance, think again. They’re just the interface. The real engine is hard infrastructure:
- Cables ($PRY, $NEX)
- Data centers ($EQIX, $AMZN)
- Power ($NEE, $D)

Control this backbone, control the system.

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

Tomorrow’s cities are possible. We could build the cities of the future. The problem? Aligning resources, tech, and society. Engineering is easy; coordination isn’t.

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries hit record $9.1T — but central banks now own just ~14%, the lowest since 2011. Demand is increasingly driven by private investors, not official reserves. #USTreasuries #GlobalMarkets

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

AI runs on copper, chips, software, data centers — and the socket.
By 2030, ~730M people will use AI daily.
NASDQ: CEG powers them all with 24/7 clean energy.
Play the socket.

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

30Y U.S. yield >5% is a global reset. When the world’s safest asset pays 5%, capital reprices everything. Risk, growth, leverage — all under pressure. The era of free money is truly over. #macro #yield #globalmarkets

[Federal Reserve @federalreserve]

Our weekly #BalanceSheet update: https://t.co/LjSvhf5K21 #FedData

[Sergey Logan @SergeyLogan]

Play Smart.
Wealth → measured in currency → Currency → in numbers
Numbers → governed by math laws
Create a math model → Act in reverse order → Wealth grows.