Alex

Research Analyst @JBREC

I analyze housing and the economy to keep you informed.

[Alex Thomas @housing_alex]

Not surprised to see Case-Shiller reporting price declines today. Our Burns Home Value Index started picking up home price declines back in February.

Remember that Case-Shiller looks at contracts that were negotiated months ago. Our index is based on contracts negotiated today.

[Alex @Shabanomics]

🚨BREAKING🚨Federal Reserve RAISES Core PCE Inflation Forecasts:

2025: 2.8% -> 3.1%
2026: 2.2% -> 2.4%
2027: 2.0% -> 2.1%

[Alex @Shabanomics]

🚨BREAKING🚨Federal Reserve LOWERS Real GDP Forecasts:

2025: 1.7% -> 1.4%
2026: 1.8% -> 1.6%
2027: 1.8% -> 1.8%

[Alex @Shabanomics]

🚨BREAKING🚨Federal Reserve RAISES PCE Inflation Forecasts:

2025: 2.7% -> 3.0%
2026: 2.2% -> 2.4%
2027: 2.0% -> 2.1%

[Alex @Shabanomics]

🚨JUNE 2025: NO RATE CUTS

[Alex @Shabanomics]

😂😂

[Alex @Shabanomics]

Join our mid-year housing market update today at 10:00 am PST!

[Alex Thomas @housing_alex]

🚨 FREE WEBINAR 🚨

For the first time ever, we're opening up our mid-year housing market update to the public!

We'll cover everything you need to know about recent trends in the for-sale and for-rent spaces, along with a deep dive on demographic trends.

Sign up link 👇

[Alex Thomas @housing_alex]

🚨 FREE WEBINAR 🚨

For the first time ever, we're opening up our mid-year housing market update to the public!

We'll cover everything you need to know about recent trends in the for-sale and for-rent spaces, along with a deep dive on demographic trends.

Sign up link 👇

[Alex @Shabanomics]

So student loan delinquencies did spike as pandemic-era reporting pauses ended, but I'm even more concerned about the rise in credit card loans... Notably, BNPL loans aren't captured in here.

[Alex @Shabanomics]

Are we cooked?

According to the NY Fed, student loan delinquencies are about to🚀

"it is reasonable to expect student loan delinquency to surpass pre-pandemic levels when new delinquencies hit credit reports"

Heres how that could look. Scary? Probably not as scary as it seems

[Alex @Shabanomics]

Reminder that anything below 2.1 is below "replacement level", meaning long-term population decline unless offset by net immigration

[John Burns Research and Consulting @JBREC]

How many kids will the average US woman have by age 34 in 10 years?

(Graph Below)

[Alex @Shabanomics]

Pivotal jobs report out this Friday—sounds like a good time to check in on vibes...

66% of consumers expect unemployment to rise over the next year. Oops.

Consumer sentiment isn't 1:1 predictive of incoming data, but can be correlated directionally. DOGE cuts will be the focus.

[Alex @Shabanomics]

Original link: https://t.co/1FhcDIt36B

[Alex @Shabanomics]

Are we cooked?

According to the NY Fed, student loan delinquencies are about to🚀

"it is reasonable to expect student loan delinquency to surpass pre-pandemic levels when new delinquencies hit credit reports"

Heres how that could look. Scary? Probably not as scary as it seems

[Alex @Shabanomics]

For the broader economy, the main impact is a gradual drag on discretionary spending, which is already feeling pressure from other things.

[Alex @Shabanomics]

"Uncertain" has officially replaced "cautious optimism" as everyone's favorite phrase.

Here's how many times it's popped up in the Fed's last few beige books. Will the next release be higher or lower?

[Jay Parsons @jayparsons]

Invitation Homes (large single-family rental REIT) had its earnings call last week. Lots of color on the SFR market. Takeaways:

1) Rents for new leases fell 2.2% in Q4. That appears to be INVH's first rent cut in 10 years, according to data compiled by @JBREC.